Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Josh]

You didn't answer my question.

Yes probably.

Although you will probably find very few examples in history where aggressive wars (as opposed to defensive wars) were started based on truth. I can't think of a single one off the top of my head. Which is exactly why they are less likely to start if based on the truth. The truth rarely if ever supports aggression. You need lies for that.

So then, the question is, how often do wars of aggression go the way the aggressor expects? 1/3 of the time? 1/4 of the time?

Because nearly every war of aggression that goes the way the aggressor expects is a war based on lies and deceit that goes as expected.

For the military industrial complex it goes quite well - they earn billions or trillions.

I’d say the wars of aggression go exactly as planned by their architects. For the wing of “conservatism” that promoted all this bloodshed, look no further than the National Review.

[temporal1]

P.296:

UKRAINE INVADES RUSSIA 2024

August 2024 / NPR / In a surprise attack, Ukraine sends a large force into western Russia
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/08/g-s1-159 ... nto-russia

[img] https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/def ... quality/85
”As Ukrainian forces staged an incursion into western Russia, this house was damaged in the town of Sudzha.
The photo was released by the acting governor of Kursk region, Alexei Smirnov, on his Telegram channel on Tuesday.
Russian military officials say some 1,000 Ukrainian troops have entered Russia.
Acting governor of Kursk region Alexei Smirnov's Telegram channel/AP”

Who has enabled Ukraine, who planned it, what promises have been made?

[Ken]

You didn't answer my question.

Yes probably.

Although you will probably find very few examples in history where aggressive wars (as opposed to defensive wars) were started based on truth. I can't think of a single one off the top of my head. Which is exactly why they are less likely to start if based on the truth. The truth rarely if ever supports aggression. You need lies for that.

So then, the question is, how often do wars of aggression go the way the aggressor expects? 1/3 of the time? 1/4 of the time?

Because nearly every war of aggression that goes the way the aggressor expects is a war based on lies and deceit that goes as expected.

You probably have to go back to the 19th Century to find wars of aggression that went well for the aggressor. Such as the Mexican-American War in which the US took California, Texas, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona, and parts of Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming.

In the 20th Century we have Germany launching WW1 which did not go well for Germany
We have Germany launching WW2 which again did not go go well for Germany
We have Japan launching the Pacific war which did not go well for Japan
We have the USSR launching the Afghanistan war which did not go well for them
We had North Korea launching the Korean war which did not go well for them but ended in a stalemate after China came to their rescue
We had Iraq launching the Gulf War which did not go well for Iraq
We had the US launching Vietnam and the 2nd Iraq war and the Afghan war, none of which went well for the US
China launched a war into Vietnam after the US left and that did not go well for China.
The Khmer Rouge launched a war of aggression against Vietnam and that did not go well for the Khmer Rouge
In 1980 Iraq launched a war of aggression against Iran and that did not go well for Iraq.
In the 60s and 70s, Pakistan launched several wars against India, none of which went well for Pakistan.
Since 1948 various Arab countries have launched various wars of aggression against Israel, none of which went well for them.
Russia has launched various small wars like their war in Georgia but with Ukraine they seem to have bitten off more than they can chew

I'm sure I'm forgetting plenty of additional examples. But I can't think of a single war of aggression in the 20th or 21st centuries that went well for the aggressor. Can you?

[Jazman]

Yes probably.

Although you will probably find very few examples in history where aggressive wars (as opposed to defensive wars) were started based on truth. I can't think of a single one off the top of my head. Which is exactly why they are less likely to start if based on the truth. The truth rarely if ever supports aggression. You need lies for that.

So then, the question is, how often do wars of aggression go the way the aggressor expects? 1/3 of the time? 1/4 of the time?

Because nearly every war of aggression that goes the way the aggressor expects is a war based on lies and deceit that goes as expected.

You probably have to go back to the 19th Century to find wars of aggression that went well for the aggressor. Such as the Mexican-American War in which the US took California, Texas, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona, and parts of Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming.

In the 20th Century we have Germany launching WW1 which did not go well for Germany
We have Germany launching WW2 which again did not go go well for Germany
We have Japan launching the Pacific war which did not go well for Japan
We have the USSR launching the Afghanistan war which did not go well for them
We had North Korea launching the Korean war which did not go well for them but ended in a stalemate after China came to their rescue
We had Iraq launching the Gulf War which did not go well for Iraq
We had the US launching Vietnam and the 2nd Iraq war and the Afghan war, none of which went well for the US
China launched a war into Vietnam after the US left and that did not go well for China.
The Khmer Rouge launched a war of aggression against Vietnam and that did not go well for the Khmer Rouge
In 1980 Iraq launched a war of aggression against Iran and that did not go well for Iraq.
In the 60s and 70s, Pakistan launched several wars against India, none of which went well for Pakistan.
Since 1948 various Arab countries have launched various wars of aggression against Israel, none of which went well for them.
Russia has launched various small wars like their war in Georgia but with Ukraine they seem to have bitten off more than they can chew

I'm sure I'm forgetting plenty of additional examples. But I can't think of a single war of aggression in the 20th or 21st centuries that went well for the aggressor. Can you?

