Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[JohnH]

The notion seems to be that Russia and the United States get to negotiate the fate of another country, and that country is just a pawn in their hands?

I mean, Ukraine could certainly seek to negotiate with Russia on their own, but so far they haven't shown much success in doing so.

[temporal1]

Ukraine isn’t actually a pawn and the US doesn’t actually have power to force any solution in my opinion. Just economic and military aid incentives which do mean something, but I’m starting to think that an EU that is awake to Russian aggression and is rearming might actually have the wherewithal to prop up the Ukraine without much US help. I think that has been one of Trump’s goals.

This is how it looks to me; it seems to be how the EU sees it and agrees with it.

[mike]

It is really starting to sound like the Trump admin's latest plan to end the war might finally be the framework for ending the conflict. Zelensky sounds really resigned here, and his message to his people sounds like a rationale for capitulating to the 28-point plan. The end of the war was probably always going to be a sad deal for Ukraine, but the bright side of this deal for them is that the country continues to exist and probably has more and better prepared allies than had before the war.

[mike]

The 28-point peace proposal. It's kind of hard to read and contains a lot of pain for Ukraine, and although it does not let Russia completely off the hook, it reinvites Russia into the community of nations. I wonder if Russia considers what is has gained as being worth what they have spent.

[JohnH]

It's interesting the Zelensky's position changed to being willing to accept compromises. It's also interesting that Putin's changed too. It may be a sign the war wasn't going well for either of them anymore.

[mike]

Many people unhappy with the plan, regardless of the fact that the conflict began under the previous administration and, in the early days of the war, looked like it would lead to the collapse of Ukraine. Until now, Trump has essentially continued the Biden policy of aiding Ukraine just enough to keep it from defeat but not enough to gain victory. Now it's potentially being wrapped up. The world is tired of the war, and yet many like Sanders apparently want it to continue forever. One wonders why he did not advocate for supporting Ukraine better under the previous president.

[Soloist]

Many people unhappy with the plan, regardless of the fact that the conflict began under the previous administration and, in the early days of the war, looked like it would lead to the collapse of Ukraine. Until now, Trump has essentially continued the Biden policy of aiding Ukraine just enough to keep it from defeat but not enough to gain victory. Now it's potentially being wrapped up. The world is tired of the war, and yet many like Sanders apparently want it to continue forever. One wonders why he did not advocate for supporting Ukraine better under the previous president.

Beats me on Sanders, the US policy has been fairly consistent, although I would not say Trump has done the same strategy. He has used the aid as a tool to pressure Ukraine into a deal rather then "support"
America has never militarily cared about Ukraine, Russia on the other hand...

I'm guessing things are very close to collapse if Ukraine is actually seriously considering this.

[Ernie]

Zelensky's speech today:

English translation:
Ukrainians, there comes a time in the life of every nation when everyone needs to talk. Honestly, calmly, without speculation, rumors, gossip, without anything unnecessary. As it is, as I always try to speak to you. Now is one of the most difficult moments in our history. The pressure on Ukraine is now among the heaviest. Ukraine may now face a very difficult choice: the loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner. Difficult 28 points, or an extremely harsh winter. The hardest, and further risks. Life without freedom, without dignity, without justice, and to believe the one who has already attacked twice.

People expect an answer from us. But in fact, I already gave it on May 20, 2019, when, taking the oath of loyalty to Ukraine, I said in particular: “I, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, elected by the people as President of Ukraine, pledge by all my deeds to defend the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine, to defend the rights and freedoms of citizens, to adhere to the Constitution and laws of Ukraine, to fulfill my duties in the interests of all compatriots, and to elevate the authority of Ukraine in the world.”

For me, this is not a protocol formality for a tick, this is an oath. Every day, I remain faithful to every word of it. I will never betray it. The national Ukrainian interest must be taken into account.

We will not make loud statements, but will calmly work with America and all partners. There will be constructive search for solutions with our main partner. I will provide arguments, I will persuade, propose alternatives, but we will definitely not give the enemy reasons to say that Ukraine does not want peace, that it is disrupting the process, that Ukraine is not ready for diplomacy. This will not happen.

Ukraine will work quickly. Today, Saturday and Sunday, all next week and as long as it is necessary in 24/7 mode, I will fight to ensure that among all the points of the plan, at least two are not missed. These are the dignity and freedom of Ukrainians, because everything else is based on this: our sovereignty, our independence, our land, our people, and Ukraine’s future.

We will and must do everything so that the result is the end of the war, and not the end of Ukraine. The end of Europe and global peace.

I just spoke to Europeans, we count on European friends who definitely understand that Russia is not somewhere far away, that it is right next to the borders of the EU, that now Ukraine is the only shield between comfortable European life and Putin’s plans.

