Coronavirus Outbreak

[nett]

I guess I can't tell the end date of the graphs shown, but from what it looks like, I'm guessing they are about a month out of date. In Ontario the big turn didn't begin until about the middle of the first week of December.
Official stats for today showed new cases 73.5% fully vaccinated and 19.7% unvaccinated. The differential based on rates was down to 1.4.

I believe in the US, data is being reported more less honestly than in CA.

Anecdotally most of the vaccinated people I know have now gotten COVID, some of them pretty serious.

[Ken]

I'm naturally immune, which is empirically more powerful than any current vaccine. I'm not worried about my own immunity. I took the risk to myself (solely) to be naturally infected, which means I'm less likely to get sick now or to spread the virus than if I'd chosen to be vaccinated.

I want to see the big picture Ken. Show me the pandemic ending, and how the vaccines are enabling that.

Big picture? I honestly have no idea. Back in March 2020 I would have had no guess we'd still be here nearly 2 years later.

My best guess is that we never eradicate Covid like we did with smallpox and basically did with polio. I think best scenario we turn from pandemic mode to endemic mode where we eventually get away from these uncontrolled waves that crash through and overwhelm health care systems and get to a point where the virus is more or less background noise. We might have predictable seasonal waves like we do with other endemic pests like say mosquitos which come and go with the season and we just live with. Or even flu which comes and goes in predictable cycles. Right now it is the out-of-control unpredictable nature of Covid that makes it so aggravating.

So how do we get from pandemic mode to endemic mode? By building up enough population immunity as well as doing whatever additional measures are appropriate and effective. Perhaps things like improved HVAC filtration and disinfection systems in public buildings, improved intervention and treatment regimes, and anything else that works. Public vaccination and booster campaigns will play a part in that, a large part, but not the only part.

[nett]

I'm naturally immune, which is empirically more powerful than any current vaccine. I'm not worried about my own immunity. I took the risk to myself (solely) to be naturally infected, which means I'm less likely to get sick now or to spread the virus than if I'd chosen to be vaccinated.

I want to see the big picture Ken. Show me the pandemic ending, and how the vaccines are enabling that.

Big picture? I honestly have no idea. Back in March 2020 I would have had no guess we'd still be here nearly 2 years later.

My best guess is that we never eradicate Covid like we did with smallpox and basically did with polio. I think best scenario we turn from pandemic mode to endemic mode where we eventually get away from these uncontrolled waves that crash through and overwhelm health care systems and get to a point where the virus is more or less background noise. We might have predictable seasonal waves like we do with other endemic pests like say mosquitos which come and go with the season and we just live with. Or even flu which comes and goes in predictable cycles. Right now it is the out-of-control unpredictable nature of Covid that makes it so aggravating.

At this point, given the out-of-control unpredictability, wouldn't it make sense to start listening to people who predicted this exact thing?

So how do we get from pandemic mode to endemic mode? By building up enough population immunity as well as doing whatever additional measures are appropriate and effective. Perhaps things like improved HVAC filtration and disinfection systems in public buildings, improved intervention and treatment regimes, and anything else that works. Public vaccination and booster campaigns will play a part in that, a large part, but not the only part.

I do think COVID exposed a lot weaknesses of modern culture. We were basically unable to handle a basic respiratory virus without massive collateral impact, especially to minorities.

[Ken]

I'm naturally immune, which is empirically more powerful than any current vaccine. I'm not worried about my own immunity. I took the risk to myself (solely) to be naturally infected, which means I'm less likely to get sick now or to spread the virus than if I'd chosen to be vaccinated.

I want to see the big picture Ken. Show me the pandemic ending, and how the vaccines are enabling that.

Big picture? I honestly have no idea. Back in March 2020 I would have had no guess we'd still be here nearly 2 years later.

My best guess is that we never eradicate Covid like we did with smallpox and basically did with polio. I think best scenario we turn from pandemic mode to endemic mode where we eventually get away from these uncontrolled waves that crash through and overwhelm health care systems and get to a point where the virus is more or less background noise. We might have predictable seasonal waves like we do with other endemic pests like say mosquitos which come and go with the season and we just live with. Or even flu which comes and goes in predictable cycles. Right now it is the out-of-control unpredictable nature of Covid that makes it so aggravating.

At this point, given the out-of-control unpredictability, wouldn't it make sense to start listening to people who predicted this exact thing?

So how do we get from pandemic mode to endemic mode? By building up enough population immunity as well as doing whatever additional measures are appropriate and effective. Perhaps things like improved HVAC filtration and disinfection systems in public buildings, improved intervention and treatment regimes, and anything else that works. Public vaccination and booster campaigns will play a part in that, a large part, but not the only part.

I do think COVID exposed a lot weaknesses of modern culture. We were basically unable to handle a basic respiratory virus without massive collateral impact, especially to minorities.

