Israel strikes Iran

[Ken]

So what is the end game here? Anyone have any guesses?

The endgame I see is that Iran moves a lot closer to North Korea and gets nuclear capabilities faster that way, and the two countries start cooperating on rocket technology - if they haven't already. I was a bit surprised to see a ballistic missile made it past the Iron Dome today, although it struck about 400 yards off from its target. (The target seems to have been a building that houses various Israeli military facilities - on Google Maps, it is not there. It is just an empty park, "green" on Google Maps. When you're standing in front of it, though... there's a building there with lights on and all kinds of antennae on the roof.)

So this will have a few effects:

1. Iran gets closer to nuclear technology and other "rogue" states will draw closer to Iran.
2. Iran will probably start to play around with hypersonic missiles. Russia has already developed them, although they haven't used them other than a demonstration with no explosive warhead against Ukraine once.
3. North Korea ends up stronger because of this.
4. Iran may end up eventually being a nuclear state, which is a big minus for us.
5. The Iranian political leadership gets a big boost in public support, which was formerly flagging. Israel doing this is the best thing that could have possibly happened to the Iranian power structure - other than the few guys they assassinated, that is.
6. Netanyahu manages to make himself still be relevant and dodge losing his office and facing prosecution from the 49% or so of Israelis who really don't like him.
7. Attempts to normalize relations between both Israel and other Arab states, and U.S.-Arab relations, get worse as a result, because this kind of thing is extremely unpopular with the average Arab person.

It's also apparent Israel is going off and making these decisions on their own, but trying to drag the rest of the West with them. They have a long history of doing this.

This is also a big gift to Russia, who is otherwise losing left and right, but now gets to be relevant since they are buddies with Iran, and most of the world will condemn the Israelis for this. This just made every Russian diplomat's job easier as they are trying to ink crooked deals in Africa and other places for arms sales.

I think the biggest objective was to torpedo negotiations with Iran. And secondarily, drag the US into a war with Iran in which American blood and treasure is spent degrading what Israel sees as their #1 foe.

Trump is being exceedingly weak if he let Israel (Netanyahu) torpedo the US negotiations with Iran. Or, alternatively, he is being disingenuous if that was the plan all along and the US was giving the thumbs up and assisting with this raid.

I agree it will drive Iran further towards nuclear capability and probably end up strengthening the regime. I'm not sure that Iran really even needs North Korean technology. I don't think the issue is so much figuring out HOW to build nuclear weapons. The bigger issue is accumulating sufficient weapons grade materials. And that isn't really something that North Korea can help with. Iran needs to do that on their own. I don't think the knowledge of how to build nuclear weapons is really that secret anymore in this day and age for weapons physicists who work in this area. And Iran doesn't really need North Korea. They have wealth. I'm sure there are plenty of Russian nuclear experts for hire.

[Thomas_muntzer]

So you really can’t blame them for not trusting Trump. He has proven to be the least trustworthy president in American history outside of maybe Andrew Jackson and his treatment of Native Americans.

In this one i must agree with you ken iran signed the JCPOA in 2015 and iran fulfilled the agreement completely it was a good deal from which trump whitdraw unilaterally without justification

[Thomas_muntzer]

i understand nothing.

Video captures moment missile hits buildings in Tel Aviv
https://www.albawaba.com/news/video-cap ... ts-1606738

ALBAWABA - Iran conducted a massive missile strike on Israel Thursday night, its most powerful direct attack on Israeli land to date, in a dramatic escalation of regional tensions. Only eighteen hours had passed since Israel launched a broad military campaign against Iranian sites when the attack occurred.

Also Read
Several Iranian missiles hit various areas in IsraelSeveral Iranian missiles hit various areas in Israel
Iran Issues a Serious Warning and Verifies Strikes ..

Iran is not gaza they have the capabilities to strike back

[HondurasKeiser]

So you really can’t blame them for not trusting Trump. He has proven to be the least trustworthy president in American history outside of maybe Andrew Jackson and his treatment of Native Americans.

