Poll: Age for Dating and Marriage

[mike]

In most jurisdictions in the US, building a house will likely cost more (perhaps much more) than buying an existing house. And both options are almost certainly unaffordable to newlywed teens unless they have trust funds or something.

And renting isn't often all that much better.

Another reason young people may as well not date at 16 or 17. The chances of them being able to afford to live independently are much better if they have a bit of a down payment on a house by the time they get married. That or parents who can help them with it. Depending on circumstances, by 21 or 22, a young man can have a sizeable down payment for a house, even if he spent a year or two in VS. Singles living with their parents have good earning power with the lowest living expenses they will ever have. It's a crucial time for people to manage their money well. That said, if a young person chooses to give his or her time to voluntary or low-pay service work, this isn't always the case.

I've seen some of my single employees (old order Mennonite) whose parents appear to be well-off and in the construction business, who got beautiful, brand new homes when they married. For them it's obviously a very long-term proposition and the young married couples immediately get to work building up their own small farm or business. I would guess their house payments are a substantial part of their income. Most people aren't willing to work as hard and long as some of those folks, and can't or won't devote that big a portion of their income to housing. These are young people who only go to school till age 15 or so, and who (for the guys) are probably earning near adult-level wages in construction or mechanical repair starting at that age. Girls typically work as well in retail, greenhouse, or other local jobs. By the time they marry at 20-22 they likely have a significant down payment on a house.

Around here the cheapest Zillow listing for a single family home in the entire metro area is this 3 br 1,288 sf home for $284,900 that is so trashed it looks like it will take another $50,000 just to make livable: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8910 ... 5615_zpid/

The cheapest move-in ready home is this 812 sf 2 bedroom listing for $329,000 https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2108 ... 4406_zpid/

So assuming the cheapest home is in the $330,000 range, what does that look like in terms of cost for a newly married teenage age couple?

20% down payment on a $330,000 home will be $66,000.
And at today's 30 year fixed rate of 6.6% a mortgage calculator tells me the monthly mortgage including tax and insurance will be $2,154.87 which comes out to $25,858 per year.

Assuming this young couple is really stretching and putting 50% of their gross income into their mortgage that means an annual salary of $51,716. Now I don't know what the economy is like in your area, but not very many unskilled 18 year-olds are landing jobs with an annual salary for $51,716 which is about $25/hr. And that is to afford what is literally the cheapest single family house in this entire metro area of about 500,000.

Rents aren't much better frankly. The average rent around here is $1,990 and it will be higher than that if you want a family-sized unit and not a studio. Especially if you want an apartment on a transit line so you don't need a car.

So no, I don't encourage teenagers to rush into marriage. If you want to leave home, find a cheap shared housing situation with several roommates and save your money and build your job skills or career for a couple years until you are ready to take on the cost and responsibility of marriage and a family.

Well, there's one of the reasons you won't find Old Order Mennonites living in Vancouver, Washington.

In the area where these folks live, you can find starter homes for half that. In my immediate area, there are quite a few homes for sale under $200,000, many could use work but would also be livable if you could live with outdated wall and floor coverings and such.

Now, it's very hard to find something decent to rent. An employee told me today that she is looking for an apartment and was shown a 1BR, 1BA apartment for $1,000/mo plus utilities. You used to be able to rent a whole house for that.

As for income, a young man working for a construction company can make $50K/year in my area, and more if he hustles and sticks with the company over time. $25/hour is very common, and not even just in the construction trades. We have a Walmart distribution center here that pays really well, lots of manufacturing and warehouses. I've lost a couple of 18-year old employees to a local steel building supply shop that appears to pay around $25/hour, and these guys are working long hours so are probably raking in some good overtime. For them, especially if there is any supplemental income, a $2,000/month mortgage (which would buy you a lot more house here than it would in your area) isn't out of reach at all. Not to mention trades that require a little more skill such as specialty auto repair, which probably can make a good tech $60-70K a year.

So considering rent costs and the lack of rental properties on the market, it makes a lot more sense for these folks to put their money into home ownership. Houses aren't getting any cheaper, and sure don't seem to be getting more plentiful.

In our county, the population has been slowly trending down for decades, but the number of households is steadily going up, as people are having fewer children, average household age is likely going up, and the number of single parent households is probably going up too.

