US Attacks Iran 2026

[Robert]

I listened to the President's speech last night. Sounds like the conflict with Iran will wrap up soon. I see little indications this will be a long protracted conflict. I am intentionally not calling this a war because it has not been declared a war. Wording is important. I am trying to be truthful and precise, not sensational or exaggerate. In all honesty, this is not that large of a conflict if we look over the past 20-30 years of presidential military actions. Even Vietnam was never a declared war, but a military action. The last time the Congress declared war was WW2.

[Ernie]

I listened to the President's speech last night. Sounds like the conflict with Iran will wrap up soon. I see little indications this will be a long protracted conflict. I am intentionally not calling this a war because it has not been declared a war. Wording is important. I am trying to be truthful and precise, not sensational or exaggerate. In all honesty, this is not that large of a conflict if we look over the past 20-30 years of presidential military actions. Even Vietnam was never a declared war, but a military action. The last time the Congress declared war was WW2.

From Trump last night...

Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks.

March 10

President Trump said, "I think the war is very complete, pretty much."

March 12

Reporter: You just said it is a little excursion, and you said it is a war. So which one is it?

President Trump: Well, it's both. It's an excursion that will keep us out of a war, and the war is going to be — for them it's a war, for us it turned out to be easier than we thought.

[Soloist]

I would also point out American bombing campaign on both Germany WW2 and Vietnam was even heavier and more damaging. Both had boots on the ground.


My predictions I would rank on reliability:

Taking a single strategic island 95%

Taking multiple islands 80%

Landing on Mainland as a control the channel goal, 45%

A tactical strike to steal the Uranium or neutralize it, 50%

Withdrawing with air bombing campaign only 5%

[barnhart]

I think soloist has it about right. I would add:

Chances of the campaign being completely over in two years: 20%

Chances of massive immigrant flows to Europe: 50%

Chances of a more humane regime: 30%

[JohnH]

Chances of massive immigrant flows to Europe: 50%

Ah, there it is.

The real agenda of the progressive-left.

[ohio jones]

Chances of massive immigrant flows to Europe: 50%

Ah, there it is.

The real agenda of the progressive-left.

To enable millions of people to say "I ran"?

[JohnH]

So far away?

[Judas Maccabeus]

Grok:

Conscientious Objector (CO) Status in the US Military - 2026

Overview (as of April 2026)

Conscientious objector status remains a legally protected option for active-duty US service members under Department of Defense Instruction 1300.06 (last major update 2017, still in effect). It allows qualified individuals to seek discharge or reassignment based on sincere moral, ethical, or religious opposition to war.

Key Requirements:

• Beliefs must be firm, fixed, and sincere.
• Opposition must be to war in any form (not selective to one conflict, e.g., current Iran operations).
• Beliefs can be religious or deeply held moral/ethical (parallel to religious conviction).
• For those who enlisted, beliefs typically must have "crystallized" after joining the military.
• Cannot be based solely on politics, policy disagreements, pragmatism, or expediency.

Process:

• Submit a detailed written application (personal statement, supporting evidence, witness statements).
• Undergo interviews: chaplain, psychiatrist/mental health, and investigating officer.
• Packet reviewed up the chain of command to a service-specific CO Review Board.
• Decision: Approve for discharge (usually honorable) or 1-A-O non-combatant status, or deny.

How Secure Is It in 2026?

Moderately secure on paper, but practically challenging — especially during active conflicts like the 2026 Iran operations.

• Legal Protections: DoD policy requires commands to process applications and accommodate beliefs while pending. Refusal to process can be challenged. International human rights standards (e.g., UN recognition of CO as non-derogable right) add external pressure, though not directly binding.
• Approval Rates: Historically low for active-duty (many denials if sincerity questioned or appears selective). Process takes months; during wartime surges, scrutiny may increase.
• Current Context (2026): Reports show a massive ~1000% spike in inquiries and filings from service members (including Marines) opposed to Iran deployments. Advocacy groups like Center on Conscience & War are heavily involved. This indicates the system is accessible and being used, but does not guarantee higher approval rates.
• Risks & Limitations:
  • Submitting does not automatically stop deployment orders or duties.
  • Denial means you must still obey lawful orders (refusal can lead to disciplinary action, including court-martial).
  • Command climate can vary — some commanders accommodate promptly; others may delay or pressure.
  • In a major conflict/draft scenario, processing could slow or face heavier skepticism for "wartime" claims.

Bottom Line:

CO status is real and codified — not a myth — and has led to successful discharges or non-combat roles for those who meet the strict sincerity/all-wars test. However, it is not foolproof or quick. Success depends heavily on the strength of your evidence and consistency of beliefs. During 2026's heightened tensions, more people are trying it, but outcomes remain case-by-case.

Recommendation: Contact independent groups immediately for guidance:
- Center on Conscience & War (centeronconscience.org)
- GI Rights Hotline (girightshotline.org)

This is not legal advice — consult qualified counselors or military defense counsel for your specific situation.

[spoiler]Sources & Further Reading
- DoD Instruction 1300.06
- Center on Conscience & War Guide for Military COs
- GI Rights Hotline resources
- Recent news on 2026 CO surge (AS USA, Democracy Now, Snopes)[/spoiler]

Good information. It does, however have to do with people who are already in the military.

[Judas Maccabeus]

I could offer this, though: we did endure in America around 6 years ago churches being told they couldn't meet, and yes, that happened under an ostensibly Catholic President and governor (of California). That is the closest I have ever come, personally, to attending an "illegal" church service. However, it wasn't an Anabaptist church service, so it would not meet barnhart's stated criteria.

I had no idea Trump was Catholic.

It is my understanding he is Presbyterian, although he does not appear to have official membership. His wife is Catholic.

[JohnH]

I could offer this, though: we did endure in America around 6 years ago churches being told they couldn't meet, and yes, that happened under an ostensibly Catholic President and governor (of California). That is the closest I have ever come, personally, to attending an "illegal" church service. However, it wasn't an Anabaptist church service, so it would not meet barnhart's stated criteria.

I had no idea Trump was Catholic.

It is my understanding he is Presbyterian, although he does not appear to have official membership. His wife is Catholic.

He has not claimed to be Christian at all.