Coronavirus Outbreak

[nett]

OK, let's talk about the graph you just posted. This graph shows that the unvaccinated are dying at a rate that is 8.2-times higher than the vaccinated. The actual numbers are 0.25 deaths per 100,000 for vaccinated, and 2.05 per 100,000 for the unvaccinated on 12/4 which the most recent data point on the graph. (2.05 / 0.25 = 8.2 times higher) You have to click over to the original source and hover over the data points on the graph to see the underlying data as it is a dynamic graph that you can't fully capture with a screen shot.

And because deaths follow hospitalizations by about 2 weeks the recent surge in hospitalizations is also likely to produce a related surge in deaths in about 2 weeks. Should we check back in 2 weeks to find out?

2.05 / 100,000? That's an IFR of .002%. Even if you take the pfizer safety study at their word, that's on par with serious adverse effects like myocarditis. Not a great case for vaccination there.

And as usual, this analysis is rife with deep flaws. What percentage of the unvaccinated deaths were people who were unvaccinated because they had such serious underlying health conditions that they could not be? What's the age breakdown?

At a macro level, are vaccines working NYC? Are they helping to end the pandemic? You and boot have a real soft-spot for posting comparative graphs that ignore the big picture. Like I said, if there were 1 unvaccinated person left in NYC, and they were experiencing an outbreak, if that one person contracted COVID, the vaccines would look amazing, despite being obviously failing to stop outbreaks, hospitalizations and deaths. Like I keep saing, on a national level, vaccination is not correlated with any of those outcomes (the only ones that matter).

[Soloist]

Okay so factual numbers here...

what is the total case load for say the last 7 days?

They show total cases to date...
They show ratios
They show vaccinated numbers versus unvaccinated
they show 7 day average per 100,000 for each group

They do not show number of cases for past 7 days or even daily number with a break out of vaccinated versus unvaccinated. How can you check their data without knowing all of the variables?

[Ken]

2.05 / 100,000? That's an IFR of .002%. Even if you take the pfizer safety study at their word, that's on par with serious adverse effects like myocarditis. Not a great case for vaccination there.

No, you are doing the math wrong. 2.5 out of 100,000 is the number who died that week out of the entire population, not the number that died out of the unvaccinated population that was sick. You would need to divide 2.5 deaths per 100,000 by the total number of unvaccinated who got sick that same week (or the prior weeks) to get the correct IFR

[nett]

2.05 / 100,000? That's an IFR of .002%. Even if you take the pfizer safety study at their word, that's on par with serious adverse effects like myocarditis. Not a great case for vaccination there.

No, you are doing the math wrong. 2.5 out of 100,000 is the number who died that week out of the entire population, not the number that died out of the unvaccinated population that was sick. You would need to divide 2.5 deaths per 100,000 by the total number of unvaccinated who got sick that same week (or the prior weeks) to get the correct IFR

Correction acknowledged. What about the rest though.

[Ken]

Okay so factual numbers here...

what is the total case load for say the last 7 days?

They show total cases to date...
They show ratios
They show vaccinated numbers versus unvaccinated
they show 7 day average per 100,000 for each group

They do not show number of cases for past 7 days or even daily number with a break out of vaccinated versus unvaccinated. How can you check their data without knowing all of the variables?

If you follow the links you can find the raw data. For example, here are the weekly hospital counts by vaccination status

https://github.com/nychealth/coronaviru ... hrough.csv

If you scroll to the bottom for the most recent week ending 12/4 you will find the following data

VACCINATED:
5421 COVID cases for a case rate of 96 per 100,000
161 COVID hospitalizations for a hospitalization rate of 2.99 per 100,000
13 deaths for a death rate of 0.25 per 100,000

UNVACCINATED:
7124 COVID cases for a case rate of 804 per 100,000
312 COVID hospitalizations for a hospitalization rate of 40 per 100,000
18 deaths for a death rate of 2.05 per 100,000

Is that what you were looking for?

[Soloist]

Okay so factual numbers here...

what is the total case load for say the last 7 days?

They show total cases to date...
They show ratios
They show vaccinated numbers versus unvaccinated
they show 7 day average per 100,000 for each group

They do not show number of cases for past 7 days or even daily number with a break out of vaccinated versus unvaccinated. How can you check their data without knowing all of the variables?