[Ken]

Another reason young people may as well not date at 16 or 17. The chances of them being able to afford to live independently are much better if they have a bit of a down payment on a house by the time they get married. That or parents who can help them with it. Depending on circumstances, by 21 or 22, a young man can have a sizeable down payment for a house, even if he spent a year or two in VS. Singles living with their parents have good earning power with the lowest living expenses they will ever have. It's a crucial time for people to manage their money well. That said, if a young person chooses to give his or her time to voluntary or low-pay service work, this isn't always the case.

I've seen some of my single employees (old order Mennonite) whose parents appear to be well-off and in the construction business, who got beautiful, brand new homes when they married. For them it's obviously a very long-term proposition and the young married couples immediately get to work building up their own small farm or business. I would guess their house payments are a substantial part of their income. Most people aren't willing to work as hard and long as some of those folks, and can't or won't devote that big a portion of their income to housing. These are young people who only go to school till age 15 or so, and who (for the guys) are probably earning near adult-level wages in construction or mechanical repair starting at that age. Girls typically work as well in retail, greenhouse, or other local jobs. By the time they marry at 20-22 they likely have a significant down payment on a house.

Around here the cheapest Zillow listing for a single family home in the entire metro area is this 3 br 1,288 sf home for $284,900 that is so trashed it looks like it will take another $50,000 just to make livable: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8910 ... 5615_zpid/

The cheapest move-in ready home is this 812 sf 2 bedroom listing for $329,000 https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2108 ... 4406_zpid/

So assuming the cheapest home is in the $330,000 range, what does that look like in terms of cost for a newly married teenage age couple?

20% down payment on a $330,000 home will be $66,000.
And at today's 30 year fixed rate of 6.6% a mortgage calculator tells me the monthly mortgage including tax and insurance will be $2,154.87 which comes out to $25,858 per year.

Assuming this young couple is really stretching and putting 50% of their gross income into their mortgage that means an annual salary of $51,716. Now I don't know what the economy is like in your area, but not very many unskilled 18 year-olds are landing jobs with an annual salary for $51,716 which is about $25/hr. And that is to afford what is literally the cheapest single family house in this entire metro area of about 500,000.

Rents aren't much better frankly. The average rent around here is $1,990 and it will be higher than that if you want a family-sized unit and not a studio. Especially if you want an apartment on a transit line so you don't need a car.

So no, I don't encourage teenagers to rush into marriage. If you want to leave home, find a cheap shared housing situation with several roommates and save your money and build your job skills or career for a couple years until you are ready to take on the cost and responsibility of marriage and a family.

Well, there's one of the reasons you won't find Old Order Mennonites living in Vancouver, Washington.

In the area where these folks live, you can find starter homes for half that. In my immediate area, there are quite a few homes for sale under $200,000, many could use work but would also be livable if you could live with outdated wall and floor coverings and such.

Now, it's very hard to find something decent to rent. An employee told me today that she is looking for an apartment and was shown a 1BR, 1BA apartment for $1,000/mo plus utilities. You used to be able to rent a whole house for that.

As for income, a young man working for a construction company can make $50K/year in my area, and more if he hustles and sticks with the company over time. $25/hour is very common, and not even just in the construction trades. We have a Walmart distribution center here that pays really well, lots of manufacturing and warehouses. I've lost a couple of 18-year old employees to a local steel building supply shop that appears to pay around $25/hour, and these guys are working long hours so are probably raking in some good overtime. For them, especially if there is any supplemental income, a $2,000/month mortgage (which would buy you a lot more house here than it would in your area) isn't out of reach at all. Not to mention trades that require a little more skill such as specialty auto repair, which probably can make a good tech $60-70K a year.

So considering rent costs and the lack of rental properties on the market, it makes a lot more sense for these folks to put their money into home ownership. Houses aren't getting any cheaper, and sure don't seem to be getting more plentiful.

In our county, the population has been slowly trending down for decades, but the number of households is steadily going up, as people are having fewer children, average household age is likely going up, and the number of single parent households is probably going up too.

Those are west coast prices generally, not Vancouver specifically. I doubt prices are much different over in Central OR where RZehr lives. And there are various Menno communities scattered up and down the west coast.

