Coronavirus Outbreak

[Valerie]

I agree with this. However there are things that can be done to mitigate the spread.


I assume you are not intending this to be a factual statement, and rather as a suggestion for what you think people should think and do?

It’s a factual statement. Everyone is going to get it sooner or later (and being vaccinated doesn’t make much of a difference, particularly 6-12 months later; these experimental vaccines wear off).

“Slowing the spread” has no point. You’ll eventually get it anyway.

Nonsense Josh. Once again you are egregiously wrong about something. To date, nearly 2 years into the pandemic we have had a grand total of 46 million positive Covid results in this country, which is 13.9% of the population. Millions of which were asymptomatic. That is nothing close to “everyone”. Now that vaccines are ubiquitous it is highly likely that a large majority of Americans will never catch or face Covid.

What about the fact that you can't trust the test. The numbers mean nothing. I tested negative so I wouldn't have been counted as one who had covid. But in actuality I did have covid.

[Valerie]

“Slowing the spread” has no point. You’ll eventually get it anyway.

I'm finished with this discussion.

I understand Josh's point. It seems like there's going to be one variant after another. Right now they're vaccinating people against the alpha that doesn't even exist anymore. Vaccinated people are spreading it and the variant is seemingly more highly contagious. So what's next, now eight states reportedly have the next one. I think Josh's point is to be considered unless you crawl into a hole and unless you don't miss a beat you'll probably catch it. I never caught colds or flu going around where I worked for 7 years but I caught covid and I have no idea from who. I hadn't heard of anyone sick with covid for quite a while when I got it. My husband didn't catch it for me when I had it. So he was seemingly safe. He ended up and I see you in a 3-week hospital stay. Back when we first listen to doctors about the vaccine months ago they predicted exactly what is happening now if the population got vaccinated it would actually get worse.

[Ken]

It’s a factual statement. Everyone is going to get it sooner or later (and being vaccinated doesn’t make much of a difference, particularly 6-12 months later; these experimental vaccines wear off).

“Slowing the spread” has no point. You’ll eventually get it anyway.

Nonsense Josh. Once again you are egregiously wrong about something. To date, nearly 2 years into the pandemic we have had a grand total of 46 million positive Covid results in this country, which is 13.9% of the population. Millions of which were asymptomatic. That is nothing close to “everyone”. Now that vaccines are ubiquitous it is highly likely that a large majority of Americans will never catch or face Covid.

What about the fact that you can't trust the test. The numbers mean nothing. I tested negative so I wouldn't have been counted as one who had covid. But in actuality I did have covid.

Yes, the test isn't 100% accurate. No tests are. But the false negatives are balanced out to some extent by false positives. And false negatives that result in severe cases are most likely re-tested which increases the accuracy of the total numbers. And of course there are those who get the disease but never get tested.

Are the 46+ million total positive results the precise number of Covid cases in the US to date? Of course not. But they are the best number we have. What is the actual confidence interval? Who knows. I'm sure scientists have tried to calculate it but I'm too lazy to dive into the numbers. But I have seen plus/minus 5% tossed out as the accuracy level for the PCR test.

[Soloist]

Yes, the test isn't 100% accurate. No tests are. But the false negatives are balanced out to some extent by false positives. And false negatives that result in severe cases are most likely re-tested which increases the accuracy of the total numbers. And of course there are those who get the disease but never get tested.

Are the 46+ million total positive results the precise number of Covid cases in the US to date? Of course not. But they are the best number we have. What is the actual confidence interval? Who knows. I'm sure scientists have tried to calculate it but I'm too lazy to dive into the numbers. But I have seen plus/minus 5% tossed out as the accuracy level for the PCR test.

And repeat positives lower the accuracy of the total numbers.

[Ken]

Yes, the test isn't 100% accurate. No tests are. But the false negatives are balanced out to some extent by false positives. And false negatives that result in severe cases are most likely re-tested which increases the accuracy of the total numbers. And of course there are those who get the disease but never get tested.

Are the 46+ million total positive results the precise number of Covid cases in the US to date? Of course not. But they are the best number we have. What is the actual confidence interval? Who knows. I'm sure scientists have tried to calculate it but I'm too lazy to dive into the numbers. But I have seen plus/minus 5% tossed out as the accuracy level for the PCR test.

And repeat positives lower the accuracy of the total numbers.

Right. The point I was making is that there is error in both directions that will cancel each other out.

False negatives will provide an underestimate
Repeat positives will provide an overestimate

How close the official numbers are to the actual number is the big question that I doubt anyone knows. Although there are no doubt people studying that very question in the US and abroad. Personally I suspect the number is an underestimate because not everyone who gets sick gets tested. But how much of an underestimate is the question.

Nevertheless, the 13.9% seems somewhat reasonable. No one in my entire extended family has caught Covid that I know about. And the large majority of people I know and associate with professionally have never had Covid. So that number seems reasonable. We are also in a part of the country where the Covid numbers are well below the national average as well.

I do not believe it is remotely true that everyone will eventually get Covid as Josh claims. Two years into the pandemic, the first year of which was without vaccines, and it is still a pretty small minority of Americans who have caught the disease. I don't see that changing. Numbers are going down and we are getting better and better at controlling the disease.

[Falco Underhill]

Just out today, this article appears to answer all of Sen. Ron Johnson's questions about FDA Approval pretty thoroughly. I'm pretty impressed but I want to see how the Senator responds.

https://lynnwoodtimes.com/2021/10/19/fd ... fications/

[Falco Underhill]

U.S. federal appeals court freezes Biden's vaccine rule for companies

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-fed ... 021-11-06/

[Robert]

I have not heard of this anywhere else. We will see if it develops.

https://thefreethoughtproject.com/bmj-r ... rial-data/

Leading medical journal The BMJ has published an incendiary report exposing faked data, blind trial failures, poorly trained vaccinators, and a slow follow-up on adverse reactions in the phase-three trial of Pfizer’s Covid jab.
Central to the exposé is Brook Jackson, who, for two weeks, served as regional director at Ventavia Research Group, the company contracted to assist with the pivotal trial. She provided The BMJ with dozens of internal company documents, photos, audio recordings, and emails supporting her concerns.

Jackson reveals that Ventavia staff who conducted quality-control checks were overwhelmed by the volume of problems they were identifying. She repeatedly informed her superiors of poor laboratory management, and patient safety and data integrity issues.

In a cited internal document from August 2020, shortly after the Pfizer trial began, a Ventavia executive identified three site staff members with whom to “go over e-diary issue/falsifying data, etc.” One employee was said to have been subsequently “verbally counseled for changing data” and “not noting late entry.”

Jackson reported her concerns to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), but was fired later the same day on the basis that she was “not a good fit.”

[Dan Z]

What are your thoughts about the Merck and Pfizer antiviral pills as a supplement for early COVID treatment?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-pfizer ... p_catchall

[Josh]

What are your thoughts about the Merck and Pfizer antiviral pills as a supplement for early COVID treatment?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-pfizer ... p_catchall

It’s appropriate you posted a Yahoo Finance article. These pills will be good for their stock price.

Covid is like a cold. You can’t vaccinate your day out of it and you can’t avoid getting it either. Everyone is going to get it, eventually, unless you’re naturally immune.