Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Szdfan]

Even when Russia did settle before with (Poland?) they still came out better off in terms of land. It’s foolish to think Russia is going to give up any fortified held territory without major loss of life which isn’t going to happen unless western powers send manpower.

From my reading, a recent briefing at the Pentagon noted that it's unlikely that Ukraine will recapture the Crimea in the near future, which angered the Ukrainians, because they are determined to recapture it.

Fighting for the last man standing (and demanding literal billions of dollars from us) to recapture Crimea seems wrong to me. Sorry, but I don’t think it’s worth hundreds of thousands of dead bodies just to regain “territorial integrity” that existed from… 1990 through 2014?

You can think whatever you want, but it's irrelevant to whether or not the Ukrainians and the Russians are able to negotiate a ceasefire. Neither side is willing to give up at this moment and any peace plan that doesn't deal with this issue is not going to be successful.

[Ken]

The island of Sahkalin was more recently until World War II, a part of Japan. The island is only 40km from Japan's northern island of Hokkaido. It's possible to see Sahkalin from the northern Japanese city Wakkanai on a clear day.

Until recently, the railroad on Sahkalin had the same gauge as Japanese railroads (1067mm), but has been converted to Russian broad gauge in the past few years.

None of that matters in this game. It was Chinese territory until an ascendent Japan colonized it in the beginning of the 19th Century. And China is playing a very long game here.

China probably has its eye on it not much for the actual land, but because it would grant then an enormous expansion of their EEZ and control over a vast new section of the Pacific and Sea of Okhotsk. China senses that it's rightful ocean territories are unfairly constrained by all the other nations that surround it. Look at a map. It has no access to the Indian Ocean because of all the south Asian nations along its southern border. And its access to the Pacific is constrained by the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and Russia. Sahkalin would vastly increase their EEZ on the north Pacific.

[Szdfan]

Looks like the Russians have rejected China's peace plan.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/ ... ine-a80345

The Kremlin on Monday acknowledged China's proposal for a political solution in Ukraine but said the conditions for a peaceful resolution of the conflict were not in place "at the moment."

"We paid a lot of attention to our Chinese friends' plan," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, adding that: "for now, we don't see any of the conditions that are needed to bring this whole story towards peace."

So I guess no deux ex machina from the Chinese. Until the conditions on the ground change and the cost of fighting is greater than the cost of peace, the war is going to continue.

[Ken]

Even when Russia did settle before with (Poland?) they still came out better off in terms of land. It’s foolish to think Russia is going to give up any fortified held territory without major loss of life which isn’t going to happen unless western powers send manpower.

From my reading, a recent briefing at the Pentagon noted that it's unlikely that Ukraine will recapture the Crimea in the near future, which angered the Ukrainians, because they are determined to recapture it.

They don't actually have to recapture it militarily to make the Russian occupation difficult or unviable. If they capture Melitopol they will cut off Russian land access to Crimea. And they will be in range to continually destroy the Kerch Bridge which will make Russian resupply impossible from that direction. And they will also be within range to target the Russian naval base at Sebastopol, making it impossible for Russia to maintain a naval presence there. Much of the water supply to Crimea also comes from North Crimean Canal which flows from the Dnieper River in Kherson which Ukraine can also cut off.

Without a peace agreement, Ukraine can make Russian occupation very difficult or unviable over the long term.

[Ken]

Looks like the Russians have rejected China's peace plan.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/ ... ine-a80345

The Kremlin on Monday acknowledged China's proposal for a political solution in Ukraine but said the conditions for a peaceful resolution of the conflict were not in place "at the moment."

"We paid a lot of attention to our Chinese friends' plan," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, adding that: "for now, we don't see any of the conditions that are needed to bring this whole story towards peace."

So I guess no deux ex machina from the Chinese. Until the conditions on the ground change and the cost of fighting is greater than the cost of peace, the war is going to continue.

There are wheels within wheels. China is probably speaking more to an US/EU audience. And also to the global south. Than it is to Russia and Ukraine.

China actually benefits by a prolonged Ukraine war and diminishment of Russia. There is no geopolitical reason for them to want this war to come to a quick settlement. To the contrary.

[Szdfan]

Szd,
Your response is a longer version of the Zelensky interview just above, he states he’s interested in China’s offer to choose cease fire,
he states it’s about actions and details, of course.

On his part, Zelensky is not free to choose, $100+ billion comes with strings.

As far as your simplistic words about “as long as both side” .. true, in basic human reasoning. Thankfully, real life is more-than.
For instance: Was there 1 person anywhere that foresaw China stepping up with recommendations for cease fire?!

I'm not being simplistic. I'm listening to what both sides are saying about what they want and what their aims are. Both sides still think they can win or at least get what they want. Until that changes -- until one or both sides realize that their goals are impossible -- there won't be peace.

