Gaza - Post Ceasefire 2025

[joshuabgood]

Like Netanyahu mentioned, it sure is different from how the USA ended their war on Japan

[Ernie]

I concur with this comment in the X post.

Howie Hain

"It still just bothers me, deeply, that negotiating for bodies is even taking place. Sit with that for a minute."

And look at the disparity in the exchange. Israel is giving up over 600 detained Palestinians for 4 dead bodies.

This mirrors the disparity in destruction. Israel destroys and kills hundreds of times more Palestinians.

What baffles my mind is the fact that Hamas could easily have predicted this. For every Israeli they killed on Oct. 7, thousands of Palestinians would die. Yet they did the attack anyway. Why?

Terrorists can now conclude that holding first world people hostage, works. First world people will go to great lengths to get their own citizens home safely, even if it means trading for bodies or for criminals.
The terrorists and their families might get obliterated in the process, but in the end, holding hostages may help some terrorists achieve some goals. It is looking like Gaza might become a beautiful place, rather than a destitute prison that nobody really cared about until recently.

I do think Hamas underestimated Israel's response. And they are now giving up the remaining hostages before they lose everything. But it did give them bargaining chips for a couple years.

[Bootstrap]

The Arab countries were pressuring Hamas and the US was pressuring Israel. And here we are.

I think both Netanyahu and Hamas have been under pressure. Iran has become less powerful, Gulf States have become more powerful, Palestinians are fed up with Hamas ... here are some of the shifts that have led us to this point:

• Netanyahu: Used to deflect U.S. pressure via Republicans/evangelicals, but under Trump lost that lever. With Israel isolated, he’s been pushed into negotiations.
• Ordinary Israelis: Saw Iran’s proxy network badly weakened in the 12-Day War, which reduced the threat of disruption and made talks slightly less risky.
• Hamas: Sinwar’s war left them back where they started — Israel out of Gaza with a cease-fire — only after massive losses. Their “victory” rings hollow and legitimacy has eroded.
• Ordinary Palestinians: Many displaced multiple times, traumatized, and desperate for the war to end. Their exhaustion pressures Hamas further.
• Gulf States (Saudi, UAE): Leadership shifted from fragile republics to stable monarchies. Less vulnerable to Palestinian political pressure, they are ready to support a cease-fire and help rebuild Gaza with new governance.

I think there's a fighting chance that this may be real. Making it happen will require consistent, focused attention over time, perhaps by making it Rubio's full time job for a good long time. And it would require Trump to stay on track over a long period of time.

This could become Trump's greatest accomplishment.

[mike]

I concur with this comment in the X post.

Howie Hain

"It still just bothers me, deeply, that negotiating for bodies is even taking place. Sit with that for a minute."

This mirrors the disparity in destruction. Israel destroys and kills hundreds of times more Palestinians.

What baffles my mind is the fact that Hamas could easily have predicted this. For every Israeli they killed on Oct. 7, thousands of Palestinians would die. Yet they did the attack anyway. Why?

Terrorists can now conclude that holding first world people hostage, works. First world people will go to great lengths to get their own citizens home safely, even if it means trading for bodies or for criminals.
The terrorists and their families might get obliterated in the process, but in the end, holding hostages may help some terrorists achieve some goals. It is looking like Gaza might become a beautiful place, rather than a destitute prison that nobody really cared about until recently.

I do think Hamas underestimated Israel's response. And they are now giving up the remaining hostages before they lose everything. But it did give them bargaining chips for a couple years.

Hamas has not achieved any of its goals that I can think of. For its pains, Hamas has accomplished Gaza in ruins, exponentially many more Palestinians than Israelis dead, and the disintegration of its support from Arab allies. Probably the best supporters of Hamas these days are a few liberal westerners. Israel has far fewer threats to itself now than before the war, including obviously Hamas, but also Hezbollah, Iran, and others.

[mike]

The Arab countries were pressuring Hamas and the US was pressuring Israel. And here we are.

