HondurasKeiser wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2023 10:43 am
Ken wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2023 10:12 am
HondurasKeiser wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2023 9:44 am
Well as it turns out neither did/does Hamas...so they both got what they wanted until they didn't? I'm unconvinced by arguments that seek to place the blame of October 7th on Jews and Israel.
They aren't to blame for Hamas and 10/7 per se.
But there is plenty of evidence of: (1) overt actions by Netanyahu and Israel to empower Hamas over the years as part of a strategy to undermine a 2-state solution, and (2) incompetence and/or negligence by Israeli leaders in the defense of the southern border that made the 10/7 attack vastly worse and more deadly than it needed to be. Due in part by the military focus on propping up Israel's settlement program in the West Bank.
Both of these lines of argument have been made extensively in the Israeli press.
I think it's a fine thing to do a self-evaluation during and after the fact to figure out "how we dropped the ball" and "how we can avoid similar mistakes in the future". That's both healthy and normal and many countries do such things even when they win the war. It seems strange to me though that the NYT and certain posters here (Josh particularly) are dunking on Israel and low-key placing the onus of blame on Netanyahu/the Right/Israel-broadly for the evil actions of Hamas. Everyone is a IR specialist after-the-fact and everyone perfectly diagnoses the failures of those in charge once they've read a think piece or two. As it stands though, no one can know for sure what would or would not have actually prevented an October 7th. Perhaps not focusing on judicial reform would have prevented the tragedy but then again perhaps Hamas would have lived out their mission statement regardless the particular Prime Minister. What we can know is that Hamas was the group of people that took it upon themselves to slaughter, rape, torture and kidnap civilians - many of whom had welcomed Gazans into their homes for meals and work.
From what I have read, there is enough evidence to conclude that the Israeli defense establishment completely dropped the ball on 10/7. And had they been doing their job competently, a bunch of Hamas fighters on gliders and motorcycles would not have gotten more than 15 ft from the border before being cut down en mass by helicopter gunships, tanks, armored personnel carriers, and all the other modern weaponry that Israel has at its disposal.
Why did that happen? Israel, like the US is a democracy with civilian control of the military. And many of Netanyahu's political loyalists and allies were in key positions of authority in the ministry of defense. We also know that they were focused on supporting settler expansion in the West Bank and that there were large numbers of troops deployed in the West Bank for this purpose rather than defending the southern border with Gaza. I'm sure the facts about that will continue to come out over time.
Had they did their job and actually protect the southern border in a competent manner then Israel would not be in the place it is today. Because the result would have been an unmitigated defeat for Hamas and victory for Israel. Israel could still have chosen to invade Gaza. But they would not have felt compelled to do so. They would have had a broader suite of policy options including more border crackdowns and that sort of thing.
So while Israel isn't responsible for 10/7. They are responsible for how the events played out and the corner that they have found themselves in. Which is destabilizing the entire middle east and setting back for a generation Israel's foreign policy objectives in the Arab world. For example, there is now probably zero chance of any sort of peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia when that was very much in the works prior to 10/7. And no chance of a second round of Abraham Accords anytime soon, perhaps for a generation. That is on Israel.