Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[barnhart]

Good words Max.

[temporal1]

I was 7 years old when the Luftwaffe began the bombing of our towns and cities. I watched as my friends’ lifeless bodies were extracted from the rubble: they were only children between the ages of 3 and 8. Some of my friends lost their limbs. Children lost their parents. All of us lost someone in that terrible and terrifying Blitz.

I am forever thankful to those people, especially the Americans who came to our aid with foods, medicines, and assistance to relocate to safety. Even the tiniest moments that offered words of comfort and a cracker helped us cope with the massive inhumanity we were experiencing from a mad man who wanted to control Europe and the world.

The Ukrainians are being terrorised and obliterated: this is not a conjecture but the conclusion of an international consensus. Ukrainian children are dying from the bombing of their schools and cities. Nearly one million have fled to Poland and other countries. The basics of life are going spare in the bomb shelters: food, water, hygiene, medical equipment and medicines. Some bomb shelters have set up neonatal units as the women give birth, many prematurely.

Ways in which each and every one of you can help these poor people
You all belong to fellowships that have the capability to help in disasters. Help them help others.
• If you are multi-lingual be a translator for refugees and those who assist them.
• If you are in a group that helps in disasters, use your particular skill sets and resources in whatever capacity that will help with food, water, hygiene, and medicines to the refugee centers and the bomb shelters.
• Give material assistance, whatever you can offer, to those groups assisting the victims.
• Everyone can pray. Offer your prayers for these poor people in addition to your material assistance.

Each and every one of you has skills and resources to help. Remember that ALL OF US will have to make an accounting of ourselves to Jesus when He asks: I was hungry and did you feed Me? I was terrified and did you comfort Me?

It is easy to sit comfortably behind a keyboard and pontificate about politics and world events. It is much harder to get into the fray of the chaos and help others. I know; I have been there and lived through the terror.

Please heed this exhortation to get off your keyboards and help these people as much as you can, in whatever way you can. Remember: Jesus praised the widow's mite as that was all she had. It is not about supporting a government or a political cause. It is about rescuing innocent lives. Children do not care about debates or arguments when they are being bombed.

i agree with all of this, with a bit more.

i believe discussions (esp on this forum of mostly Christians, however diverse) serves a purpose of grieving, as well as learning.
there are many ways to articulate grief and compassion, often our hands are tied, helplessness is is a painful reality, prayer is an immediate coping strategy. there are many ways of praying.

you’ve been away from MN for awhile.
in the past, and now, you enjoy your keyboard as much or more than others, correct? it’s a tool, a form of expression, an outlet for grief. a place to share joy. encouragement for prayer.

in this thread, information has been shared about how to contribute to aid those suffering in Ukraine.
as you say, and i agree, the American people (as well as government) are generous to those in need. it’s not overlooked.
it’s not unusual for gov to work with churches in aid, not often mentioned, the Catholic Church is highly involved in gov-church aid. (i’m sure you know well.) (there are mixed feelings about this, another topic.)

bottom line, tho.
maybe i’m mistaken, but i don’t think so.
i think these discussions serve many purposes, not the least of which are prayers and grieving. even when that might not be the immediate surface appearance.

God knows what we long for. This reveals our deepest, often unspoken, prayers. No way to hide from God.

Jesus knows our hearts. May He find them of godly intent. Even on keyboards.

[Dan Z]

I do think the US and the EU might have blown it in terms of their negotiations with Putin - and I wonder if this war could have been prevented at the negotiating table.

As others have pointed out, Putin saw the encroachment of NATO as an existential threat. If the West would have concretely agreed that Ukraine not be offered entry into NATO (perhaps for a fixed time - say 50 years) perhaps Putin would have backed down, lives would have been saved, and the destruction of a country would have been averted.

[barnhart]

I agree Dan, at the same time there is enough blame to go around. It's not President Obama's fault (or Bush or Clinton or Trump) when Russia invades.

[Sudsy]

What doesn't make sense to me (which are many things ) is that Putin doesn't want NATO on Russia's border but after taking over the Ukraine, the UN will still be on his border as Poland and other already NATO countries. He cannot keep moving west and avoid being on a NATO border, right ?

Perhaps someone can explain this to me ?

[Soloist]

I do think the US and the EU might have blown it in terms of their negotiations with Putin - and I wonder if this war could have been prevented at the negotiating table.

As others have pointed out, Putin saw the encroachment of NATO as an existential threat. If the West would have concretely agreed that Ukraine not be offered entry into NATO (perhaps for a fixed time - say 50 years) perhaps Putin would have backed down, lives would have been saved, and the destruction of a country would have been averted.

Maybe... the speech I watched of Putin suggested he considered any agreement with the US (he sees NATO as an arm of the US) to be worthless and basically states the US keeps breaking its word or pulls out of treaties whenever it suits us. Specifically he named the open sky treaty and the AMB treaty. He also made a jab over how we have missiles within 12 minutes of Moscow, 7 in Ukraine, 5 if they use hypersonic. I just remember how we reacted to the Cuban missile crisis... He also said what would the USA do if we had missiles in Canada? or Mexico? Of course he failed to mention the subs he has off our coast.

