Major attack on Israel by Hamas

[mike]

Gaza Health Ministry says over 8,000 Palestinians have now died:

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas ... eaae5bb0f3

Have Israeli casualties gone up beyond the initial 1,400?

I would be very slow to trust the Gaza Health Ministry source. Just recently, there was a claim of 500 killed at a hospital when the truth was it was a Hamas rocket that misfired and just hit the parking lot of the hospital. I think like 10 were injured or died.

Even the NYT has admitted they have trusted the Hamas numbers too much.

I also remember after 9/11 when 3000 died, the US killed over 50,000 in the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Retaliation will always exact a higher price. This is what makes it a deterrent to more attacks. I do not like it, but this is the way it works. Israel is not doing anything different now then what has always been done. I am actually surprised it has taken them this long to do it. Rockets have been flying into Israel for years.

I would be very reluctant to trust ANY number as gospel truth. Including Israel's numbers. But I have rarely seen casualty numbers overestimated in a war, and the US State Department is using the Gaza Health ministry numbers internally for estimates. They are providing the names of the victims together with other identifying information. I suspect both Israel and Biden are motivated to minimize the horrors being inflicted on civilians.

Retaliation is not usually an effective deterrent. Killing large numbers of children and other civilians usually makes the other side mad and encourages them to seek revenge. The United States lost the wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq.

And yes, Israel is doing the same thing they always have. I expect it will have the same result it always has.

I don't know what numbers to believe, but it is entirely predictable that Hamas' terrorist attack would only end up hurting the Palestinians far worse. So why did Hamas do it, then? That's what I don't understand.

[barnhart]

Desperation.

[Bootstrap]

I don't know what numbers to believe, but it is entirely predictable that Hamas' terrorist attack would only end up hurting the Palestinians far worse. So why did Hamas do it, then? That's what I don't understand.

I wouldn't trust our explanations of their motivation, either. We probably don't think like terrorists. But I think it's helpful to read up on the Nakba. Remember that most people living in Gaza are refugees. Then add recent atrocities against Palestinians and Netanyahu's attempt to grab control of the Israeli Supreme Court, partly to limit the basic rights of Palestinians. And the lack of any kind of diplomatic process to give Palestinians hope. I don't think terrorism is a well-considered military, they are striking out to show their outrage. And it makes Hamas look big and important. If we want to understand terrorists, I think we have to understand rage.

Desperation.

You wrote that while I was writing the above. But both rage and desperation are probably involved.

But most Palestinians are not terrorists. The thousands of children who have died are not terrorists. You can't just bomb residential neighborhoods and expect to kill mostly terrorists. I don't really understand Israel's response either. Perhaps for exactly the same reason.

Retaliation is not a coherent military strategy to achieve peace.

[mike]

Desperation.

Kind of like how people hang themselves out of desperation?

[Bootstrap]

Desperation.

Kind of like how people hang themselves out of desperation?

Many mass killings are done by suicidal people who want to go out in a blaze. I don't think that's exactly the same thing, but I would guess that the emotional framework is similar.

[barnhart]

Desperation.

Kind of like how people hang themselves out of desperation?

Maybe, thank the Lord I don't have experience with either so I can only guess. The combination of repressive circumstances that increasingly deteriorate and no reasonable hope for improvement is likely destabilizing for anyone.

[mike]

I don't know what numbers to believe, but it is entirely predictable that Hamas' terrorist attack would only end up hurting the Palestinians far worse. So why did Hamas do it, then? That's what I don't understand.

I wouldn't trust our explanations of their motivation, either. We probably don't think like terrorists. But I think it's helpful to read up on the Nakba. Remember that most people living in Gaza are refugees. Then add recent atrocities against Palestinians and Netanyahu's attempt to grab control of the Israeli Supreme Court, partly to limit the basic rights of Palestinians. And the lack of any kind of diplomatic process to give Palestinians hope. I don't think terrorism is a well-considered military, they are striking out to show their outrage. And it makes Hamas look big and important. If we want to understand terrorists, I think we have to understand rage.

Desperation.

You wrote that while I was writing the above. But both rage and desperation are probably involved.