I agree that young men can find decent jobs in the trades. But around here there is usually a couple of years of working your way up into the higher paying specialties. Not many 17 or 18 year-olds working as journeyman electricians or finish carpenters.

Of course if one is simply moving into the family business and has a family willing to front the high 5 figure sum it takes for a down payment that is a bit different. But then I don't think marriage should depend on generational family wealth. That doesn't feel very Christian to me.

[mike]

Those are west coast prices generally, not Vancouver specifically. I doubt prices are much different over in Central OR where RZehr lives. And there are various Menno communities scattered up and down the west coast.

I agree that young men can find decent jobs in the trades. But around here there is usually a couple of years of working your way up into the higher paying specialties. Not many 17 or 18 year-olds working as journeyman electricians or finish carpenters.

Of course if one is simply moving into the family business and has a family willing to front the high 5 figure sum it takes for a down payment that is a bit different. But then I don't think marriage should depend on generational family wealth. That doesn't feel very Christian to me.

The plain folks who live on the west coast with high real estate prices figure it out somehow, but it's tough for a lot of them from what I've heard. California in particular, depending on when you bought.

Rural western PA where I live is also a whole different story than eastern PA, basically becoming one big sprawling suburb in a lot of places, where prices are very likely to be near what you're seeing.

I just asked my son who works in auto body, a trade that takes a couple of years to really get proficient in, and the good techs are making 80K or higher, some as soon as 3-5 years in.

As far as moving into the family business, I think what often happens is not so much that some of these parents have lots of money to dump on their kids who are getting married, but that they help them get credit, and give them good job opportunities in the family business that earn enough money for them to make solid payments on their homes. By the time an older married couple in their sunset years with significant assets is ready to pass on their inheritance, their children are often well enough established themselves that they really don't need the money anyway. And you're right, marriage shouldn't depend on generational wealth.

It is very good for young married couples to learn how to be frugal and and have to work, and in some ways it might be better to marry young and learn to pinch pennies than to wait till you're 30 with big nest eggs saved up. However it's not like it's wrong either way, and people don't always have a choice.

[Ken]

Those are west coast prices generally, not Vancouver specifically. I doubt prices are much different over in Central OR where RZehr lives. And there are various Menno communities scattered up and down the west coast.

I agree that young men can find decent jobs in the trades. But around here there is usually a couple of years of working your way up into the higher paying specialties. Not many 17 or 18 year-olds working as journeyman electricians or finish carpenters.

Of course if one is simply moving into the family business and has a family willing to front the high 5 figure sum it takes for a down payment that is a bit different. But then I don't think marriage should depend on generational family wealth. That doesn't feel very Christian to me.

The plain folks who live on the west coast with high real estate prices figure it out somehow, but it's tough for a lot of them from what I've heard. California in particular, depending on when you bought.

Rural western PA where I live is also a whole different story than eastern PA, basically becoming one big sprawling suburb in a lot of places, where prices are very likely to be near what you're seeing.

I just asked my son who works in auto body, a trade that takes a couple of years to really get proficient in, and the good techs are making 80K or higher, some as soon as 3-5 years in.

As far as moving into the family business, I think what often happens is not so much that some of these parents have lots of money to dump on their kids who are getting married, but that they help them get credit, and give them good job opportunities in the family business that earn enough money for them to make solid payments on their homes. By the time an older married couple in their sunset years with significant assets is ready to pass on their inheritance, their children are often well enough established themselves that they really don't need the money anyway. And you're right, marriage shouldn't depend on generational wealth.

It is very good for young married couples to learn how to be frugal and and have to work, and in some ways it might be better to marry young and learn to pinch pennies than to wait till you're 30 with big nest eggs saved up. However it's not like it's wrong either way, and people don't always have a choice.

I agree with you entirely.

My point isn't that couples need to wait until their 30 to get married. Just that it is really hard for it to make sense to marry and try to build a household when you are 15, 16, 17 or even 18. Unless perhaps you are just walking into a family business or family farm and your future is already laid out for you. As a father of 3 girls, the youngest of whom is 19, I would say early 20s is the earliest I'd want to see any of them get married. My oldest is 26 and she is making noises about getting married. And that feels like about the right age for her.

