Coronavirus Outbreak

[temporal1]

That’s okay. These health organizations, if they are doing their job correctly, they should be the ones taking the strongest possible position against diseases. That’s their job.

They need to warn people, and prudence would dictate that they convey the serious potential of these. They shouldn’t take the optimistic lackadaisical route, that would be irresponsible in the extreme.

It’s the same with storm forecasters.
They usually end up over estimating the danger and power of these storms, because they want people to know the threats be aware of the possibilities, and take action for safety.
They aren’t trying to make a actual prediction, but rather possibilities.
I’m making a prediction. I don’t disagree with their possibilities.

These organizations goal is not precise accuracy because the consequences of over vs under estimating are so different. Lose your job and people die if it’s bigger vs nothing if it’s smaller.

I wouldn’t want the WHO and the health industry to take my position.
If they did, we would have a disaster.

My prediction of this being overblown is taking into account government and scientists and health organizations and heath workers taking this head on and throwing every effort at combating this.

My prediction is really a prediction of confidence in them being successful.

And the weather becoming warmer will help.

i appreciate your comparison to weather forecasts.

i think of pandemics much like other natural events/disasters.
a lot of it is attempting to IDENTIFY, PREVENT, RESPOND TO, a lot that is unknown.

politicizing is bad, it seems inevitable, in our current times.
thing is, those strictly politicizing may find themselves in just such a HOT SEAT in future,
then very much want cooperation and grace.

“Prepare for the worst, Hope for the best.”

[Szdfan]

The first death from the coronavirus in the US has been reported in Washington State.

[RZehr]

. China, where the outbreak began in December, has seen a slowdown in new infections and on Saturday morning reported 427 new cases over the past 24 hours along with 47 additional deaths. The city at the epicenter of the outbreak, Wuhan, accounted for the bulk of both.

New cases in mainland China have held steady at under 500 for past four days, with almost all of them in Wuhan and its surrounding Hubei province.

With the number of discharged patients now greatly exceeding those of new arrivals, Wuhan now has more than 5,000 spare beds in 16 temporary treatment centers, Ma Xiaowei, director of the National Health Commission, told a news conference in Wuhan on Friday.

[Dan Z]

I'm honestly not sure why these attitudes against the WHO exist - or the basis for such distrust. From what I have learned and seen first hand the WHO has a well earned reputation and well credentialed expertise in situations like this, and serves as one of the world's first lines of defense in mobilizing an international response against diseases that, unfortunately, have little regard for boundaries and national sovereignty.

Anyway, Josh's post got me wondering, so I reviewed WHO warnings and guidelines related to Coronavirus since the disease was first identified in early January. Look for yourself. I don't see any dismissiveness of the virus. To the contrary, the WHO has been quite forthcoming and regular about what it knows, and the threat level it perceives based on the information is has at any given moment. Its earliest advisories were not alarmist because the disease was quite local and knowledge was limited. They have now raised the threat significantly as the disease manifests itself in clusters across the globe. From all I can see, the WHO are living up to the standards I listed in my earlier post. I'm inclined to believe what they say and recommend.

[RZehr]

. Israeli scientists are on the cusp of developing the first vaccine against the novel coronavirus, according to Science and Technology Minister Ofir Akunis. If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be ready within a few weeks and available in 90 days, according to a release.

[Szdfan]

. Israeli scientists are on the cusp of developing the first vaccine against the novel coronavirus, according to Science and Technology Minister Ofir Akunis. If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be ready within a few weeks and available in 90 days, according to a release.

Could you please post links to the sources? Thanks.

[Ken]

Listening to the news this morning, one big seminal test is going to be the Tokyo Olympics which are scheduled for late July this year. You couldn't create a better transmission vector than to bring hundreds of thousands of athletes and fans together from every country on the planet, have them mix in close proximity for 2 weeks, then send them all home.

At some point if this pandemic worsens they will have to decide whether or not to pull the plug on the Olympics. Most likely scenario would be to just postpone it for a year and do Tokyo 2021. They will not be able to push this decision off until the last minute. Most likely they will have to make it by April or May at the very latest, which is 1-2 months away.

Words, press conferences, action plans, and that kind of thing are all well and good. But canceling multi-billion dollar events like the Olympics that affect hundreds of thousands of people is when it starts to really get real.

