Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Ken]

What next? Do you want the ceasefire to contain terms about Western occupied China (Taipei and other places)?

Huh? The question about Crimea and Donbass is one of the central issues in this conflict. Any peace process that doesn't address this is DOA.

Well, if you expect Ukraine to somehow annex Crimea then you’d better be open to allowing China to reunify with its island of Taiwan.

Your analogy would hold more weight if it was still Japan occupying Taiwan through military conquest.

[Szdfan]

Huh? The question about Crimea and Donbass is one of the central issues in this conflict. Any peace process that doesn't address this is DOA.

Well, if you expect Ukraine to somehow annex Crimea then you’d better be open to allowing China to reunify with its island of Taiwan.

Your analogy would hold more weight if it was still Japan occupying Taiwan through military conquest.

Yes. Not the same situation and completely irrelevant to the Russo-Ukrainian War.

[Ken]

Well, if you expect Ukraine to somehow annex Crimea then you’d better be open to allowing China to reunify with its island of Taiwan.

Your analogy would hold more weight if it was still Japan occupying Taiwan through military conquest.

Yes. Not the same situation and completely irrelevant to the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Japan actually occupied Taiwan from 1895 to 1945 so by Josh's historical analogy it is entitled to take over Taiwan again. Japan has just as much 20th century claim to Taiwan as Russia does to Crimea.

[Josh]

It’s quite analogous. Ukraine thinks Crimea belongs to them. China thinks Taiwan belongs to them.

[Szdfan]

It’s quite analogous. Ukraine thinks Crimea belongs to them. China thinks Taiwan belongs to them.

But it has nothing to do with the war in the Ukraine.

[Ken]

It’s quite analogous. Ukraine thinks Crimea belongs to them. China thinks Taiwan belongs to them.

Actually the more accurate analogy is that Russia believes that an independent Ukraine is a fiction and that the Ukrainian people are a fiction and that ALL of Ukraine belongs to it. We have writings from Putin and endless other Russian authorities to that effect. And that Crimea was just Russia’s first bite in its long-term attempt to eliminate and absorb all of Ukraine. A project that they are willing to commit the ultimate war crime by engaging in an illegal war of conquest and facilitate endless atrocities and war crimes towards that end. Quite similar in fact to German conquest of Eastern Europe during WW2.

What Russia is actually going to accomplish by its aggression is signal to every other country that lies in the shadow of a larger militaristic neighbor, the nuclear weapons are an absolute necessity to maintain one’s independence. At this very moment it is almost certainly the case that Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Poland, the Baltic States, Ukraine itself, and others are secretly exploring the option of creating their own nuclear arsenal.

The question we should actually be asking is whether a world with limitless nuclear proliferation is a safer world than the one we lived in prior to 2014. Because that is the world we will actually be living in if Russia wins this war.

I suspect the reason that China has been very circumspect in its support for Russia is because they do NOT want to see a nuclear armed Taiwan. Taiwan has multiple nuclear power plants and advanced missile technology and certainly has the scientific know-how to develop nuclear weapons in short order. If North Korea and Pakistan can do it then the Taiwanese can do it in their sleep. Taiwan started to dial back its nuclear power program in the wake of the Fukushima accident. But they have apparently reversed or halted that recently. Probably the only thing stopping them from building their own weapons is the United States. But if they feel that the United States nuclear umbrella is insufficient to deter a Chinese invasion they could easily start their own secret nuclear program if they have not done so already. Same for Korea and Japan and all the other countries bordering Russia in Eastern Europe. And for that matter the central Asian republics that are sitting between Russia and China.

[Ken]

Speaking of countries getting frisky for territory. It seems that China is starting to turn its eyes towards Siberian lands that it formerly lost to Russia. Where does it end?

[Szdfan]

The island of Sahkalin was more recently until World War II, a part of Japan. The island is only 40km from Japan's northern island of Hokkaido. It's possible to see Sahkalin from the northern Japanese city Wakkanai on a clear day.

Until recently, the railroad on Sahkalin had the same gauge as Japanese railroads (1067mm), but has been converted to Russian broad gauge in the past few years.

[Szdfan]

Even when Russia did settle before with (Poland?) they still came out better off in terms of land. It’s foolish to think Russia is going to give up any fortified held territory without major loss of life which isn’t going to happen unless western powers send manpower.

From my reading, a recent briefing at the Pentagon noted that it's unlikely that Ukraine will recapture the Crimea in the near future, which angered the Ukrainians, because they are determined to recapture it.

[Josh]

Even when Russia did settle before with (Poland?) they still came out better off in terms of land. It’s foolish to think Russia is going to give up any fortified held territory without major loss of life which isn’t going to happen unless western powers send manpower.

From my reading, a recent briefing at the Pentagon noted that it's unlikely that Ukraine will recapture the Crimea in the near future, which angered the Ukrainians, because they are determined to recapture it.

Fighting for the last man standing (and demanding literal billions of dollars from us) to recapture Crimea seems wrong to me. Sorry, but I don’t think it’s worth hundreds of thousands of dead bodies just to regain “territorial integrity” that existed from… 1990 through 2014?