mike wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 1:34 pm
At this point, we have now had two successive US presidents who gave some level of support to Ukraine, but not enough by far to help them regain lost territory or in any sense win the war, and whose response continues to embolden Russia to act as the aggressor nation against the Ukraine.
You have got to wonder what the end of this will look like.
From a purely self-interested realpolitik perspective, letting Russia endlessly bleed itself and degrade its economy in Ukraine could actually be a rational policy. From a purely hard rational point of view, Russia is really more of an economic competitor to the US rather than partner. Russia's main exports are grain, oil/gas and industrial chemicals like fertilizer. Which are also major US exports. Unlike China or the EU, they produce virtually nothing that the US really wants. So a diminished Russia under trade sanctions actually benefits the US economically, and probably more so than any other country. For example, US exports of LNG to the EU have skyrocketed since the war started. And would be in jeopardy if there is a total settlement that rolled back all the sanctions. Same for grain exports. Of course Trump is putting all that in jeopardy with his pointless tariffs and trade wars.
I would expect it to finally end in a cold armistice like N/S Korea or E/W Germany. But I don't have any greater insight than anyone else. Any sort of more amicable relationship will probably require a new generation of leadership in Russia.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Ken wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 1:45 pm
I would expect it to finally end in a cold armistice like N/S Korea or E/W Germany. But I don't have any greater insight than anyone else. Any sort of more amicable relationship will probably require a new generation of leadership in Russia.
Currently Russia’s demands for just a ceasefire (i.e. Ukraine not only recognize territory that Russia occupies, but also hand over the rest of these provinces) are so far removed from what Ukraine could realistically agree to, that I don’t think they are serious about ending the war.
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"Woe to those who make unjust laws, to those who issue oppressive decrees, to deprive the poor of their rights and withhold justice from the oppressed of my people, making widows their prey and robbing the fatherless."
Ken wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 1:45 pm
I would expect it to finally end in a cold armistice like N/S Korea or E/W Germany. But I don't have any greater insight than anyone else. Any sort of more amicable relationship will probably require a new generation of leadership in Russia.
Currently Russia’s demands for just a ceasefire (i.e. Ukraine not only recognize territory that Russia occupies, but also hand over the rest of these provinces) are so far removed from what Ukraine could realistically agree to, that I don’t think they are serious about ending the war.
The Russian demands go WAY beyond just the territorial claims to those provinces.
They are also demanding that the rest of Ukraine be an isolated rump state (no EU membership or military alliances with the west) and caps on western military aid to Ukraine. And basically become a Russian puppet again. Which is an obvious non-starter for Ukraine. They are not going to agree to unilaterally disarm with Russia on their doorstep. Nor are they going to agree to become a Russian puppet or a carbon copy of Belarus.
0 x
A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Ken wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 1:45 pm
From a purely self-interested realpolitik perspective, letting Russia endlessly bleed itself and degrade its economy in Ukraine could actually be a rational policy.
Russia is doing well as a result of this war. It's economy is booming.
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A wee little man can’t say, I’m sorry. A big man owns his mistakes and apologizes.
A wee little man trusts himself and his own discernment. A big man is humble enough to know that he needs the counsel and input of others.
Ken wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 1:45 pm
I would expect it to finally end in a cold armistice like N/S Korea or E/W Germany. But I don't have any greater insight than anyone else. Any sort of more amicable relationship will probably require a new generation of leadership in Russia.
Currently Russia’s demands for just a ceasefire (i.e. Ukraine not only recognize territory that Russia occupies, but also hand over the rest of these provinces) are so far removed from what Ukraine could realistically agree to, that I don’t think they are serious about ending the war.
The Russian demands go WAY beyond just the territorial claims to those provinces.
They are also demanding that the rest of Ukraine be an isolated rump state (no EU membership or military alliances with the west) and caps on western military aid to Ukraine. And basically become a Russian puppet again. Which is an obvious non-starter for Ukraine. They are not going to agree to unilaterally disarm with Russia on their doorstep. Nor are they going to agree to become a Russian puppet or a carbon copy of Belarus.
And Russia is demanding Ukraine hold elections as part of a peace deal. For Ukraine to agree to this is basically conceding puppet status.
Ken wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 1:45 pm
From a purely self-interested realpolitik perspective, letting Russia endlessly bleed itself and degrade its economy in Ukraine could actually be a rational policy.
Russia is doing well as a result of this war. It's economy is booming.
Not really. They are pumping all of their oil money into arms for Ukraine. But otherwise not building anything productive or sustainable. Basically the same thing the old USSR did until it collapsed.
0 x
A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Ken wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 1:45 pm
From a purely self-interested realpolitik perspective, letting Russia endlessly bleed itself and degrade its economy in Ukraine could actually be a rational policy.
Russia is doing well as a result of this war. It's economy is booming.
"Woe to those who make unjust laws, to those who issue oppressive decrees, to deprive the poor of their rights and withhold justice from the oppressed of my people, making widows their prey and robbing the fatherless."
And Ukraine just destroyed about 34% of Russia’s bombers in this brilliant / crazy drone attack.
0 x
"Woe to those who make unjust laws, to those who issue oppressive decrees, to deprive the poor of their rights and withhold justice from the oppressed of my people, making widows their prey and robbing the fatherless."
Szdfan wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 4:09 pm
And Ukraine just destroyed about 34% of Russia’s bombers in this brilliant / crazy drone attack.
I'm not entirely sure a fleet of obsolete WWII-era propeller planes is that useful. (The 34% figure is also Ukrainian propaganda; who knows how many were actually destroyed, but it does point to the changing asymmetry of warfare now and how poorly Russia is defending its own territory.)
Szdfan wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 4:09 pm
And Ukraine just destroyed about 34% of Russia’s bombers in this brilliant / crazy drone attack.
I'm not entirely sure a fleet of obsolete WWII-era propeller planes is that useful. (The 34% figure is also Ukrainian propaganda; who knows how many were actually destroyed, but it does point to the changing asymmetry of warfare now and how poorly Russia is defending its own territory.)
Whatever they are, 34% of them is a lot. I don't look forward to seeing what Putin meant by telling Trump he needed to respond strongly to this attack.