In this one i must agree with you ken iran signed the JCPOA in 2015 and iran fulfilled the agreement completely it was a good deal from which trump whitdraw unilaterally without justification

What in your estimation made it a good deal?

[HondurasKeiser]

i understand nothing.

Video captures moment missile hits buildings in Tel Aviv
https://www.albawaba.com/news/video-cap ... ts-1606738

ALBAWABA - Iran conducted a massive missile strike on Israel Thursday night, its most powerful direct attack on Israeli land to date, in a dramatic escalation of regional tensions. Only eighteen hours had passed since Israel launched a broad military campaign against Iranian sites when the attack occurred.

Also Read
Several Iranian missiles hit various areas in IsraelSeveral Iranian missiles hit various areas in Israel
Iran Issues a Serious Warning and Verifies Strikes ..

Perhaps Israel shouldn’t have struck first. This is like Russia complaining when Ukraine fights back.

I think they blame Iran for October 7th.

[HondurasKeiser]

It’s particularly galling to see “prayer” for a belligerent.

They're both belligerent in this case...but regardless. We should pray for both.

There really wasn't any reason for Israel to start up with their airstrikes. "Iran is developing nuclear weapons!" is a refrain I have been hearing my entire life - and doesn't Israel have nuclear weapons, too? Would it be OK for Iran to conduct airstrikes against Israel because they are building nuclear bombs?

Be honest, which country has been threatening to wipe the other off the face of the earth for the past 15 years? The notion that Israel had no provocation is silly and ideologically-driven.

[Thomas_muntzer]

So what is the end game here? Anyone have any guesses?

Actual war with Iran is unwinnable in any conventional sense. Neither Israel nor Israel and the US combined have the capability to win a conventional war against Iran. It would take millions of troops and a logistics capacity that we have lacked since WW2. Iran is the size of Germany, France, and Spain combined. The US occupation force in Germany at the end of WW2 was 1.6 million troops. And that was just for the American sector. The British, French, and USSR had millions more in their sectors. Where would those troops come from? Israel can’t tie down Gaza and that is about 360 square km. Iran, by contrast is 1.6 MILLION square km with a population of 90 million.

Ending the Iranian nuclear program is likely impossible with air strikes alone. Strategic air wars have a place as they did in WW2. But this precision strike stuff isn’t going to get that done. And strategic air wars of the WW2 variety were never about eliminating specific targets. They had other objectives.

Regime change is likely uncontrollable as we found in both Iraq and Afghanistan. We can possibly decapitate and bring down a regime as we did with Saddam Hussein and the original Taliban. But controlling what replaces it is impossible. At least without millions of occupying troops and decades. And in a world where might makes right, the most vicious regime opponents are the ones likely to fill the vacuum and rise to the top.

So again, what is the end game here? Do they have one?

A real danger of regime change is the new regime can be more extremist than khamenei

[Thomas_muntzer]

What in your estimation made it a good deal?

It forbide iran form getting a nuclear weapon. It required Iran to allow inspections by independent international organizations to ensure that it was not enriching uranium.

this are the major provisions

Source https://www.economist.com/news/briefing ... -bit-safer

I really doubt trump can get even a similar deal after the strikes

[Ken]

According to today's Wall Street Journal, the restarted US-Iran nuclear negotiations were a ruse on the part of the US to provide cover for this Israeli attack. So I think we can very safely assume no one will be negotiating with the US (or Trump) after this. Most certainly not Iran. Here is a gift-link to the whole article: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/i ... _permalink

In Twist, U.S. Diplomacy Served as Cover for Israeli Surprise Attack
Talks seen as a way to keep the peace gave Israel the opportunity to land heavy military blows

U.S. negotiations with Iran aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear program were widely seen as an important way to preserve regional peace. They ended up being the perfect cover for a surprise Israeli attack.

With a sixth round of talks between Trump administration envoy Steve Witkoff and his Iranian counterparts set for Sunday in Oman, Israeli and U.S. officials warned of military action if Iran didn’t agree to end its production of fissile material that can be used in nuclear weapons.