I don't really have a fixed date for dating. Especially since so much of that is really more just group socializing these days. But I would say age 18 sounds about right for exclusive 1:1 dating. Younger than that they can do stuff together with groups or friends.

I don't really approve of groups (Menno or otherwise) who rush young kids into marriage as teens. I think marriage is definitely one thing you should take a bit slower and more deliberately and figure out who you are first. Statistically, people who get married very young, especially as teens tend to have higher divorce rates than those who wait a few years. I can't put my figure on the actual statistic right now, but I think age 23 is about when that levels out and from about ages 23-25 onwards marriages tend to last better than those who marry very young. I realize the Menno world might be a bit different. But one can also have unhappy marriages without them ending in divorce as well.

[mike]

My point isn't that couples need to wait until their 30 to get married. Just that it is really hard for it to make sense to marry and try to build a household when you are 15, 16, 17 or even 18. Unless perhaps you are just walking into a family business or family farm and your future is already laid out for you. As a father of 3 girls, the youngest of whom is 19, I would say early 20s is the earliest I'd want to see any of them get married. My oldest is 26 and she is making noises about getting married. And that feels like about the right age for her.

I don't really have a fixed date for dating. Especially since so much of that is really more just group socializing these days. But I would say age 18 sounds about right for exclusive 1:1 dating. Younger than that they can do stuff together with groups or friends.

I don't really approve of groups (Menno or otherwise) who rush young kids into marriage as teens. I think marriage is definitely one thing you should take a bit slower and more deliberately and figure out who you are first. Statistically, people who get married very young, especially as teens tend to have higher divorce rates than those who wait a few years. I can't put my figure on the actual statistic right now, but I think age 23 is about when that levels out and from about ages 23-25 onwards marriages tend to last better than those who marry very young. I realize the Menno world might be a bit different. But one can also have unhappy marriages without them ending in divorce as well.

Beautiful. I got married at 23.

Anyway, what 15, 16, 17, or 18-year old could be trusted with taking over a family business or family farm. No dad in his right mind would turn it over entirely to someone that young. Let him manage a bit of the business? Maybe. My oldest sons don't currently have interest in working in my business, and my next son is 13, and he has said a few things that make me think he could ultimately be interested, but I can hardly grasp how many years of training he will need to even begin to think of a management job, let alone ownership.

[JohnH]

My grandpa worked full time when he was 12 and was married by age 18 with his own house. This was during the Depression and there wasn't spare money to be living off of parents who were destitute anyway. My grandma's sister got married at age 14 and her husband wasn't much older and he actually built a house a few years later. That was considered normal back then.

Nowadays we have people in their 20s and 30s who complain housing is unaffordable and have no idea how to build a house. Something has definitely gone wrong.

In most jurisdictions in the US, building a house will likely cost more (perhaps much more) than buying an existing house. And both options are almost certainly unaffordable to newlywed teens unless they have trust funds or something.

And renting isn't often all that much better. Especially any place where good paying jobs are abundant.

Where is this place in the US where an unskilled teenager can support (house, clothe, transport, and feed) a family on a single income in 2025?

I think you missed my point. My mother’s uncle built a house with his own two hands, starting from the foundation up. That used to be a normal thing that newlywed teens were capable of doing.

The U.S. used to be full of places a “teenager” (back then they were called “adult”) could house, clothe, transport, and feed a family on a single income. (Notice I left “unskilled” out, because I consider a man - and that’s what he was - to be quite skilled if he can build a house.) Clothe? My grandma and her sisters knew how to sew, make clothes, and patch and darn things that got holes. Feed? They grew large kitchen gardens and despite the privations of the depression, did not run out of food.

As far as where you could do this now… my front yard? You can build anything you want provided it’s less than dwelling 4 units (or 3, I’m not sure) per building. (“Most jurisdictions” by land area have very few restrictions on building, plus the entire state of California.) Clothe? Sewing machines are often thrown away or $1 at auctions. Transport? My VW Beetle cost me $1,500. I drive it to work but we can also load the whole family up in it. Feed? Well, the same soil will grow the same gardens that grew in the 1930s.

When my grandparents got married, my grandpa was earning $1 a day on a boat dredging the Ohio River, or about $23 a day now, so approx. $2 an hour. He bought his house cash a few years later (since he didn’t like the idea of loans and didn’t trust banks after the Depression).

