Szdfan wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2026 9:42 pm
JohnH wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2026 9:36 pm
Szdfan wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2026 9:30 pm
The price of oil has already jumped up to over $100 a barrel today because of this announcement. If the US goes through with this blockade, it’s a global disruption. Everyone loses.
The blockade is simply of ships going to/from Iranian ports (and Iran has been under sanctions anyway); it's similar in vein to the sanctions on Russian oil.
If Iran wants the blockade to end, they could probably negotiate having it end if they'd stop blockading ships going to Bahrain, Qatar, etc.
Again, the dynamic is that both sides think they’re winning. The more pressure Trump puts on Iran, the more they resist. Iran knows the blockade affects gas prices in the US and they know a midterm election is coming in November. They’re aware that high gas prices will have political consequences for Trump and the Republican Party.
What matters is not what they say or think, but what is actually the case. And it seems to be actually the case that Iran is militarily down, but not out. It's hard to say that Iran has won in any sense, except that it still exists as a greatly diminished state.
Iranian missile launches dropped sharply from 428 on February 28, 2026, to an average of 10–39 per day by early March, a decline exceeding 90% due to destroyed launch infrastructure. Over 1,000 ballistic missiles and 2,200 drones were fired in the first few weeks, with daily averages now falling significantly.
Key Data Points: Iranian Missile Activity
Conflict Start (Feb 28/Mar 1): Over 400+ ballistic missiles were launched in the first 24-48 hours.
Initial Decline: By Day 5 (approx. March 5), daily ballistic missile launches dropped by 90%.Current Rate (March/April 2026): Daily rates decreased to an average of 10–39 missiles, with approximately 120–143 daily drone attacks, say reports.
Cumulative Total: Roughly 1,300 ballistic missiles have been launched since the conflict began.
Destruction: Around 60–66% of Iran's launch infrastructure has been destroyed, reducing their capacity for large-scale barrages.
The figures, largely tracking attacks against Israel and Gulf neighbors, represent data compiled from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) and official U.S./Israeli assessments.
It's also hard to say that the US has won, though, when shipping still is not free to use the strait of Hormuz, and when we don't know the actual status of Iran's nuclear program and enriched uranium stockpiles, if such exist, and what the status of its underground missile storage and launching capabilities might be. The problem with some of that is there might never be a definitive answer and the US will just declare victory and quit the area.
I think that a minimal victory in terms of the US stated goals would be an Iran that doesn't bother other countries for the next 20-40 years. The problem is that even if that happens, it of course won't be immediately known and won't lend itself to anybody's political benefit or grandiose claims of a quick success.