Sudsy, Putin believes the US made an agreement to not expand NATO eastward. He pointed to 5 expansion waves of NATO moving east as justification for his invasion. He wants a buffer between NATO and himself, I don't know if he wants to control Ukraine directly or just simply install a puppet, my guess would be on the later. I think Wikipedia has a reasonable historical account, but I haven't dug very far into it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO

[Ken]

I do think the US and the EU might have blown it in terms of their negotiations with Putin - and I wonder if this war could have been prevented at the negotiating table.

As others have pointed out, Putin saw the encroachment of NATO as an existential threat. If the West would have concretely agreed that Ukraine not be offered entry into NATO (perhaps for a fixed time - say 50 years) perhaps Putin would have backed down, lives would have been saved, and the destruction of a country would have been averted.

Maybe... the speech I watched of Putin suggested he considered any agreement with the US (he sees NATO as an arm of the US) to be worthless and basically states the US keeps breaking its word or pulls out of treaties whenever it suits us. Specifically he named the open sky treaty and the AMB treaty. He also made a jab over how we have missiles within 12 minutes of Moscow, 7 in Ukraine, 5 if they use hypersonic. I just remember how we reacted to the Cuban missile crisis... He also said what would the USA do if we had missiles in Canada? or Mexico? Of course he failed to mention the subs he has off our coast.

Sudsy, Putin believes the US made an agreement to not expand NATO eastward. He pointed to 5 expansion waves of NATO moving east as justification for his invasion. He wants a buffer between NATO and himself, I don't know if he wants to control Ukraine directly or just simply install a puppet, my guess would be on the later. I think Wikipedia has a reasonable historical account, but I haven't dug very far into it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO

Are those the issues cited by Russia?

We can go through them one by one.

The Open Skies treaty was abandoned by the Trump Administration. The reasons cited were that Russia was in continual violation by not allowing US flights over Georgia and other parts of Russia. Was that a mistake? Probably. But it was also something of an obsolete cold war relic in the era of hyper-detailed satellite imagery. We no longer need to send planes over Russia to see what they are up to.

The ABM treaty was abandoned by George W Bush in 2001, early in the Bush Administration when they wanted to accelerate development of "star wars" missile defense. Also probably a mistake as those efforts have failed and 20 years later we have no missile defense.

The US has no missiles in Ukraine so I don't know what he is talking about there with missiles in Ukraine being 7 minutes from Moscow. Of course the reason why there are no nuclear missiles in Ukraine is that Ukraine gave them up thirty years ago. At that time Ukraine was the 3rd largest nuclear power. The US, Ukraine, UK, and Russia signed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances which guaranteed Ukraine sovereignty and respect for existing borders in exchange for de-nuclearization, which Russia has repeatedly violated not just with this war, but going back to the seizure of Crimea and before. Ukrainians voted absolutely overwhelmingly for independence in 1991. Something like over 80% of the population voted and the vote was over 90% in favor of independence. Majorities favored it in every part of the country including Crimea and the Donbas. They willingly and openly chose their path. It is Russia that has chosen to violate their sovereignty.

As for NATO? There was no agreement with Russia not to expand NATO. The Russian and Soviet leaders at the time have admitted as much. That is revisionist history or outright falsehood on his part. If there was an agreement he would be able to point to it, which he can't. And, in any event this war on the part of Russia is doing more to make the case for NATO than any previous event in the past 50 years. Sweden and Finland are now contemplating joining NATO and are already cooperating as if they were full members. And for the first time ever, majorities in both countries favor joining NATO. And now with Russia's action, countries like Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and others are asking to join the EU which is probably a more significant step than NATO anyway.

In any event, Putin is right about Russia being a declining power. When I was young during the cold war in the late 1970s the USSR and Warsaw Pact commanded a vast stretch of the globe, covered a population of over 350 million, represented a major portion of the world economy, and had professional standing armies in the millions. Now Russia is basically standing alone with a population of about 140 million and an anemic corrupt kleptocratic economy that is smaller than that of Texas or Canada. And their poor performance in Ukraine to date is demonstrating to the world that Russian military might may not be what they thought. They are closer to Mexico in terms of population and GDP than they are to the US. Countries in Central Europe like Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the Baltic States can look at the political and economic examples of both the west and Russia and decide for themselves as free peoples which direction they want to go. It is pretty much a no-brainer.

This crisis is only going to further accelerate the decline of Russia. It is likely to be one of the biggest "own-goals" in the history of international affairs. Far exceeding the brutal stupidity of the Bush Administration's decision to go to war in Iraq. But the biggest winner isn't likely to be NATO or western Europe. It will likely be China which will probably take advantage of Russian weakness to greatly expand its influence in all the border republics in Central Asia and expand its control over Russian oil, gas, mineral, and timber wealth in Siberia.

