Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Soloist]

Maybe Ukraine is thinking of a ceasefire and wants Russian territory to "trade" for Ukraine territory seized by Russia so the ceasefire borders can reflect the pre- invasion borders.

Maybe but they’d have to be crazy to think Putin would do that.

[temporal1]

Maybe Ukraine is thinking of a ceasefire and wants Russian territory to "trade" for Ukraine territory seized by Russia so the ceasefire borders can reflect the pre- invasion borders.

Maybe but they’d have to be crazy to think Putin would do that.

i don’t believe they’re crazy.
corrupt, ill-advised, with more money available to them than they know what to do with.

it just occurred to me.
if Ukraine were made the 51st state, billions could end, borders opened, immediate problems solved.

[Szdfan]

Maybe Ukraine is thinking of a ceasefire and wants Russian territory to "trade" for Ukraine territory seized by Russia so the ceasefire borders can reflect the pre- invasion borders.

I think there is a lot of truth to this. Russia wants to "trade land for peace" -- Ukraine gives up land to Russia in order to end the war. Ukraine may be attempting to pressure Russia to trade "land for land," which would put them on a much more equal footing. I think there is a lot of uncertainty about how much longer Ukraine can continue to defend itself. I've seen estimates that Russia can continue for another three years, it's doubtful that Ukraine can hold on for that long. On top of that, there's a lot of uncertainty about how long the US will support Ukraine, especially if Trump wins the presidency.

I agree that Ukraine is attempting to get a better negotiating position.

[temporal1]

Maybe Ukraine is thinking of a ceasefire and wants Russian territory to "trade" for Ukraine territory seized by Russia so the ceasefire borders can reflect the pre- invasion borders.

I think there is a lot of truth to this. Russia wants to "trade land for peace" -- Ukraine gives up land to Russia in order to end the war. Ukraine may be attempting to pressure Russia to trade "land for land," which would put them on a much more equal footing. I think there is a lot of uncertainty about how much longer Ukraine can continue to defend itself. I've seen estimates that Russia can continue for another three years, it's doubtful that Ukraine can hold on for that long. On top of that, there's a lot of uncertainty about how long the US will support Ukraine, especially if Trump wins the presidency.

I agree that Ukraine is attempting to get a better negotiating position.

If Ukraine were on its own, sure, could be.

(My guess is) Russia will interpret this as U.S. escalation ON RUSSIAN SOIL, and respond accordingly.
Not unlike Israel/U.S. is eyeing Iran wrt Hamas-Hezbollah-Gaza. $$$$

[barnhart]

Maybe Ukraine is thinking of a ceasefire and wants Russian territory to "trade" for Ukraine territory seized by Russia so the ceasefire borders can reflect the pre- invasion borders.

Maybe but they’d have to be crazy to think Putin would do that.

How different is it than Russia expecting Ukraine to yield their territory seized in the invasion?

[Ken]

Here is the thing.

When two neighboring countries go to war (or in this case, Russia launches a war by the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine) then borders cease to have meaning. There is no longer any recognized border between Russia and Ukraine, there is only “The Front”. Which moves back and forth and is constantly dynamic due to the fortunes of war.

If Russia was concerned about the sanctity of international borders they would not have invaded in the first place. And one of the topics of negotiation (among many) when the war finally ends and diplomacy resumes will be the restoration of borders. If Russia wanted to accelerate that process they could end their war today and start on diplomacy now.

[Soloist]

Maybe Ukraine is thinking of a ceasefire and wants Russian territory to "trade" for Ukraine territory seized by Russia so the ceasefire borders can reflect the pre- invasion borders.

Maybe but they’d have to be crazy to think Putin would do that.

How different is it than Russia expecting Ukraine to yield their territory seized in the invasion?

Its not.

Russia being the aggressor would have to "back down" and basically humiliate themselves to return territory they took during the "attack" the territory as far back as 2014 would likely be demanded as well.

Likewise Ukraine would have to "back down" in the face of the aggressor.

This is why war basically keeps going until one side knows there its hopeless. Ukraine still is holding out hope that the support will continue and even increase and they can hold out till pressure can force Russia to back down. Russia is likely not going to back down at all unless Ukraine can out them from the captured territory. If Russia is pushed back out of captured territory, Russia may decide to settle for a cease fire but Ukraine would be stupid to expect the peace to last.

Ukraine is really in a terrible spot, this is quite a gamble that I think will end up disastrous for them at some point. They have equipment but they are losing manpower...

[Ken]

Maybe but they’d have to be crazy to think Putin would do that.

How different is it than Russia expecting Ukraine to yield their territory seized in the invasion?

Its not.

Russia being the aggressor would have to "back down" and basically humiliate themselves to return territory they took during the "attack" the territory as far back as 2014 would likely be demanded as well.

Likewise Ukraine would have to "back down" in the face of the aggressor.

This is why war basically keeps going until one side knows there its hopeless. Ukraine still is holding out hope that the support will continue and even increase and they can hold out till pressure can force Russia to back down. Russia is likely not going to back down at all unless Ukraine can out them from the captured territory. If Russia is pushed back out of captured territory, Russia may decide to settle for a cease fire but Ukraine would be stupid to expect the peace to last.

Ukraine is really in a terrible spot, this is quite a gamble that I think will end up disastrous for them at some point. They have equipment but they are losing manpower...

I don’t think Ukraine is in quite as bad of a spot as some think.

This conflict won’t end when the combat ceases. It will end when relations again become normalized and Russia once again rejoins the international community. That will mean the unwinding of an endless and complex tangle of sanctions imposed by all the western nations and their Asian allies like Japan and Korea. And Ukraine will very much be in the drivers seat during that entire process. The US, for example, isn’t going to repeal international banking sanctions on Russia unless Ukraine gives the green light. Multiply that by a hundred different sanctions imposed by dozens of other countries. Russia isn’t going to want to live permanently behind some new iron curtain. They will want to rejoin the international order. And that will mean that Ukraine holds a lot of cards.

Even China isn’t likely to come down strongly on Russia’s side during any final negotiation. Because China will very much want to tap into the hundreds of billions of dollars of rebuilding contracts that will available when the war finally ends. And China is further going to want to expand into the rest of Central Europe to do things like build bullet trains in countries like Poland and sell EVs. That is where the real money will be. Overtly siding with Russia in some final settlement in Ukraine will jeopardize that larger objective.

[Ernie]

I guess we could retitle this thread to
Russian Invades Ukraine and then Ukraine invades Russia.

[Ernie]

Can anyone explain Ukraine's rational in sending drones at residential buildings near Moscow? How can this be in Ukraine's favor? This will result in much more infrastructure being bombed in Ukraine.

Wouldn't this attack convince ordinary Russians that Ukraine is indeed attempting to overthrow Russia and assert its western values into Russia?

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 1ddbdc32ef