I'm sure I'm forgetting plenty of additional examples. But I can't think of a single war of aggression in the 20th or 21st centuries that went well for the aggressor. Can you?
The only war that comes to mind that might be said to have went well for either party involved would be the Six-Day war between Israel and its neighbors, and even there I don't know enough about to say if it is accurate to say it went well for Israel.
I'm just not seeing any proof that a foundation of lies and deceit makes a war go more poorly for the aggressor.
A foundation of deceit and lies is necessary to justify a war that is not otherwise justifiable on the merits.
The 6 day war is kind of a different animal. Israel launched it claiming it was a defensive war after Egypt tried to blockade Israel by closing the Straits of Tiran. Which was not a lie, it was true. I'm not sure Israel premised the war on lies. Israel's neighbors really were seeking the destruction of Israel. Did that make the war justified? I dunno. That might be a stretch.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
I've been watching and reading news about the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk. I still have significant unanswered questions. I haven't heard from Dad since the attack -- either he doesn't want to or can't talk about it. Russia is reportedly blocking access to YouTube, one of the few remaining independent sources of news in Russia and there are reports of Russians being arrested for sharing information on Telegram and social media. Dad does have a VPN, so I'm not sure what's going on. I figure he'll let me know what he thinks when he's ready to.
So, a list of what I'm thinking --
1) I think it's extremely clear that the Russians were unprepared for the attack. Ukraine has reportedly pushed 20km into Russia (though exactly how far is fuzzy) Their border defense was completely inadequate, which is quite something considering that they've been at war with their neighbor for the past couple of years. I suspect that part of what drove this was arrogance -- that Ukraine wasn't going to attempt this.
2) It is extremely risky for the Ukrainians to launch a large-scale incursion into Russia and open up an additional front line. Things in Donbass are not going well and it's a huge risk to divert troops to somewhere else from the front line. I don't think that the Ukrainians can hold onto this territory in the long term, but right now, they're a lot more successful than expected. It's been six days and the Russians haven't stopped them yet. I blame Russian incompetence more than I credit Ukranian prowess. Obviously, the Ukrainians think the possible benefits outweigh the risk.
3) So why is Ukraine doing this? Possibilities --
a) Zelensky has stated that ordinary Russians need to feel the cost of the war. Putin has been successful at maintaining support for the war. While there are sanctions and McDonald's no longer has any restaurants in Russia, the elites in Moscow and St. Petersburg continue to live their lives as normal. The majority of soldiers fighting for Russia are not from the European Russia, but from its Asian republics. Russia is still recruiting convicts. It's the poor "disposable" people who are fighting this war. The Ukrainian invasion of Kursk brings the war closer to the Russians who support the war.
My Dad referred to the Ukraine as conducting a "suicidal defense" and should just give up and surrender to Russia. I think this invasion changes that perception. The Ukrainians are the underdogs in this war, but they are not helpless. This invasion signals that they are willing to do the unexpected to defend their country.
b) I saw video of evacuated Russians pleading for help from Putin. One woman called local officials "animals" (a huge insult in Russian) for running away instead of helping their constituency. I've seen others condemn the lies in state media. There's a huge gap between what state media reports and what is happening on the ground. Military bloggers (who are fanatical in their support of the war) are reporting a very different picture of what is happening and are critical of Russia's military leadership. The invasion undermines the trust that Russians put into Putin and the government.
c) One of the reasons given for the invasion is that the Ukrainians are trying to force Russia to divert the military from the Donbas. I'm not sure that's working. Russia's advantage is that they have many more resources to throw into the meat grinder, which is why they are trying to wait out a brutal war of attrition. We'll see if Russia diverts significant military resources to fight the Ukrainians in Kursk.
d) It's possible that Ukraine is hoping for a better bargaining position when this war finally starts coming to an end. Occupying Russian territory helps them with that.
e) Part of Putin's appeal is his image as a strong man who keeps Russia safe. Well, that image has just been seriously damaged. The invasion doesn't just humiliate Russia, it humiliates Putin personally.
f) Ukraine may also be going after infrastructure to hurt Russia. Ukraine currently occupies Sudzha, which is the feeder for the natural gas pipeline to Western Europe. Part of the pipeline goes through Ukraine and because war is weird, Russia has been paying Ukraine $2 Billion a year to allow gas to go through, even though they are at war. The current contract is up in 2025. Per Gasprom, the gas is still flowing. The Russians are also moving quickly to defend the Kursk nuclear power plant.
4) I don't know how much the US and the West knew about the invasion before it happened. The reporting I've seen says that the Ukrainians kept their plans close to their chests. I think it's also apparent that the West is going to allow Ukraine to violate their "red lines" about using their equipment in Russia itself.
Just some thoughts and musings as I'm processing this. Continue to pray for Ukraine and Russia and that a solution might be found.
I think I would tend to agree with most of your summations. Russia doesn’t seem to care a whole lot although it’s hard to actually find out what is truly going on. Ukraine has posted very little evidence to actually support their invasion and Russia of course, is not posting it either.
It does seem like they are more successful than anticipated and Russia is following the classic response if they’re not really doing anything, so why should I do anything?
Of course they probably should do more but so far they haven’t diverted anything significant.
Ukraine is probably going to end up going too far because the generals will be saying we need to fall back and the president won’t realize they’ve overextended. Mostly because it seems to be going so well. Ukraine could end up losing a great deal of troops and investment if they get cut off, which actually would follow classic Russian tactics. They’ve never cared enough if enemy invades and they end up encircling them at some point.
Soloist wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2024 3:15 pm
I think I would tend to agree with most of your summations. Russia doesn’t seem to care a whole lot although it’s hard to actually find out what is truly going on. Ukraine has posted very little evidence to actually support their invasion and Russia of course, is not posting it either.
