Crime is going down, fear is going up

[Bootstrap]

Crime rates continue to go down.



But people think crime rates are going up. Not so much where they live, where they have direct experience, but especially in the places they have no direct experience.



Why? How should we think of this as Christians?

[Judas Maccabeus]

Crime rates continue to go down.



But people think crime rates are going up. Not so much where they live, where they have direct experience, but especially in the places they have no direct experience.



Why? How should we think of this as Christians?

Are the counting juveniles? They are most of the property crime and half the assaults, at least where I am from. Since they cannot be held accountable below a certain age, no crime has been committed.

[mike]

I suggest that one reason for the rise in fear is the unprecedented digital documentation and the resulting proliferation of information regarding the crimes that are committed. The number of doorbell and security cameras, police body cameras, and bystanders with mobile phones are completely without precedent in history. And so crimes are heavily reported with far more evidence shared both by the media and the public than they used to be.

I'm going to blame another thing, and that is the popularity of true crime shows on TV. Over 57% of Americans watch crime shows. Crime on traditional TV has a huge following. New media such as streaming platforms and podcasts show it as well, 2 of the top 10 podcasts are about crime. People are riveted to this stuff, and it has an impact.

That's not even counting fictional crime in movies, which would drive the total of Americans who are frequently exposed to crime via their entertainment media way past the 57% in my opinion.

More than ever, we are aware of crime, even if crime is going down. And heightened awareness can lend to increasing fear.

[Bootstrap]

Are they counting juveniles? They are most of the property crime and half the assaults, at least where I am from. Since they cannot be held accountable below a certain age, no crime has been committed.

Yes, both the FBI and BJS data include crimes committed by juveniles. These are the two main sources for this kind of statistics.

FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) data is based on arrests, and it includes juveniles (under 18). So if a juvenile is arrested for a crime, it's counted in the stats.

BJS National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is based on surveys of victims, not arrests. It includes crimes committed by juveniles (or anyone else), even if no one was caught or prosecuted.

So yes, juveniles are counted. In both systems.

[Ken]

Crime rates continue to go down.

But people think crime rates are going up. Not so much where they live, where they have direct experience, but especially in the places they have no direct experience.

Why? How should we think of this as Christians?

The WHY is probably mostly due to 24/7 news channels, social media, and the relentless politicization of crime. Which we see happening here on this forum as well.

Prior to social media and 24/7 news channels if there was some random crime event in some distant city you would never hear about it unless it was some sort of spectacular and gruesome news story worthy of the national news. Now the most stupid minor stuff (like a Starbucks closing) gets circulated around social media like wildfire.

Rural folks rubbernecking about crime in distant cities is basically the flip side of urban folks rubbernecking about the violent inbred hicks clutching to their guns and religion in the rural parts of the country. It is all just stereotyping to confirm prior assumptions and biases.

As Christians we probably shouldn't participate in the slandering and stereotyping of others. Especially when the sole purpose is politicization for partisan gain.

[R7ehr]

What if the official numbers are incorrect by underreporting by both the victims and the police? I think we all understand that political pressure can be brought to bear on police departments by both recognizing crimes, by redefining meanings, and making reporting a crime difficult - or easier.
Then it would be possible that the people actually are experiencing crime that isn’t being recorded.

[Bootstrap]

I suggest that one reason for the rise in fear is the unprecedented digital documentation and the resulting proliferation of information regarding the crimes that are committed. The number of doorbell and security cameras, police body cameras, and bystanders with mobile phones are completely without precedent in history. And so crimes are heavily reported with far more evidence shared both by the media and the public than they used to be.

I'm going to blame another thing, and that is the popularity of true crime shows on TV. Over 57% of Americans watch crime shows. Crime on traditional TV has a huge following. New media such as streaming platforms and podcasts show it as well, 2 of the top 10 podcasts are about crime. People are riveted to this stuff, and it has an impact.

That's not even counting fictional crime in movies, which would drive the total of Americans who are frequently exposed to crime via their entertainment media way past the 57% in my opinion.

More than ever, we are aware of crime, even if crime is going down. And heightened awareness can lend to increasing fear.

