Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Dan Z]

What differences between the factual events, and the Russian narratives do you think would be the most powerful in swaying the minds of Russians against the government?

How about mounting civilian casualties including women and children, destroyed apartment buildings and homes, the wholesale destruction of cities, trainloads of refugees, hungry and cold residents trapped by the war...stuff like that.

Or Russian military casualties, which seem to have been accidentally posted by a Russian tabloid before being quickly deleted.

This may create the most significant source of negative pressure on Putin. It's hard to cover up the death of a soldier. This is what the US Government feared most in Iraq - they felt the US population would tolerate dead Iraqis, but too many dead Americans would create a problem at home.

[Ken]

Dan,

You seem to be making an assumption that Russians would fundamentally agree with the Western perspective on things.

Russia is a dictatorship. Public opinion doesn't really matter in Russia today any more than it mattered under Stalin.

[Szdfan]

No, I think it is a matter of basic humanity. I assume many Russian folks, just like anyone with an empathetic heart, would respond viscerally when confronted with reports of wanton death and destruction of civilians and neighborhoods...especially if it comes at the hands of their own government.

Why do you think that? Very few Americans reacted to atrocities when they thought the US was "fighting terror"

I was alive during the Vietnam war - the free press highlighting American war atrocities was part of what helped turn public opinion against the war. I would hope the same could happen in Russia - many have already risked a prison sentence in Russia to stand against what their government is doing.

The reports on Russian military deaths vary widely. The Russians last week said about 500, the Ukrainians said about 14,000. US intelligence estimates 7,000. If it's already 7,000 Russian deaths, that's more than the amount of US soldiers who died in Afghanistan during the 20 years the US was there.

[Ken]

Why do you think that? Very few Americans reacted to atrocities when they thought the US was "fighting terror"

I was alive during the Vietnam war - the free press highlighting American war atrocities was part of what helped turn public opinion against the war. I would hope the same could happen in Russia - many have already risked a prison sentence in Russia to stand against what their government is doing.

The reports on Russian military deaths vary widely. The Russians last week said about 500, the Ukrainians said about 14,000. US intelligence estimates 7,000. If it's already 7,000 Russian deaths, that's more than the amount of US soldiers who died in Afghanistan during the 20 years the US was there.

It is more than died in BOTH Iraq and Afghanistan in 20 years of war. The US suffered 4,431 deaths in Iraq (of which 3,777 were combat deaths) and 1,921 combat deaths in Afghanistan.

Russian state media sources released a figure of about 9,800 dead and 16,000 wounded (and then shortly pulled it down). If so, 26,000 total casualties is a huge number and will likely start making many of their combat units non-operational for offensive operations.

Also if the 9,800 number for deaths is accurate then the 16,000 number for wounded is suspiciously low. Most modern militaries have about a 3-1 or 4-1 ratio of wounded to dead in combat operations. The US had about an 8-1 ratio of wounded to dead in Iraq. Either the Russians are greatly underreporting their wounded and injured numbers, which is probably easier to do than underreporting deaths. Or their battlefield medical response is far inferior to that of western armies. Or perhaps both are true.

[nett]

How about mounting civilian casualties including women and children, destroyed apartment buildings and homes, the wholesale destruction of cities, trainloads of refugees, hungry and cold residents trapped by the war...stuff like that.

How does that differ from the Russian narrative? Do you think Russian don't know that there is a war?

From what I am hearing from reporting inside of Russia, and from Ukrainians with family in Russia, they know there is a "special military action" that is taking pains to avoid civilian impact...but no, they are not hearing the whole story. And the Russian free press has been essentially shut down.

Is this news to you?

I know Russians living in Russia, everyone I've talked to is quite aware of what's going on. I'm not sure how we're getting such different stories.

Are the people you're talking to surprised to hear your version of events?

[Szdfan]

How does that differ from the Russian narrative? Do you think Russian don't know that there is a war?

From what I am hearing from reporting inside of Russia, and from Ukrainians with family in Russia, they know there is a "special military action" that is taking pains to avoid civilian impact...but no, they are not hearing the whole story. And the Russian free press has been essentially shut down.

Is this news to you?

I know Russians living in Russia, everyone I've talked to is quite aware of what's going on. I'm not sure how we're getting such different stories.

Are the people you're talking to surprised to hear your version of events?

