Illegal alien arrivals now greater than American births?

[Bootstrap]

Do you object to the chart itself? Is something in it inaccurate?

Yes, I think the chart itself is a bald-faced politically motivated lie. You do find some of that on Twitter. Details here:

viewtopic.php?p=215991#p215991

[Bootstrap]

The chart showed, to me, a replacement of births with illegal alien encounters. I think that's worth discussing, and it's an important current event.

I don't understand what you mean. Let me be concrete:

Mary was born this morning. She weighed 8 pounds 3 ounces, and she's very cute. That's a birth. Maria fled gang violence and extreme poverty in El Salvador and was caught trying to enter the United States this morning. She was turned away. That's a Border Patrol encounter. (I don't think it is called an Illegal Alien encounter, she never managed to immigrate at all.)

How did Maria "replace" Mary? Your chart implies she did. To me, the chart looks like nonsense. Intentionally deceptive nonsense. Someone took the time to package this lie very carefully for public political consumption.

[Ken]

Do you object to the chart itself? Is something in it inaccurate?

Yes, I think the chart itself is a bald-faced politically motivated lie. You do find some of that on Twitter. Details here:

viewtopic.php?p=215991#p215991

The title of the chart is "American Births versus Illegal Immigrants"

The blue line which is births is presumably accurate. At first glance the numbers seem to match the CDC data.

However the red line which is purported to show illegal immigrants shows nothing of the sort. Encounters are not the same as illegal immigrants. Encounters either result in expulsion, detention, or legal parole into the country pending an asylum hearing. None of those three outcomes results in an illegal immigrant. Furthermore, none of them are replacing anyone either.

In addition, the "Great Replacement" is a racist term coined in white supremacist and neo-Nazi circles and used to justify mass shootings in Texas and New Zealand. Unhinged racist shooters cite the racist Great Replacement theory as their motivation for mass murder. Recently the term has been brought into wider usage by Tucker Carlson who tried to normalize the term on his show. But that doesn't hide the racist origins and intent of the term. People using this term should know its racist origins and racist intent.

[ken_sylvania]

Do you feel the same way about the people who came to America in the 17-19th centuries, whose immigration numbers exceeded the number of births of those who were born and raised here (the first nation's people)? The first nations folks talked the same way about many your ancestors moving here. Was it fine for them to feel that way about your ancestors?

How did that work out for the First Nations?

I think Ernie's argument is not based on what works or how to achieve the outcome you wish, but rather what is right and just (turn about it fair play... Do to others as you would have done to you...).

In case there is any question - I am not in any way trying to tell the government what they ought to do about immigrants. I just like asking provocative questions to think through things.

[ken_sylvania]

The chart showed, to me, a replacement of births with illegal alien encounters. I think that's worth discussing, and it's an important current event.

I don't understand what you mean. Let me be concrete:

Mary was born this morning. She weighed 8 pounds 3 ounces, and she's very cute. That's a birth. Maria fled gang violence and extreme poverty in El Salvador and was caught trying to enter the United States this morning. She was turned away. That's a Border Patrol encounter. (I don't think it is called an Illegal Alien encounter, she never managed to immigrate at all.)

How did Maria "replace" Mary? Your chart implies she did. To me, the chart looks like nonsense. Intentionally deceptive nonsense. Someone took the time to package this lie very carefully for public political consumption.

Since when did Border Patrol start entering Mexico and encountering potential immigrants before they cross the border.

Not that that makes a difference with regard to your point....

[Ernie]

How did that work out for the First Nations?

I think Ernie's argument is not based on what works or how to achieve the outcome you wish, but rather what is right and just (turn about it fair play... Do to others as you would have done to you...).

In case there is any question - I am not in any way trying to tell the government what they ought to do about immigrants. I just like asking provocative questions to think through things.

I like your questions.

[Josh]

The chart showed, to me, a replacement of births with illegal alien encounters. I think that's worth discussing, and it's an important current event.

I don't understand what you mean. Let me be concrete:

Mary was born this morning. She weighed 8 pounds 3 ounces, and she's very cute. That's a birth. Maria fled gang violence and extreme poverty in El Salvador and was caught trying to enter the United States this morning. She was turned away. That's a Border Patrol encounter. (I don't think it is called an Illegal Alien encounter, she never managed to immigrate at all.)