It does seem like they are more successful than anticipated and Russia is following the classic response if they’re not really doing anything, so why should I do anything?
Of course they probably should do more but so far they haven’t diverted anything significant.
Ukraine is probably going to end up going too far because the generals will be saying we need to fall back and the president won’t realize they’ve overextended. Mostly because it seems to be going so well. Ukraine could end up losing a great deal of troops and investment if they get cut off, which actually would follow classic Russian tactics. They’ve never cared enough if enemy invades and they end up encircling them at some point.
I don't know if Russia's poor response is military genius or incompetence. I guess we'll find out.
I do think that the strength and preparedness of the Russian military was vastly overestimated in the past. This incursion, along with Prigozhin's little coup and the failure for Russia to take Ukraine quickly are signs that things in Russia are not as stable as people assume.
Szdfan wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2024 4:12 pm
I don't know if Russia's poor response is military genius or incompetence. I guess we'll find out.
I do think that the strength and preparedness of the Russian military was vastly overestimated in the past. This incursion, along with Prigozhin's little coup and the failure for Russia to take Ukraine quickly are signs that things in Russia are not as stable as people assume.
I'm guessing incompetence.
That being said, Russia has a long history of getting invaded and encircling the invaders.
Szdfan wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2024 4:12 pm
I don't know if Russia's poor response is military genius or incompetence. I guess we'll find out.
I do think that the strength and preparedness of the Russian military was vastly overestimated in the past. This incursion, along with Prigozhin's little coup and the failure for Russia to take Ukraine quickly are signs that things in Russia are not as stable as people assume.
I'm guessing incompetence.
That being said, Russia has a long history of getting invaded and encircling the invaders.
From what I have read, there is also pervasive corruption within the Russian military. Equipment depots that exist on paper on the map don’t exist in real life. Or they exist but the equipment has been stripped and is non-functional. Units that are supposed to be trained and ready are not. And so forth. Because Russian brass and oligarchs have been siphoning off enormous amount military dollars and shipping them to foreign banks rather that spend it on military preparedness. This all worked fine as long as Russia was tackling small foes like Georgia. Or meddling in other countries like Syria. But when they decided to tackle a major country that is a peer in terms of military it all got exposed.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Szdfan wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2024 4:12 pm
I don't know if Russia's poor response is military genius or incompetence. I guess we'll find out.
I do think that the strength and preparedness of the Russian military was vastly overestimated in the past. This incursion, along with Prigozhin's little coup and the failure for Russia to take Ukraine quickly are signs that things in Russia are not as stable as people assume.
I'm guessing incompetence.
That being said, Russia has a long history of getting invaded and encircling the invaders.
I don't disagree. Generally, it's a bad idea to invade Russia. I'm curious to see how this plays out.
[img] https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/def ... quality/85 ”As Ukrainian forces staged an incursion into western Russia, this house was damaged in the town of Sudzha.
The photo was released by the acting governor of Kursk region, Alexei Smirnov, on his Telegram channel on Tuesday.
Russian military officials say some 1,000 Ukrainian troops have entered Russia.
Acting governor of Kursk region Alexei Smirnov's Telegram channel/AP”
Who has enabled Ukraine, who planned it, what promises have been made?
“Biden admin announces another $125M in military assistance for Ukraine as fighting intensifies on Russian soil”
“Ukrainian forces have brought the war to Russian soil amid a fierce offensive” https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden- ... ssian-soil
[img] https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/def ... quality/85 ”As Ukrainian forces staged an incursion into western Russia, this house was damaged in the town of Sudzha.
The photo was released by the acting governor of Kursk region, Alexei Smirnov, on his Telegram channel on Tuesday.
Russian military officials say some 1,000 Ukrainian troops have entered Russia.
Acting governor of Kursk region Alexei Smirnov's Telegram channel/AP”
Who has enabled Ukraine, who planned it, what promises have been made?
“Biden admin announces another $125M in military assistance for Ukraine as fighting intensifies on Russian soil”
“Ukrainian forces have brought the war to Russian soil amid a fierce offensive” https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden- ... ssian-soil
I think there would be more sympathy for Russia if they weren't 900 days into a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, fighting a brutal war of attrition that includes bombing hospitals, obliterating the electrical grid, killing children hiding in the basement of an opera house, annexing territory and destroying cities like Mariupol. I don't think Russia can claim to be a victim because Ukraine is fighting back.
Szdfan wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2024 4:12 pm
I don't know if Russia's poor response is military genius or incompetence. I guess we'll find out.
I do think that the strength and preparedness of the Russian military was vastly overestimated in the past. This incursion, along with Prigozhin's little coup and the failure for Russia to take Ukraine quickly are signs that things in Russia are not as stable as people assume.
I'm guessing incompetence.
That being said, Russia has a long history of getting invaded and encircling the invaders.
From what I have read, there is also pervasive corruption within the Russian military. Equipment depots that exist on paper on the map don’t exist in real life. Or they exist but the equipment has been stripped and is non-functional. Units that are supposed to be trained and ready are not. And so forth. Because Russian brass and oligarchs have been siphoning off enormous amount military dollars and shipping them to foreign banks rather that spend it on military preparedness. This all worked fine as long as Russia was tackling small foes like Georgia. Or meddling in other countries like Syria. But when they decided to tackle a major country that is a peer in terms of military it all got exposed.
I had also read that early on in the war. I don't know what the situation is like now regarding corruption. I think the Russians have learned from some of their early mistakes, which is why the war is still going and they've had some success in eastern Ukraine. However, this time they did get caught with their pants down.