Your best friend's mom ...

[Ken]

This is some interesting findings. Some counter to all other research I have seen. From some other research, GenZ are actually more committed and more prone to stay in long term relationships as a whole. It is not just college, but societal things that are turning them to more conservative and traditional connections. This is seen from the increase of GenZ who are joining and attending Catholic Churches. Less are actually seeing higher education.

As a teacher I think this is true.

GenZ kids these days are a whole lot better on a whole bunch of metrics than my generation was in the late 70s and early 80s.

There are all kinds of theories and guesses as to why that is the case. From leaded gasoline to economics to AIDs.

Personally I think economics does have something to do with it. When I was in HS way back in the late 70s and early 80s your average kid could blow off high school knowing that solid good paying jobs were waiting for him. In Oregon this meant logging, log truck driving, lumber and paper mill jobs, etc. These days that is very much not the case. And most of the good paying jobs require some level of education past high school. At least trade school of some sort. Kids have absorbed that. States have also been pounding the college education drum for decades going all the way back to Reagan-era education reforms that were amplified by Bush. There is also a hunger for social interaction and participation.

[JohnH]

My experience with college-educated folk is the opposite. They are seriously burdened with student loans, which makes maintaining a middle-class lifestyle much more difficult.

Most people these days don't meet and marry their spouse at age 18-21, which is when you go to college. That might have worked back in the 1960s to get one's Mr.S degree, but it doesn't work like that today, particularly with college educated people. They aren't partnering up for life at age 19.

There are other ways to meet marriageable people. Rather obviously, Amish and other plain people seem to have figured it out. The fact they can do it means it is possible for other people too. There are home schooling circles where they hold get togethers of people age 25 or 30 and up. Many of these people meet a spouse there from a similar background, which can be a component of a successful marriage.

There are also other ways to enter the middle class than a college education.

[Ken]

My experience with college-educated folk is the opposite. They are seriously burdened with student loans, which makes maintaining a middle-class lifestyle much more difficult.

Most people these days don't meet and marry their spouse at age 18-21, which is when you go to college. That might have worked back in the 1960s to get one's Mr.S degree, but it doesn't work like that today, particularly with college educated people. They aren't partnering up for life at age 19.

There are other ways to meet marriageable people. Rather obviously, Amish and other plain people seem to have figured it out. The fact they can do it means it is possible for other people too. There are home schooling circles where they hold get togethers of people age 25 or 30 and up. Many of these people meet a spouse there from a similar background, which can be a component of a successful marriage.

There are also other ways to enter the middle class than a college education.

Most college educated people aren't particularly burdened by student loan debt. The median student loan burden in the US is about $20,000. Which is about half or less of the median cost of a new car and not particularly burdensome. In fact it is less than the annual wage gap between median college and non-college salaries. And it doesn't count the many who never take out student loans to begin with. The big loans are mostly by people who take them out for graduate studies which probably still pays off if you are doing medical school, MBA or advanced engineering. Not so much if you are getting a PhD in art history at a fancy private school or something like that. Or the small minority of college students who attend fancy out-of-state private colleges they can't afford rather than public school options in their own state or locality.

But in any event your anecdotal experiences don't negate the fact that college educated people are both more likely to get married and less likely to get divorced than the non-college educated. And they are also more likely to raise children in stable 2-parent households. Those statistics are real.

And yes, people can break into the middle class or get rich without going to college. On average it is a more difficult path today, but of course it happens. But that is also only one part of the equation. The other half of the equation is your pool of marriage prospects. And studies conclusively show that non-college educated women are getting married at dramatically lower rates today because the pool of non-college educated men in stable professions with good salaries and benefits and such are shrinking. Especially in economically-stagnant areas of the country. You can improve yourself all you want. But that isn't going to change the pool of prospects around you.

[JohnH]

Most college educated people aren't particularly burdened by student loan debt. The median student loan burden in the US is about $20,000. Which is about half or less of the median cost of a new car and not particularly burdensome. In fact it is less than the annual wage gap between median college and non-college salaries. And it doesn't count the many who never take out student loans to begin with. The big loans are mostly by people who take them out for graduate studies which probably still pays off if you are doing medical school, MBA or advanced engineering. Not so much if you are getting a PhD in art history at a fancy private school or something like that. Or the small minority of college students who attend fancy out-of-state private colleges they can't afford rather than public school options in their own state or locality.

But in any event your anecdotal experiences don't negate the fact that college educated people are both more likely to get married and less likely to get divorced than the non-college educated. And they are also more likely to raise children in stable 2-parent households. Those statistics are real.