[Dan Z]

Listening to the news this morning, one big seminal test is going to be the Tokyo Olympics which are scheduled for late July this year. You couldn't create a better transmission vector than to bring hundreds of thousands of athletes and fans together from every country on the planet, have them mix in close proximity for 2 weeks, then send them all home.

At some point if this pandemic worsens they will have to decide whether or not to pull the plug on the Olympics. Most likely scenario would be to just postpone it for a year and do Tokyo 2021. They will not be able to push this decision off until the last minute. Most likely they will have to make it by April or May at the very latest, which is 1-2 months away.

Words, press conferences, action plans, and that kind of thing are all well and good. But canceling multi-billion dollar events like the Olympics that affect hundreds of thousands of people is when it starts to really get real.

Zika virus put a dent in World Cup attendance a few years ago if I recall. I predict they will postpone the Olympics for one year to let the virus run its course, and the vaccine regimen get ahead of things.

[temporal1]

. Israeli scientists are on the cusp of developing the first vaccine against the novel coronavirus, according to Science and Technology Minister Ofir Akunis. If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be ready within a few weeks and available in 90 days, according to a release.

Could you please post links to the sources? Thanks.

There are some on Page 18.
The U.S. and Canada are working on vaccines, too.

Tokyo is on the radar.
Trump spoke of Tokyo in his remarks about VP Pence as leader of the U.S. Cvirus Task Team.
The economics is a big deal, of course. The virus was just identified in China in DECEMBER.

The U.S. has 104 busy International airports, operating day+night.

“Outbreak starts to look more like worldwide economic crisis”
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... rts-parks/

NEW YORK (AP) — The coronavirus outbreak began to look more like a worldwide economic crisis Friday as anxiety about the infection emptied shops and amusement parks, canceled events, cut trade and travel and dragged already slumping financial markets even lower.

More employers told their workers to stay home, and officials locked down neighborhoods and closed schools. The wide-ranging efforts to halt the spread of the illness threatened jobs, paychecks and profits.

“This is a case where in economic terms the cure is almost worse than the disease,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “When you quarantine cities … you lose economic activity that you’re not going to get back.’

The list of countries touched by the illness climbed to nearly 60
as Mexico, Belarus, Lithuania, New Zealand, Nigeria, Azerbaijan, Iceland and the Netherlands reported their first cases.

More than 83,000 people worldwide have contracted the illness, with deaths topping 2,800.

China, where the outbreak began in December, has seen a slowdown in new infections and on Saturday morning reported 427 new cases over the past 24 hours along with 47 additional deaths. The city at the epicenter of the outbreak, Wuhan, accounted for the bulk of both.

New cases in mainland China have held steady at under 500 for past four days, with almost all of them in Wuhan and its surrounding Hubei province.

Some school closings in Washington and Oregon.
The WA death was in Everett, about 25 miles north of Seattle, Everett is the central factory location for Boeing.

From what i read, the first case(s) in Washington were in January.
Within weeks of the first cases in China.

Huge Asian population and travel all over the U.S. West coast; and, all over.
“We”-all are now quite accustomed to international air travel.
(i think of it as) 21st Century Greyhound bus travel.

[Judas Maccabeus]

So that article was from 2014 before Ron Klain had even taken the position.

Did any of those dire predictions end up happening?
Did the Obama Administration botch the Ebola response as a result?
Was Ron Klain incompetent in his job? Did political meddling by the White House hamper the ebola response? Did ebola end up spreading across the US?

Not responding for Grace.

RK’s involvement in Solyndra should have prevented him from any elected or appointed gov office.
Why didn’t it?

How can you accept his appointment then blast VP Pence’s appointment?
i did not like anything about the RK appointment, but, as you say, my fears did not come about, so, i cannot question VP Pence’s appointment at this time.

i can be disgusted that others who did not question RK, now want to blast away at VP Pence.
VP Pence has no Solyndra record. His biggest sin is being an unapologetic faithful husband to one wife.

.. and, don’t believe his “sin” is not a BIG issue that-does-not-rest for many in politics.

Personally I think they are setting Mike Pence up to be the fall guy on this (and to deflect any future blame away from Trump) in an eventual move to replace him on the ticket with someone younger and more potentially interesting to swing voters. Like maybe Nikki Haley. I'm guessing that they might now assume that Trump already has the conservative evangelical vote locked up that Pence was brought in in 2016 to solidify and they may be looking for someone with wider appeal for the 2020 campaign.

It will be interesting to revisit this in 6 months and see if any of that happened.

Maybe Don Jr.?