Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Bootstrap]

I think the central questions to be negotiated are:

1. Is there a cease fire that will still allow Ukraine to be viable?
2. How will that cease fire be monitored and enforced?
3. Are there any consequences for breaking the cease fire? If so, what are they?
4. In the long run, does the cease fire result in more deaths or fewer deaths?

If Trump can negotiate a real peace here, I will definitely give him credit for that.

[R7ehr]

Nobel Peace Prize should be a shoo in.

If he invades an even bigger country and creates an even bigger war and then agrees to a ceasefire, he will be an even bigger hero.

Shoo in for Trump.

[Southerner]

I have not seen this info on any major news outlets.

The New York Times reported on this:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/03/13 ... =url-share

President Vladimir V. Putin on Thursday made it clear he was in no hurry to agree to a cease-fire and wanted to continue negotiating with President Trump, telling reporters that Russia was in favor of a 30-day truce — but with numerous conditions.

His remarks, at a news conference in Moscow, came as U.S. officials were in Russia to discuss the cease-fire proposal that Ukraine has already agreed to.

“The idea itself is the right one, and we definitely support it,” Mr. Putin said. “But there are questions that we need to discuss, and I think that we need to talk them through with our American colleagues and partners.”

Those questions, Mr. Putin said, included whether Kyiv would be able to continue receiving arms shipments during the 30-day truce, and how the cease-fire would be monitored and enforced.

Mr. Putin also said Russia would not allow Ukrainian forces occupying land in Russia’s Kursk region to peacefully withdraw, and that the Ukrainian leadership could instead order them “to simply surrender.”

It was the first time that Mr. Putin had publicly addressed the cease-fire offer. While his conditions may be impossible for Ukraine to accept, he did not repeat his onerous demand from last year that a cease-fire would depend on Ukraine’s withdrawing from the four Ukrainian regions that Russia had declared as its own but did not fully control.

I was referencing this statement made by John H. "Trump just put major sanctions on Russia by removing the exception that allowed Europeans to do business with Russian banks to buy gas and oil." Only on Twitter as far as I can tell.

[Bootstrap]

I was referencing this statement made by John H. "Trump just put major sanctions on Russia by removing the exception that allowed Europeans to do business with Russian banks to buy gas and oil." Only on Twitter as far as I can tell.

I think he said he was "strongly considering" such sanctions. I don't remember seeing that he went through with those sanctions. The New York Times reported on that, too:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/us/p ... =url-share

President Trump said on Friday that he was “strongly considering” imposing sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a cease-fire and permanent peace deal was reached in its war with Ukraine, even as he defended Russia’s stepped-up attacks on Ukraine after the United States paused aid and intelligence sharing.

Asked in the Oval Office on Friday whether he believed Mr. Putin was taking advantage of the situation, which resulted from a tense Oval Office meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine last month, Mr. Trump defended Mr. Putin’s actions, saying “he’s doing what anybody else would do.”

“I think he’s hitting him harder than he’s been hitting him,” Mr. Trump said. “And I think probably anybody in that position would be doing that right now.”

[Southerner]

I was referencing this statement made by John H. "Trump just put major sanctions on Russia by removing the exception that allowed Europeans to do business with Russian banks to buy gas and oil." Only on Twitter as far as I can tell.

I think he said he was "strongly considering" such sanctions. I don't remember seeing that he went through with those sanctions. The New York Times reported on that, too:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/us/p ... =url-share

President Trump said on Friday that he was “strongly considering” imposing sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a cease-fire and permanent peace deal was reached in its war with Ukraine, even as he defended Russia’s stepped-up attacks on Ukraine after the United States paused aid and intelligence sharing.

Asked in the Oval Office on Friday whether he believed Mr. Putin was taking advantage of the situation, which resulted from a tense Oval Office meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine last month, Mr. Trump defended Mr. Putin’s actions, saying “he’s doing what anybody else would do.”

“I think he’s hitting him harder than he’s been hitting him,” Mr. Trump said. “And I think probably anybody in that position would be doing that right now.”

I am a NYT subscriber and yeah, I saw this...an article from last week.

[Robert]

I am a NYT subscriber

I am not. The only thing I would consider a subscription to is the Babylon Bee.

[JohnL]

Tinfoil hat thought.
After getting kicked out of the White House Zman went to Macron and King Charles and walked away empty-handed. Now we see both Zman and Putin putting in for the cease-fire. I still think it's a big possibility that these two are working together in a massive con job to line their own pockets (remember the missing money) and when the money train stopped they've decided to bail and play ceasefire. It's a hideous possibility. Either way both leaders were using their own citizens as red shirts. Horrendous.

We had a saying that money talks and, well, something else walks. The money is talking now. Zelenskyyyy has realized that shiploads of U.S. money by the billion aren't coming in anymore. Putin has realized he can ignore Europe, Europeans, and their endless talk (while he still sells them oil and gas), but that Trump means business.

Trump just put major sanctions on Russia by removing the exception that allowed Europeans to do business with Russian banks to buy gas and oil.

