Coronavirus Outbreak

[RZehr]

That may be the short answer, but the questions are not about whether it would or could, but if and had.

[Bootstrap]

The short answer is that it wouldn't have happened in America, because we don't have wet markets which have been the cause of multiple flu outbreaks for the last century, ranging from the Spanish Flu to H1N1 to SARS to the current disease. There are unique things about Chinese farming practices with poultry and pigs that lead to these novel diseases, alongside the way their wet market function being almost ideal vectors to spread these diseases.

I looked at the article you linked to. It doesn't say that they know the Spanish flu originated in China. It says that this is one likelihood.

The article does not mention wet markets, and it does not imply that a pandemic could not start in the United States.

For decades, scientists have debated where in the world the pandemic started, variously pinpointing its origins in France, China, the American Midwest, and beyond. Without a clear location, scientists have lacked a complete picture of the conditions that bred the disease and factors that might lead to similar outbreaks in the future.

Humphries concedes that a final answer to the mystery of the Spanish flu's origins is still a ways off.

"What we really need is a sample of the virus preserved in a burial for the medical experts to uncover," Humphries says. "That would have the best chances of settling the debate."

I think we do know that China has been a source of some scary diseases lately.

"I would say that the takeaway message of all of this is to keep your eye on China" as a source of emerging diseases, Higgins says. He points to concerns about avian flu and the SARS virus, both arising from Asia in the last decade.

But I doubt they have a monopoly.

[Josh]

That may be the short answer, but the questions are not about whether it would or could, but if and had.

Probably lots of anti-American nationalism outside of our border. Inside them, we'd see typical American crisis management: disorganised and chaotic, not very centralised, with some real heroes and some exceptional work done alongside major mistakes.

Given how past crises were dealt with (9/11, Katrina, and so on), I think that's a fair assessment of how we'd handle this.

One concern I have is that in 2020, our society is more fragmented than ever and seems to very prone to gross misinformation and generally has a lack of healthy social bonds. Our social bonds nowadays are mostly transactional and revolve around employment or spending/consuming, and a situation like this really stretches those bonds thin.

[Ken]

I think we do know that China has been a source of some scary diseases lately.

"I would say that the takeaway message of all of this is to keep your eye on China" as a source of emerging diseases, Higgins says. He points to concerns about avian flu and the SARS virus, both arising from Asia in the last decade.

But I doubt they have a monopoly.

China is also responsible for about 1/2 of the worlds carbon pollution and huge volumes of particulate pollution that can be detected continents away.

Interestingly, I read somewhere (don't have the link handy) that the coronavirus shutdown of the economy in China could have saved many more people from pollution-related respiratory deaths than actually died from coronavirus. There are reports that some cities had the clearest air and bluest skies they had seen in a decade or more. That's what happens when you shut down all the industry and cars. An estimated 1.6 million people die each year in China from heart, lung and stroke problems because of polluted air: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_in_China That is a death rate that exceeds coronavirus by several orders of magnitude.

[Josh]

I looked at the article you linked to. It doesn't say that they know the Spanish flu originated in China. It says that this is one likelihood.

The article portrays this as basically the historical consensus, and then quotes an expert as saying:

"I would say that the takeaway message of all of this is to keep your eye on China" as a source of emerging diseases, Higgins says. He points to concerns about avian flu and the SARS virus, both arising from Asia in the last decade.

Interestingly, what the article also pinpoints the way the disease spread into the U.S. was via a thirst for cheap labour, and then not giving that cheap labour adequate sick leave but instead stereotyping them as "lazy" when they fell ill.

The article does not mention wet markets,

There are plenty of other sources that pinpoint the origin of the last several novel diseases to wet markets. I don't even think that's in dispute.

and it does not imply that a pandemic could not start in the United States.

Obviously, one could, but in the last century, they've all started in China.

As I stated earlier, the spate of diseases in the last 20 years are a People's Republic of China problem. Other Chinese countries like Taiwan and Singapore don't have this problem.

I think it's very prudent to expect further diseases and outbreaks to come from the P.R. China, given their history of lying at all levels of government, running bioweapons labs (why on earth is any country doing this?), trying to steal bioweapons from other countries, and the shift in the culture there that the wealthy like to eat exotic wild animals. The culture there has become really strange, particularly amongst the elite, who are the most likely to travel and spread novel diseases.

I think it's very notable that in Republic of China (Taiwan), none of these problems are happening. Perhaps they should be put in charge of mainland China until we can figure out what's going on.

[Dan Z]

About 135,000 confirmed cases to date...

Looking at the map, does anybody really believe that Russia only has 45 cases so far?

[Josh]

Interestingly, I read somewhere (don't have the link handy) that the coronavirus shutdown of the economy in China could have saved many more people from pollution-related respiratory deaths than actually died from coronavirus. There are reports that some cities had the clearest air and bluest skies they had seen in a decade or more. That's what happens when you shut down all the industry and cars. An estimated 1.6 million people die each year in China from heart, lung and stroke problems because of polluted air: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_in_China That is a death rate that exceeds coronavirus by several orders of magnitude.

And because mainland China doesn't publish reliable economic statistics or have fair and open financial markets, measuring their pollution has been the best way for us to measure their level of economic output.

What is interesting is that these pollution problems can be cleaned up so quickly. Perhaps it's time to question just what the purpose is of spewing this much pollution into the atmosphere and causing untold death and destruction both in the present and in the future.

[Josh]

About 135,000 confirmed cases to date...

Looking at the map, does anybody really believe that Russia only has 45 cases so far?

I believe they have detected 45 cases...

Ohio claims to have 100,000 cases, but has not come close to confirming that many. I appreciate this degree of honesty and transparency from our Department of Health.

[HondurasKeiser]

Here is the best analysis I have seen of current pandemic trends and mortality rates across the world. Very interesting read

I read this a few days ago and found it, on balance, the most helpful analysis that I've seen.

[Ken]

Here is the best analysis I have seen of current pandemic trends and mortality rates across the world. Very interesting read

I read this a few days ago and found it, on balance, the most helpful analysis that I've seen.

It's a living document. The authors keep updating it with the latest information. Very well done and nicely sourced.