Think Biblically Podcast: Economics and the Fertility Gap

[mike]

I thought this episode from the Think Biblically podcast was interesting when I listened to it the other day. Among the usual reasons discussed for low fertility rates these days was one that I hadn't thought of in these terms before, the idea that the child-bearing years for couples are a time when so many more options are available these days besides settling in and having a family. It's not just economics or health problems or other similar challenges; it's that people have so many things they can do in those years that are more appealing than having kids- education, making money, traveling, working a career, etc. In other words, while some people face real barriers to having a family, choosing not to have kids is often simply electing to take one path over another.

One interesting stat they mentioned which was really surprising to me is that births in India are now below population replacement rate. I didn't see that coming. Basically the only places in the world where populations are still growing due to births are in Africa, particularly sub-Saharan.

[mike]

The main angle of the interview was the economic perspective as the person being interviewed is an economist. It was interesting to think again about the economic ramifications of population decline, including the gradual loss of goods and services as demand declines. For example, community colleges or even niche foods. Countries will struggle to maintain a fully manned military. I read that the DC police force is about 800 officers short even though they have been offering a $25K sign-on bonus. It's back to school time and we're feeling a real crunch at work in some departments and it just feels like there aren't enough people out there for the jobs that are available. Obviously there are always other factors at play, but population decline brings real problems.

[barnhart]

I would like to listen to this if I get a chance. Just listening to your description I begin to suspect if might fall into a category I've seen before, idolizing marriage, family and children because of the effect they produce on society rather than honoring these things for the reasons laid out in the scriptures. Just producing lots of births or creating incentives for marriage without the deeper world view that values these things for the right reason is not enough for a good outcome, it might even produce a greater ill. For example the eastern European communists tried this and ended up with state orphanages full of abandoned children.

[mike]

I would like to listen to this if I get a chance. Just listening to your description I begin to suspect if might fall into a category I've seen before, idolizing marriage, family and children because of the effect they produce on society rather than honoring these things for the reasons laid out in the scriptures. Just producing lots of births or creating incentives for marriage without the deeper world view that values these things for the right reason is not enough for a good outcome, it might even produce a greater ill. For example the eastern European communists tried this and ended up with state orphanages full of abandoned children.

If that's what you hear when you listen to the podcast, I would be extremely surprised. I think you would be impressed by the thoughtfulness of the dialogue. What the interviewee said was pretty clearly based on what you describe as the deeper world view that values these things for the right reason.

The Christian view of marriage, family, and children is not the idolization of those things at all; rather, it is seeing the beauty and value of those things as God intended them to be. What I think we are potentially seeing both in the world at large and even to a lesser extent in the church is a decline in the value placed on those institutions, with predictable results in many areas of life including economics.

The economics aspect of the topic is peripheral to the central point for Christians, which is that God created us to have families. This particular discussion has the economics aspect because the interviewee is an economist, but I am pretty sure that she would not say that the main reason to have kids is to blow up the population. She is simply pointing out the very obvious effects that population decline will have on the economy at large.

We could accuse God of idolizing family and children for his creation of the world and his desire to have it populated by humans, couldn't we?

[mike]

For an example of other areas of life that are affected by declining populations, see church attendance.

100,000 U.S. Churches May Close by 2050. What Can Be Done?

There are reasons for this other than declining population, but it's clearly a factor. Among the Google AI results for the prompt "why are so many rural churches closing":

Many rural churches are closing due to a combination of factors, including declining membership, aging congregations, rising operating costs, and a shift in societal values. Additionally, some churches struggle to adapt to changing demographics and a lack of resources.

Here's a more detailed look:

Declining Membership:
Church membership in the U.S. has significantly decreased, particularly among younger generations, leading to smaller congregations.

Aging Congregations:
Rural churches often have a higher proportion of older members, and as they pass away, there are fewer younger members to replace them.

Rising Operating Costs:
Maintaining aging buildings, paying for utilities, insurance, and staff salaries can become unsustainable for smaller congregations with limited financial resources.

Shifting Demographics and Values:
Rural communities are experiencing changes in population, with some areas seeing a decline in population and others experiencing an influx of new residents with different cultural backgrounds and values.

Competition from Other Churches and Media:
Churches now compete with larger, more established churches and online religious content, making it harder to attract and retain members.

COVID-19 Pandemic:
The pandemic accelerated existing trends of declining attendance, and some churchgoers who stopped attending during lockdowns never returned.

In my area, a rural county where the population has been slowly declining for decades, there just aren't enough people to keep these old churches going anymore. Three of our Lutheran churches share the same administration and rotate among the three buildings just to keep the doors of each open for sentimental reasons. It's unsustainable.

[barnhart]

Depopulation is real in rural areas. But when it happens, I don't see a lot of value in keeping the doors of churches open when there are not enough congregants to sustain it.

Slightly off topic rant: Rural depopulation is one reason I think the anti immigration movement is so misguided. When I travel cross country through the decaying towns of the rural South, I always think this was optional, they could have embraced immigration.

[mike]

Depopulation is real in rural areas. But when it happens, I don't see a lot of value in keeping the doors of churches open when there are not enough congregants to sustain it.

Slightly off topic rant: Rural depopulation is one reason I think the anti immigration movement is so misguided. When I travel cross country through the decaying towns of the rural South, I always think this was optional, they could have embraced immigration.

In the parts of the South where there is economic opportunity for them, they seem to figure out a way to migrate, whether permanently or seasonally. In rural areas, we just don't see much migration, I assume because there just isn't that much economic opportunity. An exception is the 20+ Amish families that have migrated into the area in the last couple of years, but they seem to create their own opportunities.

[barnhart]

Depopulation is real in rural areas. But when it happens, I don't see a lot of value in keeping the doors of churches open when there are not enough congregants to sustain it.

Slightly off topic rant: Rural depopulation is one reason I think the anti immigration movement is so misguided. When I travel cross country through the decaying towns of the rural South, I always think this was optional, they could have embraced immigration.

In the parts of the South where there is economic opportunity for them, they seem to figure out a way to migrate, whether permanently or seasonally. In rural areas, we just don't see much migration, I assume because there just isn't that much economic opportunity. An exception is the 20+ Amish families that have migrated into the area in the last couple of years, but they seem to create their own opportunities.

Very true, but immigrants also create economic activity if you can get the ball rolling.

[JohnL]

Just my viewpoint.
Any kind of policy or promotion that is only for the purpose of economic benefits and doesn’t include an obedience to God doesn’t end well for anyone.
China is such a great example of mismanagement of policies. Their one-child program had all kinds of disastrous results for the nuclear family as well as the economy.
I live in the view point that speaks of the family as the foundation of all of society and a Biblically obedient family is a part of God’s best plans for people.

[barnhart]

After listening to the podcast, I agree with nearly everything. But I wouldn't say it was an exercise in thinking biblically, rather thinking logically and objectively. These are also good considerations but I think it needs to be considered through a biblical lense. Just creating birth is not enough for a healthy society.

I have a similar feeling with the quiver full, as many as possible teaching. I support having as many children as you can raise with hope and vision. In my worldview fertility is not an end in itself.

I wonder if falling fertility is a self correction device God has built in to human civilization so that societies who cannot reproduce hope and vision don't grow bigger. But that is probably a topic for another thread.