A couple of weeks ago my Dad in Kaliningrad sent me a copy of his will because he doesn’t think he’s going to survive a NATO invasion. I’m just not sure how I’m going to get my inheritance in the middle of WWIII.

He’s also expressed fear about an American false flag chemical attack that NATO will use to blame Russia and attack. Oh and he’s worried about the upcoming NATO no-fly zone. He believes the civilian deaths in Mariupol are because Ukraine is using human shields and has recommended pro-Russia Western commentators to me that believe the war in Ukraine is being faked.

He has access to Western media, I’m not sure he’s just getting it from Russian media, but I think he’s also getting it from lefty critics.

[temporal1]

Lara Logan has never been a favorite reporter for me. For several reasons. But, i think she is competent.

She gets into several points in this report, there is video+text. (Read with skepticism, like everything else.)

i presumed she was exaggerating about Zelensky dancing in black leather pants+stilettos. Nope.
There are lots of pictures/videos of him “Dancing with the Stars”/Beyonce style.

Much more to pray about now.
Not so much that he danced in vulgar ways. Common in the world.
But, how cozy is he with far left agenda? N. Pelosi’s message to him from Billie Jean King makes sense now. He’s a hollywood guy.

Is he trying to compete with Justin Trudeau??!

“Lara Logan goes off in epic rant on Ukraine, citing ‘fake NGOs,’ Vindman, Hunter Biden, Romney’s son”
https://www.bizpacreview.com/2022/03/21 ... n-1215390/

Logan began by saying that “no one wants the people of Ukraine to suffer.”

Having said that, she then got to the meat of her allegations charging that there are those here and abroad that want a bigger war
and don’t want de-escalation of the conflict. .. ..

The problems may be worse than anyone imagined.


there is worse than this. (mods, please decide whether to remove it.)
this is not a central point in LL’s above report. it’s a part i mistakenly thought she exaggerated.

[RZehr]

It really is amazing how much difference Americans see this war compared to the second Iraq war.
This time civilian casualties are war crimes. That time it was “collateral damage”.
Last time it was “insurgents”. This time it they are patriots.
This time they are “resourceful and ingenious”. Last time they were IED-planting scum.

[temporal1]

I hope that you have not given up on Putin. As long as there is breath, there is hope for repentance and salvation. (I think that we should pray for all people, for salvation. When I was in In HS the worst known national leader was Idi Amin. I had it written in large letters on one of my notebooks: "Jesus loves Idi Amin." And he also loves both Putin and Zelensky, and waits for them to repent of all unrighteousness. He would gladly take them in, and give them new hearts.)

i wholeheartedly agree with you.

when i wrote, my thots were most with Zelensky, Jewish, caught between 2 imperfect powers, reaching out for earthly help, finding no perfect help answering, seeing his people+country devastated. Putin knows Jesus’ name. he must answer Jesus’ call.

i do not celebrate the deaths of enemies. in my case, executions of osama bin laden, and saddam hussein were sad days for humankind. not everyone should be free to harm at will. yet, annihilation of enemies is not the way of Jesus Christ.

thank you for describing it so well.

I also do not celebrate the deaths of 'enemies'.
I was saddened when Timothy McVeigh was executed (even though an uncle of mine was killed in that blast, so it was a lot more personal).

i’ve been thinking about this all day.
Jesus tells us to do even more than “not hate.” (yet, we do pretty well when getting that far!)

occasionally, there are reports of hardened criminals on death row, some victim’s families step forward with forgiveness, even requesting mercy for perpetrators. they describe how one more death will not bring their loved one back, it won’t remove their grief, but maybe worsen it.

Jesus’ way is best. it can be hard to understand or accept, impossible to explain. He asks for our faith.
As He did with Thomas.

[Ken]

It really is amazing how much difference Americans see this war compared to the second Iraq war.
This time civilian casualties are war crimes. That time it was “collateral damage”.
Last time it was “insurgents”. This time it they are patriots.
This time they are “resourceful and ingenious”. Last time they were IED-planting scum.

I suppose it depends on which Americans you are talking about. Close to half of all Americans opposed the war and support continued to decline over time.

But yes, the mainstream media certainly acted as cheerleaders for most of the early years until scandals like Abu Ghraib came to light. That was a shameful period for both our government and the media. And a horrendous waste of $2 Trillion dollars or $8,000 for every man, woman and child in this country. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-taxp ... udy-2020-2

Utterly shameful.