We remember Europe was with us. We believe Europe will be with us.

Ukraine must not see déjà vu of February 24, when it seemed we were alone, when nobody could stop Russia except our heroic people who stood like a wall against Putin’s army. It was certainly gratifying when the world said, “Ukrainians, they are incredible. God, look at those Ukrainians, how they fight, how they resist, what titans they are.” And it’s true, absolutely.

But Europe and the world must also understand another truth: Ukrainians are, first of all, people. For almost four years of full-scale invasion, we have held back one of the largest armies in the world. We hold a frontline thousands of kilometers long. Our people endure attacks, missile strikes, ballistic strikes, drone strikes nightly. Our people lose loved ones every day. Our people want very much for this war to end. We are, of course, made of steel, but even the strongest metal can break. Do not forget this—be with Ukraine, be with our people, be on the side of dignity and freedom.

Dear Ukrainians, remember the first day of the war. Most of us made a choice. A choice for Ukraine. Remember how we felt then? It was dark, loud, hard, painful for many, frightening, but the enemy didn’t see our backs running away. He saw our eyes full of readiness to fight for what is ours. And that is dignity, that is freedom. And that, truly, is the most terrifying thing for Russia—to see the unity of Ukrainians.

Then, our unity was aimed at protecting our home from the enemy. Now, unity is needed as never before so that peace in our home will be worthy.

I am addressing all Ukrainians now. Our people, citizens, politicians—everyone. We must come together, get a grip, stop squabbling, stop political games. The state must work, a wartime parliament must work united, a wartime government must work effectively. And we all, all together, must not forget nor confuse who is Ukraine’s enemy today.

I remember the first day of the war, when various messengers brought me various plans, points, ultimatums for ending the war. They said: “Either this way, or no way. Either you sign this, or you will simply be eliminated, and somebody else will sign as acting President of Ukraine.” The result is known. Many of those envoys became part of an exchange fund and went home together with their proposals.

I did not betray Ukraine then. I felt the support of each one of you, every Ukrainian man and woman, every soldier, volunteer, medic, diplomat, journalist, all of our people. We did not betray Ukraine then, we will not do it now. I also know for sure this is truly one of the hardest moments in our history.

And I am not alone—Ukrainians believe in their state, we are united, and in any future format of meetings, discussions, negotiations with partners, it will be much, much easier for me to achieve honorable peace for us and convince them, knowing 100% that the people of Ukraine are behind me. Millions of our people have dignity, fight for freedom, and deserve peace. All our fallen heroes who gave their lives for Ukraine, who now are in heaven, and deserve to see from there that their children and grandchildren will live in a dignified peace. And this peace will be worthy, effective, long-lasting.

Dear Ukrainians, next week will be very difficult, eventful. You are a mature, intelligent, conscious people who have proved this more than once. Who understand that at this time there will be a lot of pressure—political, informational, various kinds—to weaken and divide us. The enemy does not sleep and will do everything to make us fail.

Will we let them do it? ... We have no right. And we will succeed. Because those who want to destroy us know us badly, do not understand who we really are, what we are, what we are about, what kind of people we are.

It is not for nothing that we celebrate the Day of Dignity and Freedom as a state holiday. It tells who we are, what our values are. We will work in the diplomatic field for our peace. We must work united inside Ukraine for our peace, dignity, and freedom.

And I believe, and I know, that I am not alone—my people, society, warriors, partners, allies, all our people, worthy, free, and united, are with me.

Happy Day of Dignity and Freedom. Glory to Ukraine.

[Ernie]

Another Ukraine Peace Scare

One way of trying to make sense of the pendulum swings.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/another-ukr ... e-eb41e179

[ken_sylvania]

Zelensky's speech today:

English translation:
Ukrainians, there comes a time in the life of every nation when everyone needs to talk. Honestly, calmly, without speculation, rumors, gossip, without anything unnecessary. As it is, as I always try to speak to you. Now is one of the most difficult moments in our history. The pressure on Ukraine is now among the heaviest. Ukraine may now face a very difficult choice: the loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner. Difficult 28 points, or an extremely harsh winter. The hardest, and further risks. Life without freedom, without dignity, without justice, and to believe the one who has already attacked twice.

People expect an answer from us. But in fact, I already gave it on May 20, 2019, when, taking the oath of loyalty to Ukraine, I said in particular: “I, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, elected by the people as President of Ukraine, pledge by all my deeds to defend the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine, to defend the rights and freedoms of citizens, to adhere to the Constitution and laws of Ukraine, to fulfill my duties in the interests of all compatriots, and to elevate the authority of Ukraine in the world.”

