Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Ken]

If one were asking me, which they aren't, I don't like any 'guarantee's' either. Different sides goad each other into war and then there you are fighting there wars for them. It seems foolish to me to lock oneself into a security guarantee, that is, a promise to get violent. If they want that, then maybe they ought to be annexed.

That was kind of the premise of the original EU and its predecessors. Not to mention the United States.

Not the EU. That's an economic union.

But it is the premise of NATO.

[ohio jones]

If one were asking me, which they aren't, I don't like any 'guarantee's' either. Different sides goad each other into war and then there you are fighting there wars for them. It seems foolish to me to lock oneself into a security guarantee, that is, a promise to get violent. If they want that, then maybe they ought to be annexed.

That was kind of the premise of the original EU and its predecessors. Not to mention the United States.

Not the EU. That's an economic union.

But it is the premise of NATO.

There's some overlap between NATO and EU's CSDP. But really, economics and war are basically interdependent.

[mike]

There is only one European country dragging the world into war. And it isn't any of these.

By stating that they want USA plus Europe security guarantees, aren’t they asking for the USA to be willing to enter an armed conflict? I mean, those kinds of guarantees exist already with NATO, but I assume they want the US to also enter some sort of security agreement with Ukraine. Maybe I am reading too much into that point, but I’m pretty sure that the EU wants the US to provide more security guarantees than what they are currently already in with NATO.

Security guarantees would be part and parcel of a peace agreement and not something agreed to in the middle of the conflict.

In other words, if you want a peace agreement in which Ukraine would make concessions and demobilize and transition to a civilian economy you need to provide some guarantee that they can safely do so, and aren't just opening themselves up to the next attack.

Every peace agreement entails compromise and conciliation of some sort. Both sides need to make concessions in order to reach some sort of stable peace. And it must be enforceable in some matter. Hence the call for security guarantees.

Everything I have heard to date involves demands for concessions on the part of Ukraine. What concessions have you heard demanded of Russia from say the Trump Administration? Any? What concessions is Russia willing to make to reach peace? Can you articulate any you have heard? I cannot. And without that side of the equation, none of this is particularly serious.

The response of Europe and the United States in the past several years has been relatively unserious. Feeding Ukraine just enough weapons and money to keep it from completely falling down, but stopping far short of giving the kind of offensive weapons it needs to regain territory, and of course, not getting anywhere near putting their own soldiers at risk. In terms of support, this has just not been cutting it. Let’s be honest.

What I mean by saying that Europe is trying to set up World War III is that its demand for the United States to become involved in security guarantees puts the US in the same position as Great Britain at the beginning of World War II, where its agreements with European nations like France and Poland drew it into the war.

A US official yesterday, I can’t remember which one, said essentially that the US would enter into an article 5 style agreement with Ukraine, which is essentially what NATO membership would provide for the Ukraine. I don’t remember hearing before that the US was willing to enter into any sort of security agreement like that with the Ukraine. So it seems like a concession on the part of the United States to be willing to enter such an agreement.

I believe that sort of security guarantee is what Ukraine has been wanting from the United States and Europe all along, but has not been able to get. It would not surprise me that this sort of security guarantee would be enough to get popular Ukrainian support for ceding, or at least agreeing to stop fighting for the return of, the territory to Russia that it currently controls.

I have not heard either of what concessions are being asked of Russia. If the United States and Europe have not been willing to go all the way in order to stop Russia, what position do they have from which to demand concessions from Russia? I imagine that the summit in Alaska involved the United States asking Russia for concessions. I suppose we shall see quite soon what if anything Russia would be willing to “concede”.

[JohnH]

If Ukraine wants a blank check for US protection then they have to become a US client state. That includes installing whatever leader the U.S. wants, as opppsed to one who back talks like a disobedient child.

[Ken]

I have not heard either of what concessions are being asked of Russia. If the United States and Europe have not been willing to go all the way in order to stop Russia, what position do they have from which to demand concessions from Russia? I imagine that the summit in Alaska involved the United States asking Russia for concessions. I suppose we shall see quite soon what if anything Russia would be willing to “concede”.

