Coronavirus Outbreak

Things that are not part of politics happening presently and how we approach or address it as Anabaptists.
nett
Posts: 1953
Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:22 pm
Affiliation: Midwest Fellowship

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by nett »

Dan Z wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:24 am
Soloist wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 9:58 am
Dan Z wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 9:53 am
I think the data are coming around to the idea that, compared to vaccines, getting sick is the best way to keep from getting sick again...unfortunately, it's also the best way to infect your grandparents, the best way to get sent to a hospital, the best way to be put on a ventilator, and the best way to end up dead.
At this point one needs to consider what we have done with almost every other disease if you are reasonably caring about getting others sick. Don't go see grandma if your child is sick, avoid that immune deficient cousin after you were exposed, stay away from the guy about to get surgery even if its just a cold, don't go to church with coughing children.

The primary issue in our culture is that people are expected to work sick, or go to school as long as there isn't a fever or vomiting. My father would say it was his boss's job to send him home if he was sick and he needed to still go to work.
This is a very good point Soloist - all along, common sense learned over generations has provided the best course.
I think it logically follows that if you're young and healthy, obtaining natural immunity via infection is the most self-less choice. Vaccinated individuals are problematic carriers. Because symptoms are often not present as early or as severely, and vaccinated people tend to think they cannot be infected, they ignore the symptoms when they do get infected, and then spread the virus much more prolifically than the unvaccinated. I think this is part of the explanation of the seeming paradox of why despite the vaccine providing some protection, especially early on, case count, hospitalizations and death are not correlated with vaccination status on a national level whatsoever.

With Omicron's vaccine evading mutations, and it's mild symptoms. It seems increasingly inevitable that virtually everyone (vaccinated included) will be infected, and will either recover, gaining natural immunity (stronger if unvaccinated), or will die (in a very small percentage of cases)

Combined with the likelihood that vaccination reduces natural the strength of natural immunity (I showed my math earlier here), for those of us at low risk, the absolute best thing we can do for others, is to get infected and recover.

The older generations also have a responsibility to the younger generations to not lock us all down endlessly just because they are at higher risk, and won't be able to behave exactly the same as the lower risk populations. The elderly need to acknowledge their mortality and sacrifice some comfort and convenience for the younger generations.
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Ken
Posts: 21863
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:02 am
Location: Washington State
Affiliation: former MCUSA

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Ken »

New York City seems to be experiencing a new wave of Covid despite the fact that the city is highly vaccinated. Which would seem concerning. But when one drills down into the data one finds where the numbers are coming from: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/cov ... page#daily

These are the cases

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and these are the hospitalizations

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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Soloist

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Soloist »

Ken, do they actually post the raw numbers or just the per 100,000?
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nett
Posts: 1953
Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:22 pm
Affiliation: Midwest Fellowship

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by nett »

Ken wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:43 pm New York City seems to be experiencing a new wave of Covid despite the fact that the city is highly vaccinated. Which would seem concerning. But when one drills down into the data one finds where the numbers are coming from: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/cov ... page#daily

These are the cases

Image

and these are the hospitalizations

Image
When there is only 1 unvaccinated person left, when they contract COVID. then cases per 100,000 will rocket right up to 100,000, which will make the vaccines look wonderful.

Meanwhile, you forgot one. Didn't fit the narrative or what?
Screen Shot 2021-12-20 at 1.53.19 PM.png
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Soloist

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Soloist »

really rough numbers since I don't have the raw data, looks like 11k new cases from vaccinated and 16k for unvaccinated but I don't have accurate numbers.
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Ken
Posts: 21863
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:02 am
Location: Washington State
Affiliation: former MCUSA

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Ken »

OK, let's talk about the graph you just posted. This graph shows that the unvaccinated are dying at a rate that is 8.2-times higher than the vaccinated. The actual numbers are 0.25 deaths per 100,000 for vaccinated, and 2.05 per 100,000 for the unvaccinated on 12/4 which the most recent data point on the graph. (2.05 / 0.25 = 8.2 times higher) You have to click over to the original source and hover over the data points on the graph to see the underlying data as it is a dynamic graph that you can't fully capture with a screen shot.

And because deaths follow hospitalizations by about 2 weeks the recent surge in hospitalizations is also likely to produce a related surge in deaths in about 2 weeks. Should we check back in 2 weeks to find out?

Image
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Ken
Posts: 21863
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:02 am
Location: Washington State
Affiliation: former MCUSA

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Ken »

Soloist wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:52 pm Ken, do they actually post the raw numbers or just the per 100,000?
You have to go to the web site I linked to and drill down. They have all kinds of data. And the graphs are dynamic graphs so you can click through or over over data points to see the underlying numbers. You can't capture any of that with a screen shot.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Soloist

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Soloist »

Ken wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:07 pm
Soloist wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:52 pm Ken, do they actually post the raw numbers or just the per 100,000?
You have to go to the web site I linked to and drill down. They have all kinds of data. And the graphs are dynamic graphs so you can click through or over over data points to see the underlying numbers. You can't capture any of that with a screen shot.
its per 100,000 not the raw data
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Ken
Posts: 21863
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:02 am
Location: Washington State
Affiliation: former MCUSA

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Ken »

nett wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:53 pmWhen there is only 1 unvaccinated person left, when they contract COVID. then cases per 100,000 will rocket right up to 100,000, which will make the vaccines look wonderful.
Well sure. But NYC has an overall vaccination rate of 72% and a vaccination rate for ages 12 and up of 83 percent. So out of a population of 8.4 million that represents a total of 2.35 million who are unvaccinated. I don't know the 12 and up population for New York so I can't do the exact math for that subset of the population that is unvaccinated, but it would be well over 1 million. Plus there are millions more who live in the outlying suburbs but move through NYC every day.

Edit. Looks like about 1 million New Yorkers under age 12 so 7.4 million x 0.17 (percent unvaccinated) gives us 1.26 million unvaccinated New Yorkers over age 12. I was pretty close.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Ken
Posts: 21863
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:02 am
Location: Washington State
Affiliation: former MCUSA

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Ken »

Soloist wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:08 pm
Ken wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:07 pm
Soloist wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:52 pm Ken, do they actually post the raw numbers or just the per 100,000?
You have to go to the web site I linked to and drill down. They have all kinds of data. And the graphs are dynamic graphs so you can click through or over over data points to see the underlying numbers. You can't capture any of that with a screen shot.
its per 100,000 not the raw data
Here is the actual 7-day raw numbers for cases that is separated by probable and confirmed. But it isn't broken out by vaccinated and unvaccinated.

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You can also find the numbers displayed on the NYT Covid portal

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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
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