How did Maria "replace" Mary? Your chart implies she did. To me, the chart looks like nonsense. Intentionally deceptive nonsense. Someone took the time to package this lie very carefully for public political consumption.

Would it make you feel better if I excluded births to illegal aliens from the line for "births"?

And in any case, your example doesn't make sense, because gang violence is just as bad in urban areas in America as in El Salvador. (Gang violence has plummetted in El Salvador since the government decided to start locking up gangsters in prison instead of letting them back out on the streets to kill and cause mayhem again). Migrating to America won't mean escaping extreme poverty either, because we have that in America too.

At the end of the day, it's just comparing two trend lines. One, which is American births, is flat (as in, births that happen in America). The other, illegal alien encounters, seems to rising quite fast. I think it's fine to compare the two things. And yes, it does show a "replacement" is happening. More illegal alien encounters has historically meant more illegal aliens who end up staying and residing here, which means a bigger illegal alien population. And yes, that's a replacement: replacing legal aliens and citizens with illegal aliens. I don't think that's a good thing, and it is not some fringe political view to think it's not a good thing.

[Ken]

The chart showed, to me, a replacement of births with illegal alien encounters. I think that's worth discussing, and it's an important current event.

I don't understand what you mean. Let me be concrete:

Mary was born this morning. She weighed 8 pounds 3 ounces, and she's very cute. That's a birth. Maria fled gang violence and extreme poverty in El Salvador and was caught trying to enter the United States this morning. She was turned away. That's a Border Patrol encounter. (I don't think it is called an Illegal Alien encounter, she never managed to immigrate at all.)

How did Maria "replace" Mary? Your chart implies she did. To me, the chart looks like nonsense. Intentionally deceptive nonsense. Someone took the time to package this lie very carefully for public political consumption.

Since when did Border Patrol start entering Mexico and encountering potential immigrants before they cross the border.

Not that that makes a difference with regard to your point....

If you are captured by the border patrol 2 miles inside the border fence in Arizona, taken to a detention facility, and then expelled, are you an "illegal immigrant" that is displacing Americans? Or are you a deportee? Put another way, if you were captured by the border patrol and expelled from the US, where are you NOW? Inside the US or outside the US?

[ken_sylvania]

I don't understand what you mean. Let me be concrete:

Mary was born this morning. She weighed 8 pounds 3 ounces, and she's very cute. That's a birth. Maria fled gang violence and extreme poverty in El Salvador and was caught trying to enter the United States this morning. She was turned away. That's a Border Patrol encounter. (I don't think it is called an Illegal Alien encounter, she never managed to immigrate at all.)

How did Maria "replace" Mary? Your chart implies she did. To me, the chart looks like nonsense. Intentionally deceptive nonsense. Someone took the time to package this lie very carefully for public political consumption.

Since when did Border Patrol start entering Mexico and encountering potential immigrants before they cross the border.

Not that that makes a difference with regard to your point....

If you are captured by the border patrol 2 miles inside the border fence in Arizona, taken to a detention facility, and then expelled, are you an "illegal immigrant" that is displacing Americans? Or are you a deportee? Put another way, if you were captured by the border patrol and expelled from the US, where are you NOW? Inside the US or outside the US?

Which...is...why...I...said...it...doesn't...make...a...difference...with...regard...to...Bootstrap's...point...

Assuming Maria was not a US Citizen and not authorized to enter the USA, then as soon as she crossed the border she became an illegal alien. Even if she only just managed to get three yards in before Border Patrol found her.

[Bootstrap]

The chart showed, to me, a replacement of births with illegal alien encounters. I think that's worth discussing, and it's an important current event.

I don't understand what you mean. Let me be concrete:

Mary was born this morning. She weighed 8 pounds 3 ounces, and she's very cute. That's a birth. Maria fled gang violence and extreme poverty in El Salvador and was caught trying to enter the United States this morning. She was turned away. That's a Border Patrol encounter. (I don't think it is called an Illegal Alien encounter, she never managed to immigrate at all.)

How did Maria "replace" Mary? Your chart implies she did. To me, the chart looks like nonsense. Intentionally deceptive nonsense. Someone took the time to package this lie very carefully for public political consumption.

Would it make you feel better if I excluded births to illegal aliens from the line for "births"?

How would that answer my question?

I really don't understand how encounters with Border Patrol tells us the number of immigrants in America. The graph pretends it does, and warns us that this means Americans are being "replaced".

Did my Thai neighbor replace me? How?