If you follow the links you can find the raw data. For example, here are the weekly hospital counts by vaccination status

https://github.com/nychealth/coronaviru ... hrough.csv

If you scroll to the bottom for the most recent week ending 12/4 you will find the following data

VACCINATED:
5421 COVID cases for a case rate of 96 per 100,000
161 COVID hospitalizations for a hospitalization rate of 2.99 per 100,000
13 deaths for a death rate of 0.25 per 100,000

UNVACCINATED:
7124 COVID cases for a case rate of 804 per 100,000
312 COVID hospitalizations for a hospitalization rate of 40 per 100,000
18 deaths for a death rate of 2.05 per 100,000

Is that what you were looking for?

yes that was what I was looking for thanks

[Ken]

2.05 / 100,000? That's an IFR of .002%. Even if you take the pfizer safety study at their word, that's on par with serious adverse effects like myocarditis. Not a great case for vaccination there.

No, you are doing the math wrong. 2.5 out of 100,000 is the number who died that week out of the entire population, not the number that died out of the unvaccinated population that was sick. You would need to divide 2.5 deaths per 100,000 by the total number of unvaccinated who got sick that same week (or the prior weeks) to get the correct IFR

Correction acknowledged. What about the rest though.

I posted links to all the raw data in response to soloist.

Bottom line? Every single bit of data I have seen points to the same conclusion: Vaccines do not provide 100% protection against infection, hospitalization, and death. No one ever said they did or assumed they would, ever. But what they do is substantially reduce your chance of getting infected, your chance of getting hospitalized, and your chance of dying. Every data set points to that conclusion. At present in this country the numbers look like this for the 26 states that provide enough information to generate comparative rates:



Personally I'll take that as good enough reason to get the jab and move on with my life. Since I had open heart surgery last January and have an artificial heart valve I need to go to my local clinic every few weeks and get blood drawn to check my INR since I am on blood thinners. Getting the Covid vax when I'm there anyway getting blood drawn is the most trivial thing.

With the Omicron variant it looks like the ground is shifting once again as the new variant is more infectious and better at evading immunity. But it also looks like being fully vaccinated and having gotten a booster still provides much better protection than not being vaccinated. So I'm not particularly worried about it. I've done what I can do. And if a new booster comes out in 2022 that is targeted at omicron I'll go ahead and get it. It is a trivial hassle.

In my own immediate family circle of 12 people that spreads across 2 continents, everyone has been completely vaccinated and boosted as appropriate. And not one of us has caught Covid in the past 2 years. Even though half of us are in relatively high risk jobs. So what we are doing seems to be working.

[Soloist]

I feel confident that the graph is an accurate reflection of the data. As for analyzing it further for vaccine usefulness, I think its a bit above my skill or desire to spend the effort to dig that far into the math. I still hold my same stance on the vaccines due to the fetal cell connection.

[nett]

No, you are doing the math wrong. 2.5 out of 100,000 is the number who died that week out of the entire population, not the number that died out of the unvaccinated population that was sick. You would need to divide 2.5 deaths per 100,000 by the total number of unvaccinated who got sick that same week (or the prior weeks) to get the correct IFR

Correction acknowledged. What about the rest though.

I posted links to all the raw data in response to soloist.

Bottom line? Every single bit of data I have seen points to the same conclusion: Vaccines do not provide 100% protection against infection, hospitalization, and death. No one ever said they did or assumed they would, ever. But what they do is substantially reduce your chance of getting infected, your chance of getting hospitalized, and your chance of dying. Every data set points to that conclusion. At present in this country the numbers look like this for the 26 states that provide enough information to generate comparative rates:



Personally I'll take that as good enough reason to get the jab and move on with my life. Since I had open heart surgery last January and have an artificial heart valve I need to go to my local clinic every few weeks and get blood drawn to check my INR since I am on blood thinners. Getting the Covid vax when I'm there anyway getting blood drawn is the most trivial thing.

With the Omicron variant it looks like the ground is shifting once again as the new variant is more infectious and better at evading immunity. But it also looks like being fully vaccinated and having gotten a booster still provides much better protection than not being vaccinated. So I'm not particularly worried about it. I've done what I can do. And if a new booster comes out in 2022 that is targeted at omicron I'll go ahead and get it. It is a trivial hassle.

In my own immediate family circle of 12 people that spreads across 2 continents, everyone has been completely vaccinated and boosted as appropriate. And not one of us has caught Covid in the past 2 years. Even though half of us are in relatively high risk jobs. So what we are doing seems to be working.

I'm naturally immune, which is empirically more powerful than any current vaccine. I'm not worried about my own immunity. I took the risk to myself (solely) to be naturally infected, which means I'm less likely to get sick now or to spread the virus than if I'd chosen to be vaccinated.

I want to see the big picture Ken. Show me the pandemic ending, and how the vaccines are enabling that.

[silentreader]

I guess I can't tell the end date of the graphs shown, but from what it looks like, I'm guessing they are about a month out of date. In Ontario the big turn didn't begin until about the middle of the first week of December.
Official stats for today showed new cases 73.5% fully vaccinated and 19.7% unvaccinated. The differential based on rates was down to 1.4.