US Attacks Iran 2026

[Szdfan]

The blockade is simply of ships going to/from Iranian ports (and Iran has been under sanctions anyway); it's similar in vein to the sanctions on Russian oil.

If Iran wants the blockade to end, they could probably negotiate having it end if they'd stop blockading ships going to Bahrain, Qatar, etc.

Again, the dynamic is that both sides think they’re winning. The more pressure Trump puts on Iran, the more they resist. Iran knows the blockade affects gas prices in the US and they know a midterm election is coming in November. They’re aware that high gas prices will have political consequences for Trump and the Republican Party.

What matters is not what they say or think, but what is actually the case. And it seems to be actually the case that Iran is militarily down, but not out. It's hard to say that Iran has won in any sense, except that it still exists as a greatly diminished state.

Iranian missile launches dropped sharply from 428 on February 28, 2026, to an average of 10–39 per day by early March, a decline exceeding 90% due to destroyed launch infrastructure. Over 1,000 ballistic missiles and 2,200 drones were fired in the first few weeks, with daily averages now falling significantly.

Key Data Points: Iranian Missile Activity

Conflict Start (Feb 28/Mar 1): Over 400+ ballistic missiles were launched in the first 24-48 hours.

Initial Decline: By Day 5 (approx. March 5), daily ballistic missile launches dropped by 90%.Current Rate (March/April 2026): Daily rates decreased to an average of 10–39 missiles, with approximately 120–143 daily drone attacks, say reports.

Cumulative Total: Roughly 1,300 ballistic missiles have been launched since the conflict began.

Destruction: Around 60–66% of Iran's launch infrastructure has been destroyed, reducing their capacity for large-scale barrages.

The figures, largely tracking attacks against Israel and Gulf neighbors, represent data compiled from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) and official U.S./Israeli assessments.

It's also hard to say that the US has won, though, when shipping still is not free to use the strait of Hormuz, and when we don't know the actual status of Iran's nuclear program and enriched uranium stockpiles, if such exist, and what the status of its underground missile storage and launching capabilities might be. The problem with some of that is there might never be a definitive answer and the US will just declare victory and quit the area.

I think that a minimal victory in terms of the US stated goals would be an Iran that doesn't bother other countries for the next 20-40 years. The problem is that even if that happens, it of course won't be immediately known and won't lend itself to anybody's political benefit or grandiose claims of a quick success.

I agree that the US has dominated militarily and decimated the Iranian military. However, as you also point out, wars aren’t won on militaries alone. That’s the area where Iran is leveraging their influence and one of the ways this conflict will continue.

[JohnH]

I agree that the US has dominated militarily and decimated the Iranian military. However, as you also point out, wars aren’t won on militaries alone. That’s the area where Iran is leveraging their influence and one of the ways this conflict will continue.

Iran is using their military to blockade other countries (not America) from shipping through international waters in the straits, and using their military to attack other countries' civilian oil and gas infrastructure.

In addition to being military action, according to you these things are war crimes. So it would be more accurate to say:

Iran is leveraging their military by committing war crimes to try to win the conflict.

[Szdfan]

I agree that the US has dominated militarily and decimated the Iranian military. However, as you also point out, wars aren’t won on militaries alone. That’s the area where Iran is leveraging their influence and one of the ways this conflict will continue.

Iran is using their military to blockade other countries (not America) from shipping through international waters in the straits, and using their military to attack other countries' civilian oil and gas infrastructure.

In addition to being military action, according to you these things are war crimes. So it would be more accurate to say:

Iran is leveraging their military by committing war crimes to try to win the conflict.

I don’t disagree. But according to you, war crimes don’t exist. I’m not sure how you can simultaneously argue that “war crimes are silly” and accuse Iran of war crimes.

[temporal1]

I keep in mind those on the forum who were wrong in many ways and wrong predictions so credibility is somewhat lost from the elections, pandemic, Covid vaccines, etc, I can take comments with a grain of salt.

I do believe IRAN will NEVER give up its intent and honestly from what it sounds like, neither does Trump, but he’s just playing this out towards what he believes he has to do.

When the U.S. went into Iraq, i was fearful for U.S. troops, mainly because our culture values life, we urge our children to respect others, to not fight or bully, to value peace, and more. We don’t want our children waking up with hate and fear in their brains.
Even when enlisted in the military, taking oathes to kill, i believe the underlying conscience remains.

It’s very hard for those raised so to comprehend a brain that has been groomed to hate and kill from childhood, that no sacrifice to harm is too great.

Prior to 9-11-2001, i think it would have been a very hard sale to convince most Americans such people existed, with hate specifically toward the U.S. i suspect this was the reason former presidents did not much retaliate (example, U.S.S. Cole). Americans felt secure and free, not hating, not recognizing hate in others. 9-11-2001 opened eyes to sobering reality.

i’m not for military action anywhere. i’m not in control.
not with “my” government (for instance, literally the gov celebrating Ukraine with embraces+kisses in Congress)
or other governments, certainly not with terrorists. i reluctantly acknowledge some cultures nurture hate and violence from very young. not unlike what history teaches about Spartans and their young boys. an altogether different mindset.

i haven’t read or studied, my not well educated guess is, Spartans were not terrorists as known today.
They were dedicated warriors. Not of the low-grade, “ambush+execute”/shoot fish in a bowl mindset.

