Coronavirus Outbreak

[Bootstrap]

Delta has resulted in more deaths in nursing homes. So far, the analyses I have seen seem to indicate that boosters help in nursing homes. Am I missing something?

I think Wade was saying that people were dying in nursing homes DESPITE vaccines, not saying because of vaccines

Wade, is that true? Did I misunderstand you?

[Grace]

On a different tangent. There have been many people who have gotten into trouble for not wearing a required mask during the Covid outbreak.

In Washington DC, "Everyone (including fully vaccinated people) must wear masks"

https://coronavirus.dc.gov/sites/defaul ... 1-7-30.pdf

Except for Biden,when visiting an upscale swanky restaurant. "Rules for thee,but not me". The hypocrisy is astounding.

[Ernie]

I don't see it that way. This summer in Pennsylvania there was not much likelihood of an outbreak. I watched the maps and the outbreaks as a wave made it's way north from the southern states. I predicted the wave to hit PA towards the end of August and that is what happened.

There has been nonstop spread of COVID in basically the entire country for over a year now. The idea that "outbreaks" only happen infrequently is simply because you don't know about all the ones happening amongst your neighbours, people at the grocery store, etc.

Its probably how we define outbreaks. I'm maybe not using the right word.

[Ken]

I don't see it that way. This summer in Pennsylvania there was not much likelihood of an outbreak. I watched the maps and the outbreaks as a wave made it's way north from the southern states. I predicted the wave to hit PA towards the end of August and that is what happened.

There has been nonstop spread of COVID in basically the entire country for over a year now. The idea that "outbreaks" only happen infrequently is simply because you don't know about all the ones happening amongst your neighbours, people at the grocery store, etc.

Its probably how we define outbreaks. I'm maybe not using the right word.

Since you are talking about Pennsylvania. This is how the Covid pandemic has progressed in Pennsylvania since February 2020 in terms of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.



"Outbreaks" might not be the right word as it is still the same pandemic. "Waves" is probably the more commonly used descriptor. But it is certainly not uniform.

[ohio jones]

...or if an outbreak is possibly about to happen...

In other words, pretty much all the time, forever.

I don't see it that way. This summer in Pennsylvania there was not much likelihood of an outbreak. I watched the maps and the outbreaks as a wave made it's way north from the southern states. I predicted the wave to hit PA towards the end of August and that is what happened.

Makes sense. I probably would have worded it differently, maybe something like "if an outbreak is expected to be imminent." Sort of like the difference between a "possibly about to happen" tornado watch with general vigilance but little specific action, and a "here it comes" tornado warning which does call for definite activity in view of an identified threat.

[mike]

The CDC recently published data on Covid cases and deaths by vaccination status. The data includes vaccine products as well as age groups.

The data is from 16 US jurisdictions from April 4 through September 4 of 2021.

Overall cases by vaccination status:


Cases by vaccine product:


Cases by age group:


Overall deaths by vaccination status:


Deaths by vaccine product:

Note that deaths age 12-17 are not shown on the chart because of low numbers, and one can assume that ages 1-11 aren't shown for the same reason. It's clear that children with extremely rare exceptions are not dying of Covid.

Footnotes:


Deaths by age group:


The overall death rate in this chart peaks at 737 per 100,000 (.7%) for unvaccinated persons and 121 per 100,000 (.1%) for vaccinated persons. That's overall averages; and the lower risk age groups are clearly way below those percentages. It's clear that, vaccinated or unvaccinated, the likelihood of dying from Covid is there, but even for high risk folks it is low.

[Robert]

The overall death rate in this chart peaks at 737 per 100,000 (.7%) for unvaccinated persons and 121 per 100,000 (.1%) for vaccinated persons. That's overall averages; and the lower risk age groups are clearly way below those percentages. It's clear that, vaccinated or unvaccinated, the likelihood of dying from Covid is there, but even for high risk folks it is low.

Yes, our immune systems are learning to deal with a manmade, augmented virus quite well. Again, anyone under 60 should go live their live and only get vaccinated if they feel they are in a higher risk category. Anyone else is better off to get Covid, and recover because their immunity lasts lots longer.

Anyone 60+ should seriously consider vaccinating.

[Ernie]

On a different tangent. There have been many people who have gotten into trouble for not wearing a required mask during the Covid outbreak.

In Washington DC, "Everyone (including fully vaccinated people) must wear masks"

https://coronavirus.dc.gov/sites/defaul ... 1-7-30.pdf

Except for Biden,when visiting an upscale swanky restaurant. "Rules for thee,but not me". The hypocrisy is astounding.

The old woodcutter spoke again. “It is impossible to talk with you. You always draw conclusions. Life is so vast, yet you judge all of life with one page or one word. You see only a fragment. Unless you know the whole story, how can you judge?"

[mike]

The overall death rate in this chart peaks at 737 per 100,000 (.7%) for unvaccinated persons and 121 per 100,000 (.1%) for vaccinated persons. That's overall averages; and the lower risk age groups are clearly way below those percentages. It's clear that, vaccinated or unvaccinated, the likelihood of dying from Covid is there, but even for high risk folks it is low.

Yes, our immune systems are learning to deal with a manmade, augmented virus quite well. Again, anyone under 60 should go live their live and only get vaccinated if they feel they are in a higher risk category. Anyone else is better off to get Covid, and recover because their immunity lasts lots longer.

Anyone 60+ should seriously consider vaccinating.

There's risk in everything. I would prefer people to be free to choose their own level of risk as long as it doesn't put others in danger. And that's some of the complication with the Covid issue. Exercising our own freedom can put others in danger. People are most likely to exercise caution when it comes to their own safety; less so when it comes to others' safety. Governmental mandates are considered necessary to force people to consider the safety of others. This infringes on personal freedoms. There are plenty of people who really don't care about others that much. I don't know what the right balance is.

I think there is less risk in getting the vaccine even if you are healthy than in just getting covid. That's just my opinion. I have a friend my age who was extremely sick from Covid and almost needed hospitalization. For me, covid was just a headache, cold, and sick feeling for a week or so. It wasn't a big deal. For my dad, who has major risk factors, it was bad enough but he recovered without any treatment. But there are many, many people dying from Covid - people that could have lived for many years yet if not for catching the virus, even if they had risk factors. I know many plenty of older people who have high risk factors who refuse to get the vaccines because of garbage fake news they read online. I feel that is sad.

The reality is that the risk of hospitalization and death from Covid is still, and has always been, statistically very low. But it only takes a few percentage points of change in national rates for hundreds of thousands of excess deaths to happen. I personally think there are few good solutions to the Covid problem. Vaccines are the best defense other than natural immunity which comes with its own risks. I don't know what good all the mask and social distancing mandates have done. Probably they have done a little good in slowing the spread. Extreme cold and extreme heat causes people to be indoors with each other more which probably spreads the virus in ways that social distancing and masks can't really stop.

Medicines and vaccines and treatments will keep improving. Covid is a fact of life just like all other diseases. It is what it is. Maybe one day it will be wiped out like some other diseases. We are mortal. We're going to die of something. There are reasonable limits to everything.

I don't really feel I said much with all of the above but those are my thoughts at this point.

[GaryK]

I didn't verify this but with him being the former CDC director, I'm assuming he knows what he's talking about.