Instead, Israel hit first, achieving tactical surprise through a devastating series of blows that killed three top Iranian generals and key nuclear scientists and hit sites linked to the country’s nuclear programs.

On Friday morning, President Trump, in a social-media post, wrote, “I gave Iran a chance to make a deal” but “they just couldn’t get it done.” He said the Israeli strikes were carried out because of Tehran’s intransigence and urged the Iranians to reach a deal “before there is nothing left.”

For months, Trump had regularly signaled his desire to give diplomacy a chance to succeed before any turn to military force, and Sunday’s planned meeting in Muscat was to be another step on a high-stakes journey.

Iran had been expected to respond then to a Witkoff proposal for a framework to resolve the standoff over Tehran’s nuclear efforts. The two sides were at loggerheads—the U.S. insisted that Iran would eventually have to stop enriching uranium, which Tehran refused to do. But even amid signals that an Israeli strike was growing more likely, the expectation was that talks would continue.

On Thursday, Trump said he didn’t think an Israeli attack was imminent, “but it is something that could very well happen.” He also said Washington and Tehran were “fairly close to a pretty good agreement” but that Iran would need to make further compromises to avoid conflict.

Hours later, Israel launched hundreds of warplanes in several waves to hit targets across Iran.

“There is no question that the Witkoff mission was a major contributor to the surprise,” said Dennis Ross, who served as a senior official on Middle East issues during Democratic and Republican administrations. “The Iranians would have assumed that Israel would not attack while the talks were under way and a meeting was about to take place.
. . .”

[ken_sylvania]

According to today's Wall Street Journal, the restarted US-Iran nuclear negotiations were a ruse on the part of the US to provide cover for this Israeli attack. So I think we can very safely assume no one will be negotiating with the US (or Trump) after this. Most certainly not Iran. Here is a gift-link to the whole article: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/i ... _permalink

In Twist, U.S. Diplomacy Served as Cover for Israeli Surprise Attack
Talks seen as a way to keep the peace gave Israel the opportunity to land heavy military blows

U.S. negotiations with Iran aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear program were widely seen as an important way to preserve regional peace. They ended up being the perfect cover for a surprise Israeli attack.

With a sixth round of talks between Trump administration envoy Steve Witkoff and his Iranian counterparts set for Sunday in Oman, Israeli and U.S. officials warned of military action if Iran didn’t agree to end its production of fissile material that can be used in nuclear weapons.

Instead, Israel hit first, achieving tactical surprise through a devastating series of blows that killed three top Iranian generals and key nuclear scientists and hit sites linked to the country’s nuclear programs.

On Friday morning, President Trump, in a social-media post, wrote, “I gave Iran a chance to make a deal” but “they just couldn’t get it done.” He said the Israeli strikes were carried out because of Tehran’s intransigence and urged the Iranians to reach a deal “before there is nothing left.”

For months, Trump had regularly signaled his desire to give diplomacy a chance to succeed before any turn to military force, and Sunday’s planned meeting in Muscat was to be another step on a high-stakes journey.

Iran had been expected to respond then to a Witkoff proposal for a framework to resolve the standoff over Tehran’s nuclear efforts. The two sides were at loggerheads—the U.S. insisted that Iran would eventually have to stop enriching uranium, which Tehran refused to do. But even amid signals that an Israeli strike was growing more likely, the expectation was that talks would continue.

On Thursday, Trump said he didn’t think an Israeli attack was imminent, “but it is something that could very well happen.” He also said Washington and Tehran were “fairly close to a pretty good agreement” but that Iran would need to make further compromises to avoid conflict.

Hours later, Israel launched hundreds of warplanes in several waves to hit targets across Iran.

“There is no question that the Witkoff mission was a major contributor to the surprise,” said Dennis Ross, who served as a senior official on Middle East issues during Democratic and Republican administrations. “The Iranians would have assumed that Israel would not attack while the talks were under way and a meeting was about to take place.
. . .”

The article doesn't say what you claim it says... but carry on. Believe whatever you want. I don't care.