Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Ken]

And Ukraine just destroyed about 34% of Russia’s bombers in this brilliant / crazy drone attack.

I'm not entirely sure a fleet of obsolete WWII-era propeller planes is that useful. (The 34% figure is also Ukrainian propaganda; who knows how many were actually destroyed, but it does point to the changing asymmetry of warfare now and how poorly Russia is defending its own territory.)

They were the platform that Russia was using to fire cruise missiles into Ukraine. In fact many of the ones destroyed were already loaded up with cruise missiles for the next strike on Ukrainian cities.

They don't have another easy way to launch those cruise missiles other than by air. That is what they are designed for. And they don't have the capability to build new bombers, at least not anytime soon. Those are Soviet era bombers and the facilities that built them are gone.

[JohnH]

Maybe Russia will decide that going to the negotiating table isn't such a bad idea after all.

[Ken]

And Ukraine just destroyed about 34% of Russia’s bombers in this brilliant / crazy drone attack.

I'm not entirely sure a fleet of obsolete WWII-era propeller planes is that useful. (The 34% figure is also Ukrainian propaganda; who knows how many were actually destroyed, but it does point to the changing asymmetry of warfare now and how poorly Russia is defending its own territory.)

Whatever they are, 34% of them is a lot. I don't look forward to seeing what Putin meant by telling Trump he needed to respond strongly to this attack.

Let's not forget this happened right after Ukraine's European allies gave them express permission to strike targets deep inside Russia. So are these allies going to step up and help defend Ukraine when Russia responds to the attack?

What is it that you think Russia is going to do that it isn't already doing? Russia is already throwing everything it has at Ukraine short of nuclear weapons. It's not like they have been holding anything back.

[Soloist]

I know this might be argued with, but Russia hasn’t actually used biological or chemical warfare.

We’ve used all the things they’ve used and still use.

So really they have biological, chemical warfare and nuclear weapons available that they have not used.

[mike]

I'm not entirely sure a fleet of obsolete WWII-era propeller planes is that useful. (The 34% figure is also Ukrainian propaganda; who knows how many were actually destroyed, but it does point to the changing asymmetry of warfare now and how poorly Russia is defending its own territory.)

Whatever they are, 34% of them is a lot. I don't look forward to seeing what Putin meant by telling Trump he needed to respond strongly to this attack.

Let's not forget this happened right after Ukraine's European allies gave them express permission to strike targets deep inside Russia. So are these allies going to step up and help defend Ukraine when Russia responds to the attack?

What is it that you think Russia is going to do that it isn't already doing? Russia is already throwing everything it has at Ukraine short of nuclear weapons.

Well, some Russian officials have brought that up. But conventional wisdom says that's really unlikely, and I'm thinking more like massive strikes against civilian centers causing mass casualties and terror. I know they already take occasional potshots at cities like Kiev but not on a large scale. Other than nukes, I don't know what else they could do against Ukraine's military except a lot more of what they're doing already. Maybe you're right, they have nothing else really.

[Ken]

I know this might be argued with, but Russia hasn’t actually used biological or chemical warfare.

We’ve used all the things they’ve used and still use.

So really they have biological, chemical warfare and nuclear weapons available that they have not used.

None of those would likely change the calculus of the war. But would instead just further isolate Russia and steel the resolve of western nations to keep up their sanctions and pressure. Although Russia has already been accused of using chemical weapons in this war: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/c ... vestigate/

[JohnH]

I know this might be argued with, but Russia hasn’t actually used biological or chemical warfare.

We’ve used all the things they’ve used and still use.

So really they have biological, chemical warfare and nuclear weapons available that they have not used.

None of those would likely change the calculus of the war. But would instead just further isolate Russia and steel the resolve of western nations to keep up their sanctions and pressure. Although Russia has already been accused of using chemical weapons in this war: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/c ... vestigate/

A bigger question is if what Ukraine is doing is going to isolate itself in this war; nobody is really going to want to be closely associated with Ukraine's recent actions, since nobody really wants to be responsible for getting into a hot war with Russia.

[Ken]

I know this might be argued with, but Russia hasn’t actually used biological or chemical warfare.

We’ve used all the things they’ve used and still use.

So really they have biological, chemical warfare and nuclear weapons available that they have not used.

None of those would likely change the calculus of the war. But would instead just further isolate Russia and steel the resolve of western nations to keep up their sanctions and pressure. Although Russia has already been accused of using chemical weapons in this war: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/c ... vestigate/

A bigger question is if what Ukraine is doing is going to isolate itself in this war; nobody is really going to want to be closely associated with Ukraine's recent actions, since nobody really wants to be responsible for getting into a hot war with Russia.

What are you talking about?

Ukraine isn't doing a single thing that Russia isn't already doing 10-times over.

And no country in Europe that is watching this war play out is going to say "Hmmm, maybe we should be siding with Russia, not Ukraine. Russia looks like the kind of partner we can trust."

This is the same Russia that is using its ships to try and destroy submarine data cables in the Baltic and meddle in European elections.

[Szdfan]

And Ukraine just destroyed about 34% of Russia’s bombers in this brilliant / crazy drone attack.

I'm not entirely sure a fleet of obsolete WWII-era propeller planes is that useful. (The 34% figure is also Ukrainian propaganda; who knows how many were actually destroyed, but it does point to the changing asymmetry of warfare now and how poorly Russia is defending its own territory.)

They were the platform that Russia was using to fire cruise missiles into Ukraine. In fact many of the ones destroyed were already loaded up with cruise missiles for the next strike on Ukrainian cities.

They don't have another easy way to launch those cruise missiles other than by air. That is what they are designed for. And they don't have the capability to build new bombers, at least not anytime soon. Those are Soviet era bombers and the facilities that built them are gone.

None of these planes were “WWII-era prop planes.”

They were Tu-95s and Tu-22Ms, which are both Cold War-era Soviet bombers. The Tu-95 entered service in the 1950s and the Tu-22M in the 1970s. Yeah, that makes them old, but not WWII-era, and certainly not obsolete in the way John implies.

The Tu-95 is still a critical cruise missile platform, just like the U.S. B-52, which also dates from the 1950s and is expected to fly into the 2050s. These bombers are kept in service for decades because they work and because modernizing proven airframes is more cost-effective than building entirely new platforms from scratch.

In this case, Ukraine didn’t just destroy “old planes.” They disabled key launch systems for Russia’s long-range strike capabilities.

This took me five minutes to verify. I’m not sure why John is just winging it here.

[JohnH]

None of those would likely change the calculus of the war. But would instead just further isolate Russia and steel the resolve of western nations to keep up their sanctions and pressure. Although Russia has already been accused of using chemical weapons in this war: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/c ... vestigate/

A bigger question is if what Ukraine is doing is going to isolate itself in this war; nobody is really going to want to be closely associated with Ukraine's recent actions, since nobody really wants to be responsible for getting into a hot war with Russia.

What are you talking about?

Ukraine isn't doing a single thing that Russia isn't already doing 10-times over.

And no country in Europe that is watching this war play out is going to say "Hmmm, maybe we should be siding with Russia, not Ukraine. Russia looks like the kind of partner we can trust."

This is the same Russia that is using its ships to try and destroy submarine data cables in the Baltic and meddle in European elections.

Trying to destroy part of a nuclear power’s nuclear capabilities is a rather serious escalation. Can’t you see that?