[JohnH]

I don’t disagree. But according to you, war crimes don’t exist. I’m not sure how you can simultaneously argue that “war crimes are silly” and accuse Iran of war crimes.

Well, do they exist, or not? Do you think Iran committing war crimes en masse is a problem? Do you think Iran should "win" because they're willing to make war crimes their primary military strategy?

[mike]

I agree that the US has dominated militarily and decimated the Iranian military. However, as you also point out, wars aren’t won on militaries alone. That’s the area where Iran is leveraging their influence and one of the ways this conflict will continue.

For all the negative stuff we've heard about US mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan, those areas have not been major regional flashpoints in the years since US involvement in the same way Iran has been in the recent past. They aren't constant threats to their neighboring countries or to US allies like Iran has been. So there's that.

If Iran, like Iraq and Afghanistan, becomes simply a backward inward-focused state held back by its own lack of cooperation with other countries, but remains greatly diminished as a military threat in the Middle East going forward, the US will rightly be able to claim some success for this operation. If there is some kind of major internal upheaval that results in a new sort of regime that is friendly to the West, then the US will really be able to claim success.

We'll see.

[JimFoxvog]

Preserving lives is not woke or feminine.

The pope seems to think it's "woke".

[Szdfan]

I don’t disagree. But according to you, war crimes don’t exist. I’m not sure how you can simultaneously argue that “war crimes are silly” and accuse Iran of war crimes.

Well, do they exist, or not? Do you think Iran committing war crimes en masse is a problem? Do you think Iran should "win" because they're willing to make war crimes their primary military strategy?

I think Iran’s war crimes are a problem. I think the US’s attack on them is reckless. I think both sides are wrong and right now, everyone’s losing.

[Soloist]

Thanks. i read somewhere mines are cheap to build? They’re a hazard to all, i would think even those building+planting them? The will to harm can run deep. The will to harm is the foundation of terrorism.

The advantage of mines is primarily a deterrent. While there have been “surprises” generally everyone knows if there are suspected mines or not. The real problem comes in proving there are no mines. On land you can clear a route and under traditional historical mine use, it will stay clear as long as your side controls the route.
In ocean going you can clear a route but you can’t count on getting drifting mines. It’s a game of cat and mouse. Mines are specifically designed not to be detected otherwise you could literally send someone out with a rifle and a speed boat to clear them. It takes high tech detection equipment in the sea to spot the “shadow” of the mine and then it’s relatively easy to take out.
On land now days you can clear a path and then a drone can redeploy mines after so… a real challenge. Ocean going mines are much bigger and at least right now you need a boat to deploy mines.
Further there are several kinds of land mines and several kinds of ocean mines.
Simple land: anti personnel and anti vehicle
Ocean: magnetic mines, sonar mines, contact mines, torpedo mines… and likely more kinds, they sort of fill the role that fire ships used to fill.

China is openly supporting Iran and Russia is. The US has polarized its allies and none of them outside of the Middle East Arab allies are openly helping the US.
While it’s true the US can win any proper battle, bombing missile sites are covering them with dirt but not damaging the fortified launch sites which Iran can theoretically return to service in hours. If Iran has any aircraft of note, they wisely have kept it hidden at this point and aside from the US bombing infantry, there isn’t many military targets left which is why things like power plants and industrial facilities are going to be hit.
I suspect the US l incursion to rescue the pilot was a propaganda cover at an attempt to secure the uranium. I further believe it failed which is why we saw a major verbal escalation from the president following. Now after diplomacy failed (which I think most expected it to) pres Trump has an enemy unwilling to “total surrender” and now the result is a blockade. This indicates he doesn’t feel he can invade so he’s going to attempt to starve them out and I expect them (the US) to bomb strategic targets again and start ramping up pressure.
Iran like before doesn’t have good options aside from mosquito bites of attacks that don’t have any major tactical impact on a military view but politically are. The question really comes down to how the west/east responds going forward.
I know a lot of people are assuming if the midterms go against the Republican party things will change, but my assumption is that the Democratic party lacks the political will to actually commit us into “losing the conflict” regardless of how it started.
Best outcome for Iran I would expect is a cease fire through inaction not formal.
Best outcome for the US is regime change with surrender of uranium,
I expect something in between those to be the actual and I don’t see the current Iranian government giving up their strategic enrichment without major concessions and security guarantees which… doesn’t seem tenable as China is unlikely to publicly state a willingness to defend which means Israel or the US could attack again at any time.

[mike]

The war is going nowhere. The US is moving a third carrier into position as we speak and has been building up its forces for days.