If Russia is unwilling to make or offer any serious concessions then the peace negotiations are a fraud and nothing more than a demand for capitulation on the part of Russia. And the whole thing gives lie to the notion that Russia is actually seeking some sort of negotiated end to the war.

There is a serious argument that Russia (or at least Putin) doesn't want the war to end. War can be profitable. And war is the ultimate method for dictators to consolidate their power and authority.

One can make the same argument about Gaza. Namely that Netanyahu needs the war to continue in order to remain in power.

[Ken]

If Ukraine wants a blank check for US protection then they have to become a US client state. That includes installing whatever leader the U.S. wants, as opppsed to one who back talks like a disobedient child.

Nonsense.

Ukraine is no different from any of its neighbors such as Poland, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, in that they are seeking collective defense against an aggressive, expansionist, and warlike neighbor.

Is Finland a client state of the US because they joined NATO to obtain security guarantees against the aggressor to the east?

[JohnH]

If Ukraine wants a blank check for US protection then they have to become a US client state. That includes installing whatever leader the U.S. wants, as opppsed to one who back talks like a disobedient child.

Nonsense.

Ukraine is no different from any of its neighbors such as Poland, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, in that they are seeking collective defense against an aggressive, expansionist, and warlike neighbor.

Is Finland a client state of the US because they joined NATO to obtain security guarantees against the aggressor to the east?

Who said anything about nato?

[Ken]

If Ukraine wants a blank check for US protection then they have to become a US client state. That includes installing whatever leader the U.S. wants, as opppsed to one who back talks like a disobedient child.

Nonsense.

Ukraine is no different from any of its neighbors such as Poland, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, in that they are seeking collective defense against an aggressive, expansionist, and warlike neighbor.

Is Finland a client state of the US because they joined NATO to obtain security guarantees against the aggressor to the east?

Who said anything about nato?

Despite what you wrote, Ukraine isn't seeking any sort of blank check.

They are simply seeking the same mutual security guarantees that benefit all members of NATO.

[mike]

I have not heard either of what concessions are being asked of Russia. If the United States and Europe have not been willing to go all the way in order to stop Russia, what position do they have from which to demand concessions from Russia? I imagine that the summit in Alaska involved the United States asking Russia for concessions. I suppose we shall see quite soon what if anything Russia would be willing to “concede”.

If Russia is unwilling to make or offer any serious concessions then the peace negotiations are a fraud and nothing more than a demand for capitulation on the part of Russia. And the whole thing gives lie to the notion that Russia is actually seeking some sort of negotiated end to the war

The actual negotiations are secret, so we don't know whether they are making any concessions, and if so, what they might be. At this point, since they appear to have a slight edge on the battlefield these days, it would be something of a concession for them to simply stop the war and be content with the Ukrainian territory they currently hold. That seems like something reasonable to expect to happen. It would be a stretch to think that Russia would willingly relinquish much more than that in the negotiations, but I suppose it's possible.

There is a serious argument that Russia (or at least Putin) doesn't want the war to end. War can be profitable. And war is the ultimate method for dictators to consolidate their power and authority.

One can make the same argument about Gaza. Namely that Netanyahu needs the war to continue in order to remain in power.

If Putin simply wants the war to continue, he wouldn't have to be doing any of these meetings. And if it becomes clear that this is what he wants, Trump, the Europeans, and Zelenskyy will quickly tire of what they are investing in the peace talks, and then we're back to where we were. I predict that if this is the case, the West will ratchet up their military support for Ukraine with Trump's full support. I think Trump has shown signs of getting tired of Putin's games (not sure why he didn't get to that point quicker), and that this might be why Putin has been more willing to discuss peace than he was, say, a year ago. I actually think Putin might be a little afraid of what Trump might do when he gets his dander up.

[Soloist]

If this was a giant game of civilization, I would be pushing for peace only if I got something out of it, in Putin‘s position.

In Ukraine‘s position, I would be trying to get allies to declare war on Putin. I would be trying to make peace without trading territory.

The stuff isn’t rocket science.