[JohnH]

And I don't believe kids under the age of 18 have the maturity and experience to independently navigate the adult world of work, housing, finance, child rearing, etc.

An open question is how is it that people at age 16 or 14 used to have the maturity and experience to independently manage things like working, taking care of children, taking care of their finances (including during the Depression), literally buying or building a house, and so on - things that now many in their 20s are unable to do.

I don't know...for years the age of adulthood in the USA was universally 21. You couldn't even vote, buy drinks, etc...until that age.

They only switched the voting age to 21 when they realized that they were drafting 18 year old boys to fight and die in a war that they couldn't even participate in deciding democratically.

To this day it makes no sense that one can "decide" to fight for their country and maybe die, but they "can't" decide to have a beer, at age 18.

Before Prohibition there wasn’t a drinking age in my state (or in most others), and after 1933, it was 18. It wasn’t raised to 21 until the 1980s because the federal government required it for highway funding. I believe most other states were similar. People at age 16 were considered fully formed adults and capable of working, supporting themselves, and raising children.

[Ernie]

Now I don't know what the economy is like in your area, but not very many unskilled 18 year-olds are landing jobs with an annual salary for $51,716 which is about $25/hr.

Well, there's one of the reasons you won't find Old Order Mennonites living in Vancouver, Washington.
As for income, a young man working for a construction company can make $50K/year in my area, and more if he hustles and sticks with the company over time. $25/hour is very common, and not even just in the construction trades.

Ken in the past has indicated that he thinks people will be leaving rural areas like Belleville, PA to move to the cities because there is no financial future in the rural areas.

Sounds like people might be moving from Vancouver, Washington to Belleville, PA in the near future.

[Ken]

Now I don't know what the economy is like in your area, but not very many unskilled 18 year-olds are landing jobs with an annual salary for $51,716 which is about $25/hr.

Well, there's one of the reasons you won't find Old Order Mennonites living in Vancouver, Washington.
As for income, a young man working for a construction company can make $50K/year in my area, and more if he hustles and sticks with the company over time. $25/hour is very common, and not even just in the construction trades.

Ken in the past has indicated that he thinks people will be leaving rural areas like Belleville, PA to move to the cities because there is no financial future in the rural areas.

Sounds like people might be moving from Vancouver, Washington to Belleville, PA in the near future.

People aren't leaving Vancouver. It is actually one of the fastest growing cities in Washington and Clark County is the fastest growing large county in the state. New housing is being built like crazy. Coincidentally I was just in Belleville last week for a family reunion. I didn't see any signs of growth whatsoever. In fact it looks to be shrinking. Looking at the census reports, it looks like the populations of both Belleville and Mifflin County actually peaked around 1960 and have been slowly declining since. It is also an aging community with a median age of 58.7 whereas Vancouver has a median age of 37.5

Regardless, I would recommend young people in either place to wait until their early 20s to get married.

[mike]

Well, there's one of the reasons you won't find Old Order Mennonites living in Vancouver, Washington.
As for income, a young man working for a construction company can make $50K/year in my area, and more if he hustles and sticks with the company over time. $25/hour is very common, and not even just in the construction trades.

Ken in the past has indicated that he thinks people will be leaving rural areas like Belleville, PA to move to the cities because there is no financial future in the rural areas.

Sounds like people might be moving from Vancouver, Washington to Belleville, PA in the near future.

People aren't leaving Vancouver. It is actually one of the fastest growing cities in Washington and Clark County is the fastest growing large county in the state. New housing is being built like crazy. Coincidentally I was just in Belleville last week for a family reunion. I didn't see any signs of growth whatsoever. In fact it looks to be shrinking. Looking at the census reports, it looks like the populations of both Belleville and Mifflin County actually peaked around 1960 and have been slowly declining since. It is also an aging community with a median age of 58.7 whereas Vancouver has a median age of 37.5

Regardless, I would recommend young people in either place to wait until their early 20s to get married.

I wonder what the difference is in home ownership rates between areas like Vancouver and rural Pennsylvania for the age brackets of 20-30 years old, and 30-40. Are all these young people who are apparently flocking to places like Vancouver more or less likely to own homes than those in rural areas?