[Szdfan]

I do think the US and the EU might have blown it in terms of their negotiations with Putin - and I wonder if this war could have been prevented at the negotiating table.

As others have pointed out, Putin saw the encroachment of NATO as an existential threat. If the West would have concretely agreed that Ukraine not be offered entry into NATO (perhaps for a fixed time - say 50 years) perhaps Putin would have backed down, lives would have been saved, and the destruction of a country would have been averted.

While I think NATO expansion is a critical part of Russia's grievances with the West, I don't think that's all of it. I think any movement towards the West by Ukraine was seen as a threat by Russia, such as the 2014 Maidan protests, which prompted Russia's annexation of the Crimea.

At what point does Ukraine get to decide for itself its own destiny? Unfortunately, Russia is making a great argument for why NATO is necessary and should be expanded into Eastern Europe.

Putin views the collapse of the Soviet Union as one of the greatest tragedies of history. I'm not sure that promising not to include Ukraine as a part of NATO would have been enough.

[Ken]

I do think the US and the EU might have blown it in terms of their negotiations with Putin - and I wonder if this war could have been prevented at the negotiating table.

As others have pointed out, Putin saw the encroachment of NATO as an existential threat. If the West would have concretely agreed that Ukraine not be offered entry into NATO (perhaps for a fixed time - say 50 years) perhaps Putin would have backed down, lives would have been saved, and the destruction of a country would have been averted.

While I think NATO expansion is a critical part of Russia's grievances with the West, I don't think that's all of it. I think any movement towards the West by Ukraine was seen as a threat by Russia, such as the 2014 Maidan protests, which prompted Russia's annexation of the Crimea.

At what point does Ukraine get to decide for itself its own destiny? Unfortunately, Russia is making a great argument for why NATO is necessary and should be expanded into Eastern Europe.

Putin views the collapse of the Soviet Union as one of the greatest tragedies of history. I'm not sure that promising not to include Ukraine as a part of NATO would have been enough.

He wants to rebuild the 19th Century Russian Empire or its successor, the USSR which is frankly impossible. And no more possible than say Spain rebuilding its Latin American empire. Or the British rebuilding their empire. We no longer live in an imperial age. It isn't just Ukraine, everywhere he has attempted to expand Russian influence it has resulted in brutal military clashes with the local populations. In Georgia, in Chechnya, in Ukraine, in Armenia, and a dozen other places along the fringes of Russia. People simply don't want to live under the Russian yoke. And the places where Russia still has allies like Belorussia and Kazakhstan are kept that way by dictatorial puppet regimes that are propped up with heavy support from Russia. Ukraine was also like that prior to 2014 under the corrupt Viktor Yanukovych who Russia apparently wants to reinstall in Ukraine. But I expect that ship has sailed and the chances that a pro-Russian Putin crony will ever win election in Ukraine are zero to nil.

[nett]

As for NATO? There was no agreement with Russia not to expand NATO. The Russian and Soviet leaders at the time have admitted as much. That is revisionist history or outright falsehood on his part. If there was an agreement he would be able to point to it, which he can't. And, in any event this war on the part of Russia is doing more to make the case for NATO than any previous event in the past 50 years. Sweden and Finland are now contemplating joining NATO and are already cooperating as if they were full members. And for the first time ever, majorities in both countries favor joining NATO. And now with Russia's action, countries like Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and others are asking to join the EU which is probably a more significant step than NATO anyway.

umm what about James Baker's assurance of “not one inch eastward”?

In any event, Putin is right about Russia being a declining power. When I was young during the cold war in the late 1970s the USSR and Warsaw Pact commanded a vast stretch of the globe, covered a population of over 350 million, represented a major portion of the world economy, and had professional standing armies in the millions. Now Russia is basically standing alone with a population of about 140 million and an anemic corrupt kleptocratic economy that is smaller than that of Texas or Canada. And their poor performance in Ukraine to date is demonstrating to the world that Russian military might may not be what they thought. They are closer to Mexico in terms of population and GDP than they are to the US. Countries in Central Europe like Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the Baltic States can look at the political and economic examples of both the west and Russia and decide for themselves as free peoples which direction they want to go. It is pretty much a no-brainer.

This crisis is only going to further accelerate the decline of Russia. It is likely to be one of the biggest "own-goals" in the history of international affairs. Far exceeding the brutal stupidity of the Bush Administration's decision to go to war in Iraq. But the biggest winner isn't likely to be NATO or western Europe. It will likely be China which will probably take advantage of Russian weakness to greatly expand its influence in all the border republics in Central Asia and expand its control over Russian oil, gas, mineral, and timber wealth in Siberia.

You have odd opinions about Russia. The way I can rationalize you thinking Russia is not a major player in the global economy, if that you don't think wheat, fertilizer or oil are important. Russia also has vertical supply chains for most of their military production, which is not something any other superpower can currently claim.

Seems you've been huffing a bit much hopium.