As I posted earlier, Russia has rejected the Chinese proposal because "conditions for a peaceful resolution of the conflict were not in place 'at the moment.'" Russia doesn't want a ceasefire because they think they can still get what they want and they are willing to send their soldiers into the metaphorical meat grinder to get it.

This is what makes life grand: THE UNEXPECTED. Jesus, Himself, embodies THE UNEXPECTED.

Men with notorious limitations are so often wrong. Even very powerful men with untold riches. Even propagandists.
i’m not sure why every thought+action isn’t automatically hedged with, “if God wills.”

I believe miracles can happen, but I don't look at complex geo-political situations with the expectation that a miracle is going to happen. I think the expectation that someone is going to swoop in there and solve this mess is incredibly simplistic and puts too much trust into some sort of strong man Daddy figure.

Jimmy Carter / P.1
viewtopic.php?t=5471

Ken:
His actual claim to fame was the Camp David Peace Accords between Israel and Egypt which have held for 45 years.

i was busy being a young wife and mother, not paying attention to politics, even i remember this “impossible” moment in history.
the awe of the moment has not faded.

Different situation. Also, that "impossible" moment took 14 months of secret negotiations facilitated by the US.

$100+ billion isn’t chump change, the profiteers aren’t going to say, “ok, great, never mind” and go home empty-handed.

Zelensky is not a free man.

I feel like you keep robbing the Ukrainians of their own agency. Do I think there are people profiting from this war? Yes (including Russian weapons manufacturers). Do I think that the West is acting in its own self interest in its support for Ukraine? Absolutely. That's what countries do -- they act in their own self-interest.

However, I also think the idea that the only reason that Ukraine is fighting Russia is because the West is forcing them to is bizarre. Ukraine is asking -- begging -- for the weapons the West is supplying them. They are upset that the West hasn't given them everything they want, like F16 fighter jets.

Ukraine isn't fighting Russia because the West is forcing them too. Ukraine is fighting Russia because that country invaded them and is trying to destroy them. That's not some shadowy international conspiracy, that's basic human nature.

[Szdfan]

At this point, talk of peace on both sides is largely strategic soft power and positioning. Until the situation on the ground changes, I wouldn't accept any of this rhetoric at face value.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/26/us/p ... ticleShare

For now, analysts and Western officials say, serious peace talks are extremely difficult to envision. Both sides have set conditions for negotiations that cannot be met anytime soon, and have vowed to fight until victory.

And Ukraine’s president has ruled out dealing directly with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin because of atrocities committed by his military forces.

At the same time, both sides also have a keen interest in showing an openness to negotiations.

But far from pointing to a peaceful end, such talk is largely strategic. It is intended to placate allies, cast the opposition as unreasonable and, especially on the Ukrainian side, tamp down a growing desire within Western countries to find an end to the costly war.

The article points out that Russian rhetoric about peace is intended to placate important trading partners like India, South Africa and Brazil, who have not taken a stand about the war.

U.S. officials call Mr. Putin’s own talk of peace absurd. They note that Russia is brutally attacking its neighbor and insists that Ukrainians accept Russian annexation of large swaths of their territory as a condition of peace. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference last weekend, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken warned of a “false equivalence” between an aggressor and a victim.

“If Russia withdraws its troops today, the war is over,” he said. “Of course, if Ukraine stops fighting today, Ukraine is over.”

[Soloist]

Something to keep in mind Ken, any tactic will be countered. Russia wouldn’t just sit there and be attacked.
This all circles back to my point. It’s not going to happen without large loss of life.
Also, Ukraine hasn’t blown that bridge for a reason you know.

[Ken]

Something to keep in mind Ken, any tactic will be countered. Russia wouldn’t just sit there and be attacked.
This all circles back to my point. It’s not going to happen without large loss of life.
Also, Ukraine hasn’t blown that bridge for a reason you know.

The Kerch Bridge was already blown up by Ukraine back in October. They are probably waiting for Russia to get it completely fixed before blowing it up again. Every month that passes, Ukraine increases its long range strike capabilities. A bridge that you can't move, hide, armor, or shelter is an obvious sitting duck target.



As for how defendable Crimea is? Here is an analysis by a retired US General that says more or less what I just did.

[Neto]

The thing about cutting off water supply to Crimea is that this punishes the people there who are favorable to being a part of Ukraine, right along with the Russians who live there. (I'm thinking primarily of the Tatars, who are largely pro Ukraine. They lived there from the rather distant past, suffered at the hands of the Soviets, and now again at the hands of the Russian Federation. They moved back there after Ukrainian independence, reclaiming their ancestral home.)