It’s a pipe dream.
At the same time, if we’re honest, we have to acknowledge that Ukraine may not achieve total military success in the next year or two. Its counteroffensive is making progress, but slowly and painfully. The Russian military, though battered and demoralized, has remained resilient, even against advanced Western weapons and tactics. And Russia has a seemingly endless supply of young men whose lives it is willing to waste in this war.
It’s effectively turned into a stalemate and somehow believing that the US will give them whatever they need is a fantasy. 1: the US will not give them all they ask for and never will. 2: Ukraine will not declare a pause until Russia gives up its territory taken, or is driven back enough to be conquered. Even with that being said, The current leader is more likely to be leading a resistance movement from a safe country then surrender his nation.
The writer doesn’t explain what he means by integrating with western institutions either.
In this scenario, the United States would give the Ukrainian military whatever it needs to advance as far as possible in its counteroffensive. At an appropriate point next year, Ukraine would declare a pause in offensive military operations and shift its primary focus to defending and rebuilding liberated areas while integrating with Western institutions. Then, at its July, 2024 summit in
Washington, NATO would invite Ukraine to join the Western alliance, guaranteeing the security of all territory controlled by the Ukrainian government at that point under Article 5 of the NATO treaty.
NATO will not invite Ukraine to join as there are veto votes from Nations not wanting to risk war with Russia. Don’t believe all the propaganda Russia isn’t falling over as easily as people like to say it is. Better technology only works if you can capitalize on the advantage while you have it.
They are not advancing quickly enough and despite the negativity about Russian capabilities they do have more advanced weapons not being used. Russia is content to do a holding action and continue to do little probes to keep the war active. He’s right that Russia just needs to hold out until the rest of the world gets bored.
Let’s say somehow NATO does invite them to join, Ukraine is not going to be happy unless it has all its territory. Do the advanced technology and weapons continue to flow into Ukraine to support their ongoing war? I think that Russia would rightly see that as NATO joining the war. If you set an a line and say Russia cannot pass, and Russia can only play in the sandbox past it, yet we’re going to make sure your play bully has better weapons… we will see things get very ugly.
Honestly though I think it’s delusional to think NATO is going to invite them to join and get it voted through.
Nobody wants World War III and that’s how you do it. Russia either has to concede, Ukraine has to concede, or they need to formalize some sort of cease-fire with recognition on some level for taken territory for NATO to actually be involved.
One cannot forget the tiger on the mountain either. Our country is not eager to poke it and I see Russia becoming a second Nation to China and in many ways, they are a nastier North Korea to drain US resources.
This war isn’t about Ukraine anymore… it’s a proxy war of the West versus the east and if you think the west is going to win, you aren’t looking at the long game.