Listen to someone who predicted this would be a tough mess? Like say Fauci?

But yes, I agree. This has been a stress test on our society in countless ways and we have not fared well.

[Valerie]

No, you are doing the math wrong. 2.5 out of 100,000 is the number who died that week out of the entire population, not the number that died out of the unvaccinated population that was sick. You would need to divide 2.5 deaths per 100,000 by the total number of unvaccinated who got sick that same week (or the prior weeks) to get the correct IFR

Correction acknowledged. What about the rest though.

I posted links to all the raw data in response to soloist.

Bottom line? Every single bit of data I have seen points to the same conclusion: Vaccines do not provide 100% protection against infection, hospitalization, and death. No one ever said they did or assumed they would, ever. But what they do is substantially reduce your chance of getting infected, your chance of getting hospitalized, and your chance of dying. Every data set points to that conclusion. At present in this country the numbers look like this for the 26 states that provide enough information to generate comparative rates:



Personally I'll take that as good enough reason to get the jab and move on with my life. Since I had open heart surgery last January and have an artificial heart valve I need to go to my local clinic every few weeks and get blood drawn to check my INR since I am on blood thinners. Getting the Covid vax when I'm there anyway getting blood drawn is the most trivial thing.

With the Omicron variant it looks like the ground is shifting once again as the new variant is more infectious and better at evading immunity. But it also looks like being fully vaccinated and having gotten a booster still provides much better protection than not being vaccinated. So I'm not particularly worried about it. I've done what I can do. And if a new booster comes out in 2022 that is targeted at omicron I'll go ahead and get it. It is a trivial hassle.

In my own immediate family circle of 12 people that spreads across 2 continents, everyone has been completely vaccinated and boosted as appropriate. And not one of us has caught Covid in the past 2 years. Even though half of us are in relatively high risk jobs. So what we are doing seems to be working.

I know myriad of people who have not caught covid, and we're not vaccinated, and work with a public. What kind of conclusion can you draw about that?

[Valerie]

I'm naturally immune, which is empirically more powerful than any current vaccine. I'm not worried about my own immunity. I took the risk to myself (solely) to be naturally infected, which means I'm less likely to get sick now or to spread the virus than if I'd chosen to be vaccinated.

I want to see the big picture Ken. Show me the pandemic ending, and how the vaccines are enabling that.

Big picture? I honestly have no idea. Back in March 2020 I would have had no guess we'd still be here nearly 2 years later.

My best guess is that we never eradicate Covid like we did with smallpox and basically did with polio. I think best scenario we turn from pandemic mode to endemic mode where we eventually get away from these uncontrolled waves that crash through and overwhelm health care systems and get to a point where the virus is more or less background noise. We might have predictable seasonal waves like we do with other endemic pests like say mosquitos which come and go with the season and we just live with. Or even flu which comes and goes in predictable cycles. Right now it is the out-of-control unpredictable nature of Covid that makes it so aggravating.

At this point, given the out-of-control unpredictability, wouldn't it make sense to start listening to people who predicted this exact thing?

So how do we get from pandemic mode to endemic mode? By building up enough population immunity as well as doing whatever additional measures are appropriate and effective. Perhaps things like improved HVAC filtration and disinfection systems in public buildings, improved intervention and treatment regimes, and anything else that works. Public vaccination and booster campaigns will play a part in that, a large part, but not the only part.

I do think COVID exposed a lot weaknesses of modern culture. We were basically unable to handle a basic respiratory virus without massive collateral impact, especially to minorities.

I agree with you for the most part. We are also of the group that did not want to be vaccinated and still are not. However to say this is a basic respiratory virus I think is an understatement. Just using myself and my husband as an example, I have never been sick for 2 weeks in my entire life. And my husband was never hospitalized and as sick as he was, by a cold or a flu or a respiratory attack from allergies- I believe the Delta was a much meaner virus, not a basic respiratory virus. It is true that some people will get a mild case there are so many things each individual situation different- example, my husband didn't catch it at all when he was with me for 2 weeks while I had it. Then later he got a bad case and he could have been one of the death statistics. There are so many variables

The travesty is censoring and denying treatments and education that will help people avoid it naturally, or educate people and provide them with what will keep them from being hospitalized. Too many successful doctors have been censored

[Ken]

I know myriad of people who have not caught covid, and we're not vaccinated, and work with a public. What kind of conclusion can you draw about that?

That you've been lucky or blessed.

[nett]

Ken, do you think it makes sense to vaccinate 16-17 y/o children?

The FDA did not convene a board of experts, and made the decision unilaterally it would appear.

The FDA's own documentation shows that the risk of serious heart issues is equal to or greater than the risk of severe COVID

[Ken]

Ken, do you think it makes sense to vaccinate 16-17 y/o children?