Would Russia be able to point to Chechnya as a success? (therefore they believe Ukraine will be similar)

[Soloist]

I think it really depends on how we evaluate success for the aggressor. As a western power, we tend to have skewed views from the propaganda we’re presented.

[Josh]

The Russian Federation views Chechnya as a “success” as they aspire to be a multi-ethnic empire with globalist ambitions. They likewise are importing migrants from every former reach of the USSR by the busload. The Moscow subway is starting to look more like the Chordu Bazaar in Tajikistan.

Of course, globalists don’t usually care about their own people, so they don’t care about the skyrocketing cost of housing or increases in crime ethnic Russians are facing in Moscow and other cities because of this flood of migrants. All the government can focus on is how to get more bodies in the weapons factories, so they can keep this pointless war going which seems to just keep slaughtering ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians by the thousands - or millions.

Why a country gets globalist ambitions is an interesting study, often called “internationalism” as contrasted to “nationalism”, where a nation seeks to stay inside its own borders and not meddle in others’ affairs, and likewise seeks the best for its own people, instead of finding ways to replace them with a more compliant population.

[ken_sylvania]

Yes probably.

Although you will probably find very few examples in history where aggressive wars (as opposed to defensive wars) were started based on truth. I can't think of a single one off the top of my head. Which is exactly why they are less likely to start if based on the truth. The truth rarely if ever supports aggression. You need lies for that.

So then, the question is, how often do wars of aggression go the way the aggressor expects? 1/3 of the time? 1/4 of the time?

Because nearly every war of aggression that goes the way the aggressor expects is a war based on lies and deceit that goes as expected.

You probably have to go back to the 19th Century to find wars of aggression that went well for the aggressor. Such as the Mexican-American War in which the US took California, Texas, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona, and parts of Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming.

In the 20th Century we have Germany launching WW1 which did not go well for Germany
We have Germany launching WW2 which again did not go go well for Germany
We have Japan launching the Pacific war which did not go well for Japan
We have the USSR launching the Afghanistan war which did not go well for them
We had North Korea launching the Korean war which did not go well for them but ended in a stalemate after China came to their rescue
We had Iraq launching the Gulf War which did not go well for Iraq
We had the US launching Vietnam and the 2nd Iraq war and the Afghan war, none of which went well for the US
China launched a war into Vietnam after the US left and that did not go well for China.
The Khmer Rouge launched a war of aggression against Vietnam and that did not go well for the Khmer Rouge
In 1980 Iraq launched a war of aggression against Iran and that did not go well for Iraq.
In the 60s and 70s, Pakistan launched several wars against India, none of which went well for Pakistan.
Since 1948 various Arab countries have launched various wars of aggression against Israel, none of which went well for them.
Russia has launched various small wars like their war in Georgia but with Ukraine they seem to have bitten off more than they can chew

I'm sure I'm forgetting plenty of additional examples. But I can't think of a single war of aggression in the 20th or 21st centuries that went well for the aggressor. Can you?

The only war that comes to mind that might be said to have went well for either party involved would be the Six-Day war between Israel and its neighbors, and even there I don't know enough about to say if it is accurate to say it went well for Israel.

I'm just not seeing any proof that a foundation of lies and deceit makes a war go more poorly for the aggressor.

[Soloist]

As near as I can tell, Ukrainians have made less than 7 miles into Russian held territory.
It’s unclear if that area is fortified or not it seems like there’s been no fighting in that region on either side since the initial invasion.

It’s unclear at this point if this was anything more then some troops crossing the border, taking some photos apparently at a grocery store.
So it’s really not clear if they actually even fought any opposition on the invasion.
This really isn’t much of a superior battle strategy, but it is definitely embarrassing to the Russians.

[Neto]

As near as I can tell, Ukrainians have made less than 7 miles into Russian held territory.
It’s unclear if that area is fortified or not it seems like there’s been no fighting in that region on either side since the initial invasion.

It’s unclear at this point if this was anything more then some troops crossing the border, taking some photos apparently at a grocery store.
So it’s really not clear if they actually even fought any opposition on the invasion.
This really isn’t much of a superior battle strategy, but it is definitely embarrassing to the Russians.

Military casualties are being reported, so they must have encountered some resistance.

From what I've read on the BBC, there are apparently some military supply-line staging areas there, and destroying those facilities would help diminish the death rate on the front line areas. (Could of course be false "info" as well. Who knows.)

[Soloist]

Military casualties are being reported, so they must have encountered some resistance.

From what I've read on the BBC, there are apparently some military supply-line staging areas there, and destroying those facilities would help diminish the death rate on the front line areas. (Could of course be false "info" as well. Who knows.)

It’s hard to tell.

From what I understand the casualties are coming from missiles the Russians are firing on the Ukrainian vehicles.
I’ve seen invasion numbers ranging from 1k to 10k. Likely it will be days before we have a clearer picture but both sides will claim victory with large kill counts claimed for this incursion.

And also seems a little far away from the main front line for staging area, makes more sense for the staging to actually be behind their main lines instead of off on the side where no real combat has been taken place