I think that's true. Doomscrolling and endless crime TV seem to be emotionally engaging, people keep coming back for more. Lust and doomscrolling seem to drive a lot of the Internet.

Whatever is salient and vivid really captures the imagination. People consistently think shark attacks and plane crashes are much more frequent than they are, and they underestimate the risk of the top 10 causes of death - the ones that are most likely to actually kill you. And the same seems to be true of crime.

I don't think this kind of doomscrolling and viral fear is compatible with Philippians 4:

Rejoice in the Lord always. I will say it again: Rejoice! Let your gentleness be evident to all. The Lord is near. Do not be anxious about anything, but in every situation, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God. And the peace of God, which transcends all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.

Finally, brothers and sisters, whatever is true, whatever is noble, whatever is right, whatever is pure, whatever is lovely, whatever is admirable—if anything is excellent or praiseworthy—think about such things. Whatever you have learned or received or heard from me, or seen in me—put it into practice. And the God of peace will be with you.

These are the things we should think about and talk about most. They are not the things that dominate the Internet, media, or social media.

[Ken]

What if the official numbers are incorrect by underreporting by both the victims and the police? I think we all understand that political pressure can be brought to bear on police departments by both recognizing crimes, by redefining meanings, and making reporting a crime difficult - or easier.
Then it would be possible that the people actually are experiencing crime that isn’t being recorded.

That is the whole point of the standardization of crime reporting at the national level by the FBI which has been a long transition at some police departments.

But one crime for which under-reporting is not really an issue is murder. It is kind of hard to under-report or simply not report murder. This chart ends in 2023 but the 2024 numbers are down an additional 16% in 2024 relative to 2023 so the post-pandemic drop on this chart continues.

[mike]

I suggest that one reason for the rise in fear is the unprecedented digital documentation and the resulting proliferation of information regarding the crimes that are committed. The number of doorbell and security cameras, police body cameras, and bystanders with mobile phones are completely without precedent in history. And so crimes are heavily reported with far more evidence shared both by the media and the public than they used to be.

I'm going to blame another thing, and that is the popularity of true crime shows on TV. Over 57% of Americans watch crime shows. Crime on traditional TV has a huge following. New media such as streaming platforms and podcasts show it as well, 2 of the top 10 podcasts are about crime. People are riveted to this stuff, and it has an impact.

That's not even counting fictional crime in movies, which would drive the total of Americans who are frequently exposed to crime via their entertainment media way past the 57% in my opinion.

More than ever, we are aware of crime, even if crime is going down. And heightened awareness can lend to increasing fear.

I think that's true. Doomscrolling and endless crime TV seem to be emotionally engaging, people keep coming back for more. Lust and doomscrolling seem to drive a lot of the Internet.

Whatever is salient and vivid really captures the imagination. People consistently think shark attacks and plane crashes are much more frequent than they are, and they underestimate the risk of the top 10 causes of death - the ones that are most likely to actually kill you. And the same seems to be true of crime.

I'll admit, I listen to Dateline sometimes. It sickening what people will do. I am intrigued with how the producers craft the story to scintillate and create tension and yeah, probably fear. At the same time, many of the stories are about people who were not just in the wrong place at the wrong time, but were in situations where crimes are often likely to occur, such as love affairs or drug deals.

[Bootstrap]

What if the official numbers are incorrect by underreporting by both the victims and the police? I think we all understand that political pressure can be brought to bear on police departments by both recognizing crimes, by redefining meanings, and making reporting a crime difficult - or easier.
Then it would be possible that the people actually are experiencing crime that isn’t being recorded.

This is a real issue - particularly with the FBI statistics. For instance, wives are unlikely to report domestic report, so it is less likely to show up on the FBI report, which is based on arrests.

But this is also precisely the problem that the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) was designed to solve. That's the main report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). It is a large, ongoing survey of U.S. households that asks people directly whether they’ve been victims of crime—even if they never reported it to the police.

They do this survey to capture the kinds of crimes that slip through the cracks in police records due to underreporting, political pressure, or differing definitions. For example, it often shows higher rates of sexual assault and domestic violence than police data, because many victims in those cases never file a report.

I think it's helpful to look at both reports together. And in general, I think statistics like these are a lot LESS vulnerable to political influence than media or social media. By design.