Cuban regime collapsing

[mike]

With friends and allies like the United States, who needs enemies?

For these small countries like Cuba, it's like pick your poison.

But it really is amazing that all these years, they have chosen to ally themselves with a country from the other side of the globe that has little to no actual ability to help it withstand a vastly superior nation that is 94 miles away and LITERALLY HAS A MILITARY BASE ON THEIR ISLAND.

Cuba barely matters on the world scene. It has to leech onto some great power in order to sustain itself. Russia isn't doing all that great these days. It would make sense geopolitically for Cuba to make a change.

Maybe they will form close ties with China.

But why?

[mike]

CIA Director Radcliffe was there today.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Havana, Cuba, on Thursday for a rare meeting with senior Cuban officials, an agency official told CBS News, using the visit to deliver a message that the U.S. was prepared to expand economic and security engagement with Cuba if Havana "makes fundamental changes."

The meeting came as Cuba is contending with a massive power failure to its national energy grid amid U.S. sanctions that have caused an oil and gas shortage crisis to the island nation.

Ratcliffe met with Raúl Rodriguez Castro — the grandson of former Cuban President Raúl Castro.

Multiple U.S. officials later confirmed to CBS News Thursday that the U.S. is taking steps to indict the 94-year-old Raúl Castro in connection with Cuba's deadly 1996 shootdown of planes operated by humanitarian group Brothers to the Rescue. Raúl Castro is the brother of Fidel Castro.

Also in Thursday's meeting were Cuban Interior Minister Lazaro Alvarez Casas and the head of Cuba's intelligence services, the CIA official said, adding the group "discussed intelligence cooperation, economic stability, and security issues, all against the backdrop that Cuba can no longer be a safe haven for adversaries in the Western Hemisphere."

Ratcliffe told Cuban leaders the administration was offering "a genuine opportunity for collaboration" and a chance to stabilize Cuba's struggling economy, while cautioning that the opportunity would not remain open indefinitely and the administration would enforce "red lines" if necessary, the official said...

[barnhart]

For these small countries like Cuba, it's like pick your poison.

But it really is amazing that all these years, they have chosen to ally themselves with a country from the other side of the globe that has little to no actual ability to help it withstand a vastly superior nation that is 94 miles away and LITERALLY HAS A MILITARY BASE ON THEIR ISLAND.

Cuba barely matters on the world scene. It has to leech onto some great power in order to sustain itself. Russia isn't doing all that great these days. It would make sense geopolitically for Cuba to make a change.

Maybe they will form close ties with China.

But why?

To stop the US from imposing blockades, to drive the US military off their soil...

[Szdfan]

With friends and allies like the United States, who needs enemies?

For these small countries like Cuba, it's like pick your poison.

But it really is amazing that all these years, they have chosen to ally themselves with a country from the other side of the globe that has little to no actual ability to help it withstand a vastly superior nation that is 94 miles away and LITERALLY HAS A MILITARY BASE ON THEIR ISLAND.

Cuba barely matters on the world scene. It has to leech onto some great power in order to sustain itself. Russia isn't doing all that great these days. It would make sense geopolitically for Cuba to make a change.

Wife: got onto a bunny trail into Cuban history, and I’m guessing the reason why they chose to align with Russia vs US was because the previous president/dictator before the Castros exploited them for American interests. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fulgencio_Batista I wouldn’t be surprised though if a lot of Cubans nowadays might want to be aligned with the United States

I think that’s an important point. We are talking about a long history of American exploitation prior to Castro. American dominance was deeply entrenched I in Cuba under Batista, which included not just business interests but also organized crime.

The 60-something years following the fall of Batista have included persistent hostility between the two countries, like the Bay of Pigs invasion, failed assassination attempts against Castro, the Cuban Missile Crisis and a damaging decades-long embargo.

Alignment with the US is not a given. Not everyone wants to be a puppet of the United States.

[mike]

Maybe they will form close ties with China.

But why?

To stop the US from imposing blockades, to drive the US military off their soil...

Could China feasibly do either of those things?

[Szdfan]

Maybe they will form close ties with China.

But why?

To stop the US from imposing blockades, to drive the US military off their soil...

And also ties and alliances with the US are not sure things either these days. Punishing tariffs and territorial threats to allies has a cost and I suspect a lot of smaller countries are looking for alternatives to alliances and dependencies on the US. The US is powerful, but right now it’s also unreliable and belligerent.

[Szdfan]

But why?

To stop the US from imposing blockades, to drive the US military off their soil...

Could China feasibly do either of those things?

China doesn’t need to force the US out of Guantanamo Bay in order to create a successful relationship with Cuba. China could invest, build infrastructure, buy exports and provide diplomatic support. Right now there are economic relationships being built that don’t involve direct US control. China is a big player in that.

[mike]

To stop the US from imposing blockades, to drive the US military off their soil...

Could China feasibly do either of those things?

China doesn’t need to force the US out of Guantanamo Bay in order to create a successful relationship with Cuba. China could invest, build infrastructure, buy exports and provide diplomatic support. Right now there are economic relationships being built that don’t involve direct US control. China is a big player in that.

I would rather see countries compete with each other through economic means than military. But that's a whole different category from the two things barnhart mentioned.

[barnhart]

But why?

To stop the US from imposing blockades, to drive the US military off their soil...

Could China feasibly do either of those things?

They could apply some pressure by threatening invasion of Taiwan and offer to back down if the US pulls out of Cuba.

[JohnH]

To stop the US from imposing blockades, to drive the US military off their soil...

Could China feasibly do either of those things?

They could apply some pressure by threatening invasion of Taiwan and offer to back down if the US pulls out of Cuba.

They could. A question is what exactly Cuba has to offer China.

China is currently busy issuing statements agreeing with the U.S. about the importance of reopening the straits and inking deals to start importing American oil.