When you have a strong leader, peace is possible.

The reason I keep going back to the possibility that Zman and Putin are running some kind of con together is probably because of the book "The Mouse that Roared". There was a movie version of the same name that was a loose adaptation of the book. Look it up. It's a great parody of world diplomacy and politics.

[JohnH]

I think the central questions to be negotiated are:

1. Is there a cease fire that will still allow Ukraine to be viable?
2. How will that cease fire be monitored and enforced?
3. Are there any consequences for breaking the cease fire? If so, what are they?
4. In the long run, does the cease fire result in more deaths or fewer deaths?

If Trump can negotiate a real peace here, I will definitely give him credit for that.

Russia is much stronger than Ukraine, so a ceasefire is 100% in Ukraine's best interests. They need to accept the deal. They have been consistently losing territory. A ceasefire is, frankly, an opportunity they can rearm, retrench, and shore up their defenses of the territory they still hold. And leave the negotiating up to the U.S. with Russia - it seems Trump has been far better at it than anyone else. Trump will have a vested interest in making sure this conflict doesn't go hot again.

A Ukraine that gets sized down to the ethnic Ukrainian parts will be viable. I would also toss out there that the ethnic Russian parts are not really that happy about being part of Russia now (particularly Kherson, Odesa, etc.) - they might have been 3 years ago, but Russia's behavior in this "special military operation" has really caused a lot of ethnic Russians to sour on the Russian Federation. They will face serious difficulties trying to govern these areas. This is a pyrrhic victory for Russia, and ultimately I think it will prove to be as disastrous as their attempt to take over Afghanistan.

Ukraine will need to behave itself and not resume nonsense like they had pre-2014 of shelling Luhansk and Donestk; likewise Western powers need to avoid the nonsense they had of interfering in Ukrainian politics and installing their own people, like they did in the Orange Revolution or Euromaidan. With USAID defunded, this kind of nonsense should end. It was a ridiculous level of provocation of Russia and is, in my opinion, what led to Russia deciding it needed to take Crimea.

Whether any of us like it or not, Ukraine is in Russia's sphere of influence. The West and NATO should be content with having Poland, the Baltics, and Finland right on Russia's doorstep, and stop the sabre-rattling in Ukraine as well.

[temporal1]

Russia is much stronger than Ukraine, so a ceasefire is 100% in Ukraine's best interests. They need to accept the deal. They have been consistently losing territory. A ceasefire is, frankly, an opportunity they can rearm, retrench, and shore up their defenses of the territory they still hold. And leave the negotiating up to the U.S. with Russia - it seems Trump has been far better at it than anyone else. Trump will have a vested interest in making sure this conflict doesn't go hot again.

A Ukraine that gets sized down to the ethnic Ukrainian parts will be viable. I would also toss out there that the ethnic Russian parts are not really that happy about being part of Russia now (particularly Kherson, Odesa, etc.) - they might have been 3 years ago, but Russia's behavior in this "special military operation" has really caused a lot of ethnic Russians to sour on the Russian Federation. They will face serious difficulties trying to govern these areas. This is a pyrrhic victory for Russia, and ultimately I think it will prove to be as disastrous as their attempt to take over Afghanistan.

Ukraine will need to behave itself and not resume nonsense like they had pre-2014 of shelling Luhansk and Donestk; likewise Western powers need to avoid the nonsense they had of interfering in Ukrainian politics and installing their own people, like they did in the Orange Revolution or Euromaidan. With USAID defunded, this kind of nonsense should end. It was a ridiculous level of provocation of Russia and is, in my opinion, what led to Russia deciding it needed to take Crimea.

Whether any of us like it or not, Ukraine is in Russia's sphere of influence. The West and NATO should be content with having Poland, the Baltics, and Finland right on Russia's doorstep, and stop the sabre-rattling in Ukraine as well.

i appreciate the mostly ignored details you include here.

i’ve been trying to be patient for word on the proposed ceasefire, i’ve read differing reports, as expected. i’m hoping for the best, i.e., ceasefire leading to permanent non-military resolution.

as i’ve listened to statements from Z and Putin, i’m struck with how stubborn and willful both men are.

as time passes, this conflict makes me think of the U.S. Civil War.
then i wonder how that would have gone if a super power or super powers had taken up with the South?
is it really so much different?

[Bootstrap]

I think the central questions to be negotiated are:

1. Is there a cease fire that will still allow Ukraine to be viable?
2. How will that cease fire be monitored and enforced?
3. Are there any consequences for breaking the cease fire? If so, what are they?
4. In the long run, does the cease fire result in more deaths or fewer deaths?

If Trump can negotiate a real peace here, I will definitely give him credit for that.

Russia is much stronger than Ukraine, so a ceasefire is 100% in Ukraine's best interests.

Maybe not. Putin is saying Russia should be able to rearm during the cease fire, but Ukraine should not. I doubt that Ukraine would accept that deal. But it's still being negotiated, let's pray for peace.