The FDA did not convene a board of experts, and made the decision unilaterally it would appear.

The FDA's own documentation shows that the risk of serious heart issues is equal to or greater than the risk of severe COVID

Yes, and my 15 year old daughter is vaccinated.

Vaccination campaigns serve two purposes: (1) to protect the individual, and (2) to curtail the spread of the disease to others. I will grant you that the risk of COVID hospitalization and death among teenagers is very low. Not zero, but very low. Although perhaps less low with omicron. Also the risk of side effects is very low. the rare instances of myocarditis you are referencing usually present with chest pain and shortness of breath but then quickly go away. So it isn't like they are dying of this side effect. Teenagers do not live in a vacuum. They go to school where there are often elderly teachers as well as fellow students who may be immunocompromised or otherwise vulnerable. They live in families, often with elderly who may be vulnerable and immunocompromised. And if they do not, their fellow classmates do. So there is public health benefit to vaccinating all teenagers even if the disease had zero effect on teenagers. Simply to eliminate them as a disease vector. It is about pushing community spread of Covid down below a reproductive rate of 1.0 and vaccinating teenagers aids in that effort.

I'm not privy to the inner workings of the FDA and CDC when it comes to approvals. Both the FDA and CDC are full of in-house experts. I don't know anything about the circumstances regarding their decision not to convene outside advisory bodies to explore expanding vaccines to teenagers. One person's "cutting red tape" is another person's "unilateral decision making. We praised it when it was the Trump Administration cutting red tape with "operation warp speed" and the rapid approval of Hydroxychloroquine. Now we want to load back all the red tape I guess and slow things back down? It does appear that the Biden Administration and the FDA have been more aggressive at pushing boosters than the FDA advisory body was. With the advent of the omicron variant it looks like the Biden Administration was correct and the advisory body was wrong. But then 6 weeks ago no one had heard of omicron and now it is something like 70% of infections in the US.

[nett]

Ken, do you think it makes sense to vaccinate 16-17 y/o children?

The FDA did not convene a board of experts, and made the decision unilaterally it would appear.

The FDA's own documentation shows that the risk of serious heart issues is equal to or greater than the risk of severe COVID

Yes, and my 15 year old daughter is vaccinated.

Vaccination campaigns serve two purposes: (1) to protect the individual, and (2) to curtail the spread of the disease to others. I will grant you that the risk of COVID hospitalization and death among teenagers is very low. Not zero, but very low. Although perhaps less low with omicron. Also the risk of side effects is very low. the rare instances of myocarditis you are referencing usually present with chest pain and shortness of breath but then quickly go away.

The table I provided shows hospitalizations due to myocarditis that were serious enough for the provider to report. These instances are in fact it would be very serious, and probably have long term implications, like not being to continue in athletics. the totals for general myocarditis would be much higher, but were not reported.

So it isn't like they are dying of this side effect. Teenagers do not live in a vacuum.

You sure about that?

They go to school where there are often elderly teachers as well as fellow students who may be immunocompromised or otherwise vulnerable. They live in families, often with elderly who may be vulnerable and immunocompromised. And if they do not, their fellow classmates do. So there is public health benefit to vaccinating all teenagers even if the disease had zero effect on teenagers. Simply to eliminate them as a disease vector. It is about pushing community spread of Covid down below a reproductive rate of 1.0 and vaccinating teenagers aids in that effort.

You realize you just made a case against vaccination. Your justifications for vaccination would be much better served by teenagers getting natural infections, quarantining once they show symptoms, and then recovering with much stronger, longer lasting immunity, and significantly less chance of spread, compared to vaccination.

So, they're not really at risk personally from COVID infections, the vaccine also doesn't prevent them from spreading COVID at all, and the vaccine does have a little bit more risk than natural infection. I'm not seeing your rationale for vaccinating your 15 y/o at all.

I'm not privy to the inner workings of the FDA and CDC when it comes to approvals. Both the FDA and CDC are full of in-house experts. I don't know anything about the circumstances regarding their decision not to convene outside advisory bodies to explore expanding vaccines to teenagers. One person's "cutting red tape" is another person's "unilateral decision making. We praised it when it was the Trump Administration cutting red tape with "operation warp speed" and the rapid approval of Hydroxychloroquine. Now we want to load back all the red tape I guess and slow things back down? It does appear that the Biden Administration and the FDA have been more aggressive at pushing boosters than the FDA advisory body was. With the advent of the omicron variant it looks like the Biden Administration was correct and the advisory body was wrong. But then 6 weeks ago no one had heard of omicron and now it is something like 70% of infections in the US.

Now you've lost me.

No, they are not full of in-house experts. They are full of bureaucrats. That's why they assemble key advisory panels to vote on these decisions.