I think both Netanyahu and Hamas have been under pressure. Iran has become less powerful, Gulf States have become more powerful, Palestinians are fed up with Hamas ... here are some of the shifts that have led us to this point:

• Netanyahu: Used to deflect U.S. pressure via Republicans/evangelicals, but under Trump lost that lever. With Israel isolated, he’s been pushed into negotiations.
• Ordinary Israelis: Saw Iran’s proxy network badly weakened in the 12-Day War, which reduced the threat of disruption and made talks slightly less risky.
• Hamas: Sinwar’s war left them back where they started — Israel out of Gaza with a cease-fire — only after massive losses. Their “victory” rings hollow and legitimacy has eroded.
• Ordinary Palestinians: Many displaced multiple times, traumatized, and desperate for the war to end. Their exhaustion pressures Hamas further.
• Gulf States (Saudi, UAE): Leadership shifted from fragile republics to stable monarchies. Less vulnerable to Palestinian political pressure, they are ready to support a cease-fire and help rebuild Gaza with new governance.

I think there's a fighting chance that this may be real. Making it happen will require consistent, focused attention over time, perhaps by making it Rubio's full time job for a good long time. And it would require Trump to stay on track over a long period of time.

This could become Trump's greatest accomplishment.

If he can grow the list of signatories to the Abraham Accords on the back of this (if this deal holds anyway), he will really seem like an unstoppable force for peace.

[Bootstrap]

Hamas has not achieved any of its goals that I can think of. For its pains, Hamas has accomplished Gaza in ruins, exponentially many more Palestinians than Israelis dead, and the disintegration of its support from Arab allies. Probably the best supporters of Hamas these days are a few liberal westerners. Israel has far fewer threats to itself now than before the war, including obviously Hamas, but also Hezbollah, Iran, and others.

Thomas Friedman said put it this way:

Mr. Sinwar, you just achieved what you called a great victory. An Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a restoration of the cease-fire. What did you have on Oct. 6, 2023? You had Israel out of Gaza and a cease-fire.

You launched this war to get yourself exactly where you were the day before. Shame on you.

Yes, you drew attention to the Palestinian cause. But that attention will only be translated into something positive if it actually leads to exactly the solution you didn’t want, which was two states for two people. So you will go down in infamy.

[mike]

Hamas has not achieved any of its goals that I can think of. For its pains, Hamas has accomplished Gaza in ruins, exponentially many more Palestinians than Israelis dead, and the disintegration of its support from Arab allies. Probably the best supporters of Hamas these days are a few liberal westerners. Israel has far fewer threats to itself now than before the war, including obviously Hamas, but also Hezbollah, Iran, and others.

Thomas Friedman said put it this way:

Mr. Sinwar, you just achieved what you called a great victory. An Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a restoration of the cease-fire. What did you have on Oct. 6, 2023? You had Israel out of Gaza and a cease-fire.

You launched this war to get yourself exactly where you were the day before. Shame on you.

Yes, you drew attention to the Palestinian cause. But that attention will only be translated into something positive if it actually leads to exactly the solution you didn’t want, which was two states for two people. So you will go down in infamy.

One could only wish for a similar end to the Ukraine conflict, where the aggressor gets so little for its efforts.

[JohnH]

A silver lining to this whole thing would be if Hamas has far less legitimacy or even ceases to be politically relevant, and gets replaced by some other political entity. And, for whatever one's opinion of Qatar, UAE et al is, life would be much better for Gazans with the sort of development seen in Doha and Sharja than what they've been living under so far.

Oddly enough, Israel has less legitimacy at the end of this. Iran has less legitimacy. But it may be a good thing if various bellicose nations have far less respect on the international stage.

[Bootstrap]

Like Netanyahu mentioned, it sure is different from how the USA ended their war on Japan

After the war in Japan, the US provided food aid and financial assistance, supported key industries like steel, coal, and shipping, and set it up for the "Japanese Economic Miracle".

I think the Gaza proposal would do similar things for Gaza.

[JohnH]

Like Netanyahu mentioned, it sure is different from how the USA ended their war on Japan

Is it?

The casualties from Hiroshima and Nagasaki were around 165,000. Palestinian casualties are estimated at 70,000.