And yes, people can break into the middle class or get rich without going to college. On average it is a more difficult path today, but of course it happens. But that is also only one part of the equation. The other half of the equation is your pool of marriage prospects. And studies conclusively show that non-college educated women are getting married at dramatically lower rates today because the pool of non-college educated men in stable professions with good salaries and benefits and such are shrinking. Especially in economically-stagnant areas of the country. You can improve yourself all you want. But that isn't going to change the pool of prospects around you.

Ken, I don't mean this in a cruel or unkind way, but do you actually know any people struggling with finances? Struggling to pay their bills? Even when they are in a not-stagnant area of the country, like where I am?

A statement like "most college educated people aren't particularly burdened by student loan debt" is particularly asinine, as this burden is mostly dealt with by young people, not the entire pool of college graduates, including my dad who paid his entire tuition by working summers in a steel mill. Those days are long gone. You say things like, "half or less the median cost of a new car and not particularly burdensome." In my world, I see people who are earning $60,000 a year, yet face difficulty making ends meet. Student loan payments for him and his wife (since they are both college educated) prove difficult when added to the rising costs of rent, and make home ownership feel impossible.

And studies conclusively show that non-college educated women are getting married at dramatically lower rates today because the pool of non-college educated men in stable professions with good salaries and benefits and such are shrinking.

I guess people who aren't Amish or Mennonites will simply go extinct, then, as according to you they just can't get married and make ends meet. I suppose this would solve the problem of hordes of unskilled migrants in America, since, according to your calculus, they won't be able to get married or stay married either... right?

[Ken]

Ken, I don't mean this in a cruel or unkind way, but do you actually know any people struggling with finances? Struggling to pay their bills? Even when they are in a not-stagnant area of the country, like where I am?

A statement like "most college educated people aren't particularly burdened by student loan debt" is particularly asinine, as this burden is mostly dealt with by young people, not the entire pool of college graduates, including my dad who paid his entire tuition by working summers in a steel mill. Those days are long gone. You say things like, "half or less the median cost of a new car and not particularly burdensome." In my world, I see people who are earning $60,000 a year, yet face difficulty making ends meet. Student loan payments for him and his wife (since they are both college educated) prove difficult when added to the rising costs of rent, and make home ownership feel impossible.

Yes I know plenty of people struggling with finances, including many in my own extended family. What do they mostly have in common? Lack of a college education. Or sometimes poor life choices. And yes, my facts are accurate and are about young people not all people. From the education data initiative: https://educationdata.org/student-loan- ... generation

36% of Gen Z aged 20 to 25 years had student loan debt in 2022. 31% of Millennials aged 20 to 25 years had student loan debt in 2006. Gen Z student borrowers who were 20 to 25 in 2022 had an average balance of $20,900 in student loan debt.

So 36% of Gen Z 20-somethings had any student debt at all, and half of them had debt under $20,900. That means only 18% of of Gen Z 20-somethings had student debt above $20,900. Which is a meaningful number but nowhere near "most". And for most of those 18% their loan debt isn't likely to be much more since the undergraduate loan limit is $31,000. Most of the people with really big loan balances either did things like go to medical school and paid for it all by loans since there is no loan cap for graduate studies. Or they unwisely defaulted when they were young and then let their debt snowball over time.

Your average college grad who goes to a local state school, borrows judiciously and works their way through college to get something useful like a nursing or engineering degree doesn't wind up with burdensome college debt. And doesn't have any trouble paying it unless they are living beyond their means, buying expensive cars, taking on stretch mortgages, etc. Where many get into trouble is they get obsessed with attending their "dream school" which might be some pricy out-of-state private school or even out-of-state public school. And no one ever tells them it is a foolish idea if they can't afford it.

Student loan debt forgiveness is actually one of the Biden Admin obsessions that I was somewhat skeptical about. I thought it was some portion of pandering. I think it was similar to Trump and tariffs. They are both things that the administrations could do themselves without going to Congress so they fixated on those ideas whether or not they were really good ideas or effective economic policy.

[JohnH]

Yes I know plenty of people struggling with finances, including many in my own extended family. What do they mostly have in common? Lack of a college education. Or sometimes poor life choices. And yes, my facts are accurate and are about young people not all people.

I question how much you are really in touch with younger people of Gen Z / Millennial age. Student loans are a huge problem for a lot of them. Even if they can get a good job, it has to be in a high cost metro area than where rent is expensive and housing is unaffordable.

36% of Gen Z aged 20 to 25 years had student loan debt in 2022. 31% of Millennials aged 20 to 25 years had student loan debt in 2006. Gen Z student borrowers who were 20 to 25 in 2022 had an average balance of $20,900 in student loan debt.

Yes, Ken, people who don't have college educations at all probably have no student loan debt...