For me, this is not a protocol formality for a tick, this is an oath. Every day, I remain faithful to every word of it. I will never betray it. The national Ukrainian interest must be taken into account.

We will not make loud statements, but will calmly work with America and all partners. There will be constructive search for solutions with our main partner. I will provide arguments, I will persuade, propose alternatives, but we will definitely not give the enemy reasons to say that Ukraine does not want peace, that it is disrupting the process, that Ukraine is not ready for diplomacy. This will not happen.

Ukraine will work quickly. Today, Saturday and Sunday, all next week and as long as it is necessary in 24/7 mode, I will fight to ensure that among all the points of the plan, at least two are not missed. These are the dignity and freedom of Ukrainians, because everything else is based on this: our sovereignty, our independence, our land, our people, and Ukraine’s future.

We will and must do everything so that the result is the end of the war, and not the end of Ukraine. The end of Europe and global peace.

I just spoke to Europeans, we count on European friends who definitely understand that Russia is not somewhere far away, that it is right next to the borders of the EU, that now Ukraine is the only shield between comfortable European life and Putin’s plans.

We remember Europe was with us. We believe Europe will be with us.

Ukraine must not see déjà vu of February 24, when it seemed we were alone, when nobody could stop Russia except our heroic people who stood like a wall against Putin’s army. It was certainly gratifying when the world said, “Ukrainians, they are incredible. God, look at those Ukrainians, how they fight, how they resist, what titans they are.” And it’s true, absolutely.

But Europe and the world must also understand another truth: Ukrainians are, first of all, people. For almost four years of full-scale invasion, we have held back one of the largest armies in the world. We hold a frontline thousands of kilometers long. Our people endure attacks, missile strikes, ballistic strikes, drone strikes nightly. Our people lose loved ones every day. Our people want very much for this war to end. We are, of course, made of steel, but even the strongest metal can break. Do not forget this—be with Ukraine, be with our people, be on the side of dignity and freedom.

Dear Ukrainians, remember the first day of the war. Most of us made a choice. A choice for Ukraine. Remember how we felt then? It was dark, loud, hard, painful for many, frightening, but the enemy didn’t see our backs running away. He saw our eyes full of readiness to fight for what is ours. And that is dignity, that is freedom. And that, truly, is the most terrifying thing for Russia—to see the unity of Ukrainians.

Then, our unity was aimed at protecting our home from the enemy. Now, unity is needed as never before so that peace in our home will be worthy.

I am addressing all Ukrainians now. Our people, citizens, politicians—everyone. We must come together, get a grip, stop squabbling, stop political games. The state must work, a wartime parliament must work united, a wartime government must work effectively. And we all, all together, must not forget nor confuse who is Ukraine’s enemy today.

I remember the first day of the war, when various messengers brought me various plans, points, ultimatums for ending the war. They said: “Either this way, or no way. Either you sign this, or you will simply be eliminated, and somebody else will sign as acting President of Ukraine.” The result is known. Many of those envoys became part of an exchange fund and went home together with their proposals.

I did not betray Ukraine then. I felt the support of each one of you, every Ukrainian man and woman, every soldier, volunteer, medic, diplomat, journalist, all of our people. We did not betray Ukraine then, we will not do it now. I also know for sure this is truly one of the hardest moments in our history.

And I am not alone—Ukrainians believe in their state, we are united, and in any future format of meetings, discussions, negotiations with partners, it will be much, much easier for me to achieve honorable peace for us and convince them, knowing 100% that the people of Ukraine are behind me. Millions of our people have dignity, fight for freedom, and deserve peace. All our fallen heroes who gave their lives for Ukraine, who now are in heaven, and deserve to see from there that their children and grandchildren will live in a dignified peace. And this peace will be worthy, effective, long-lasting.

Dear Ukrainians, next week will be very difficult, eventful. You are a mature, intelligent, conscious people who have proved this more than once. Who understand that at this time there will be a lot of pressure—political, informational, various kinds—to weaken and divide us. The enemy does not sleep and will do everything to make us fail.

Will we let them do it? ... We have no right. And we will succeed. Because those who want to destroy us know us badly, do not understand who we really are, what we are, what we are about, what kind of people we are.

It is not for nothing that we celebrate the Day of Dignity and Freedom as a state holiday. It tells who we are, what our values are. We will work in the diplomatic field for our peace. We must work united inside Ukraine for our peace, dignity, and freedom.

And I believe, and I know, that I am not alone—my people, society, warriors, partners, allies, all our people, worthy, free, and united, are with me.

Happy Day of Dignity and Freedom. Glory to Ukraine.

To me it sounds like he may be intending to reject the 28-point plan in its current form.