But most Palestinians are not terrorists. The thousands of children who have died are not terrorists. You can't just bomb residential neighborhoods and expect to kill mostly terrorists. I don't really understand Israel's response either. Perhaps for exactly the same reason.

Retaliation is not a coherent military strategy to achieve peace.

One could make a good argument that this is not the case. Military strategy in many major conflicts was based on retaliation and the use of overwhelming force in such a way as to destroy the ability of the enemy to make war, resulting in long periods of peace between prior belligerents. I.e. World War II resulting in a lasting peace between the Allies & Germany, Japan, & Italy. I doubt that the Allies cared about proportionality or not being retaliatory. They wanted to destroy the ability of the Axis to make war; and that is what they did.

Do you believe that evil ideologies exist, where there is no explanation that most rational people would expect other than that a person or group of people just wants to kill, destroy, or torture, another person or group of people, without regard to innocent civilians?

If Hamas deliberately targeted innocent Israeli civilians in their terrorist attack, as they clearly did, what is their moral authority for complaining about Palestinian civilians being killed in Israeli attacks, especially if Israel gives warning and time for civilians to evacuate as they supposedly do routinely?

[mike]

Desperation.

Kind of like how people hang themselves out of desperation?

Many mass killings are done by suicidal people who want to go out in a blaze. I don't think that's exactly the same thing, but I would guess that the emotional framework is similar.

Then there is the religious element here, where fanatics commit acts that are obviously not in their self-interest unless you factor in the eternal rewards that are promised to them and the temporal rewards that are promised their families. Or maybe the idea that their martyrdom will garner world attention to their cause and move the needle toward the end goals of the Palestinians. However the idea that pictures of murdered Israeli corpses will move the world to sympathy for Hamas is pretty fantastical.

I think it would be rare to have 1,500 people that are so mentally depressed by their situation that they see no way out other than to die while killing as many people as they can. I think the religious element is probably much more of a thing a feeling of desperation. I think these killers went out with a real joy and delight in what they were planning to do because in their religious world they were doing the ultimate good, waging holy war and giving their lives for their faith.

[Bootstrap]

If Hamas deliberately targeted innocent Israeli civilians in their terrorist attack, as they clearly did, what is their moral authority for complaining about Palestinian civilians being killed in Israeli attacks, especially if Israel gives warning and time for civilians to evacuate as they supposedly do routinely?

Let's turn that around. If Israelis have deliberately targeted Palestinians in atrocities, why should they complain about Hamas killing Israelis?

Because innocents should be protected. Because killing children indiscriminately is an outrage. Because civilians are not presumed to be terrorists, and are not guilty of everything someone else did.

[Bootstrap]

Many mass killings are done by suicidal people who want to go out in a blaze. I don't think that's exactly the same thing, but I would guess that the emotional framework is similar.

Then there is the religious element here, where fanatics commit acts that are obviously not in their self-interest unless you factor in the eternal rewards that are promised to them and the temporal rewards that are promised their families. Or maybe the idea that their martyrdom will garner world attention to their cause and move the needle toward the end goals of the Palestinians. However the idea that pictures of murdered Israeli corpses will move the world to sympathy for Hamas is pretty fantastical.

Ah, but I think they knew how Israel would respond. The pictures of murdered Palestinian corpses are moving some people to sympathy for the plight of the Palestinian people. I don't think most Palestinians were signing up for that.

There is a religious element on all sides of this war. Jews, Muslims, and Christians.

FWIW, there are also Christians in America who want to start a holy war here ...

I think it would be rare to have 1,500 people that are so mentally depressed by their situation that they see no way out other than to die while killing as many people as they can.

I don't understand what you are saying here. 1,500 people matches the number of Israelis who were killed, but they clearly don't match your description. What are you thinking of?

I think the religious element is probably much more of a thing a feeling of desperation. I think these killers went out with a real joy and delight in what they were planning to do because in their religious world they were doing the ultimate good, waging holy war and giving their lives for their faith.

I think that's hard to separate from the desperation.

And don't Israeli soldiers have similar motivation? Some of them out of religious identity, others out of national identity? People want to protect their own kind. Most groups celebrate their own martyrs.