Your average college grad who goes to a local state school, borrows judiciously and works their way through college to get something useful like a nursing or engineering degree doesn't wind up with burdensome college debt. And doesn't have any trouble paying it. Where people get into trouble is they get obsessed with attending their "dream school" which might be some pricy out-of-state private school or even out-of-state public school. And no one ever tells them it is a foolish idea if they can't afford it.

Ken, people who go to cheap state schools and only get degrees in nursing or engineering are a tiny fraction of college grads. (Most people would be unable to get a degree in nursing; it is requires significant aptitude. The same is true of engineering; it requires significant aptitude in math, which many (I would say the majority) of people do not have.

You said over and over that what leads to good life outcomes is a "college education"; did you actually mean that what leads to good life outcomes is:

#1, being high IQ / having enough aptitude to take and pass nursing or engineering in college and then to pass your nursing boards or get your P.E. certification...

#2, having significant impulse control and future time preference to take on no debt or to be "judicious",

#3, choosing a boring state school (and not moving to another state) to save on tuition...

then yes, people who come "out of the box" with a high IQ and aptitude towards nursing or engineering, and are good at making responsible choices - the kind that most 18 year olds don't make - are going to have better life outcomes.

[Robert]

Both my daughters are Millennials and both have student loan debt. Most of their friends have it as well. Both went back to college after leaving home.

West coast seems to be easier to find jobs with degrees. Other areas of the country, not so easy.

I think the low birth rate of the country is because people are more focused on careers then family.

[Ken]

I question how much you are really in touch with younger people of Gen Z / Millennial age. Student loans are a huge problem for a lot of them. Even if they can get a good job, it has to be in a high cost metro area than where rent is expensive and housing is unaffordable.

Let's look at some real numbers. The maximum in federal student loans that you can borrow for undergraduate college education is $31,000. The current student loan interest rates are about 6% so if you amortize that out for the standard 10-year payment period that comes to a monthly payment of $344.16. For the median 20-something graduate with a debt of $20,900 the monthly payment will be $232.03. That is a Starbucks habit for some people.

Are there young people out there with hundreds of thousands in student loans? Sure. But you have to pull at some strings to find out how they got there. And it is usually a saga involving multiple bad decisions like defaulting on loans for long periods of time and letting them snowball, or doing expensive graduate studies. Or else they are young doctors about to embark on lucrative medical careers.

[JohnH]

I question how much you are really in touch with younger people of Gen Z / Millennial age. Student loans are a huge problem for a lot of them. Even if they can get a good job, it has to be in a high cost metro area than where rent is expensive and housing is unaffordable.

Let's look at some real numbers. The maximum in federal student loans that you can borrow for undergraduate college education is $31,000. The current student loan interest rates are about 6% so if you amortize that out for the standard 10-year payment period that comes to a monthly payment of $344.16. For the median 20-something graduate with a debt of $20,900 the monthly payment will be $232.03. That is a Starbucks habit for some people.

Are there young people out there with hundreds of thousands in student loans? Sure. But you have to pull at some strings to find out how they got there. And it is usually a saga involving multiple bad decisions like defaulting on loans for long periods of time and letting them snowball, or doing expensive graduate studies. Or else they are young doctors about to embark on lucrative medical careers.

The people I've known with the worst student loan debt are the ones who pursued graduate degrees - that's how you hit numbers like $100,000 in debt. Isn't a "master's degree" being "more educated"? Yet the people I've known with them often struggled to find jobs. An acquaintance of mine was a librarian. She couldn't find work with a bachelors in library science, so she went and got a master's instead. The job she eventually found (a government job) didn't pay that well, but she was hoping to stay in it long enough to get loan forgiveness.

Do you think people who go into library science to become librarians are making bad choices? The reality is that doing so tends to involve a lot of student loan debt.

[ohio jones]

Let's look at some real numbers. The maximum in federal student loans that you can borrow for undergraduate college education is $31,000. The current student loan interest rates are about 6% so if you amortize that out for the standard 10-year payment period that comes to a monthly payment of $344.16. For the median 20-something graduate with a debt of $20,900 the monthly payment will be $232.03. That is a Starbucks habit for some people.

This thread went down this trail when someone claimed that college educated people were more likely to get married. To other college educated people. And they are more likely to have children.

So now we have a median 20-something married couple with children, both college graduates with median debt, with a total monthly student loan payment around $500. Since that's the median, half of them will have higher payments. And if they learned anything in college, they should be making more than the minimum payment to get out of debt sooner. And since they both have to work to pay their student loans and other debts (two cars and furniture at least, because if they have student loans they obviously didn't have enough savings to buy those), the kids have to go to day care, compounding the expense. Add in taxes, tithe, rent, utilities, gas, insurance, and a case of ramen noodles, and there's not much left.