Soloist wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:34 pm
Ken wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:49 pm
Actually in contrast to the above video, Putin is almost certainly bluffing.
The fact is that any first use of nuclear weapons by a nuclear state against a non-nuclear state will instantly obliterate the 1970 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty which virtually every country in the world has signed other than Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Sudan.
In very simple terms, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is a promise between nuclear and non-nuclear nations in that the non-nuclear nations agree not to seek and build nuclear weapons and the nuclear nations agree not to use them against non-nuclear states. In other words, if you promise not to build your own nuclear weapons, the nuclear states agree not to use their weapons against you.
But the US and USSR were primary signatories as was China.
No nuclear state wants to see nuclear proliferation. It makes the world much less stable. This especially applies to Russia which has longer and more hostile borders than any other country in the world. Russia has no interest in seeing nations it borders like Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and even Ukraine gain nuclear weapons. And the surest way to guarantee all of those states build and arm themselves with nuclear weapons is to use them against a non-nuclear state.
That in a nutshell is why Russia is almost certainly bluffing. It would be exceedingly stupid and counterproductive for them to use nukes in Ukraine because it would lead to a proliferation of nuclear weapons across all of Russia's borders. They aren't that irrational.
Maybe, but the they might be too busy looking at short term gain to look at long term cost. They may estimate that a nuke in "defense" will not result in more cost then this war has already cost them in terms of political tension and wager that USA isn't willing to actually put boots on the ground.
Russia is surrounded by former nuclear states or technologically advanced states that may become increasingly hostile to Russia in the future: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Lithuania, Finland, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, Turkmenistan, Georgia, etc. More than any other country on the planet by far.
Using nukes in Ukraine will be an absolute green light for every one of those other countries to develop their own nuclear programs, either overtly, or in secret. And many of them have enough nuclear scientists and technology to do it relatively quickly. Does Russia really want 10 more nuclear states on its doorstep? The only reason it can be a bully now is because the countries that it is messing with like Ukraine and Georgia do not have nuclear weapons.
What would be the short-term gain with using nukes in Ukraine? What military targets would they use them against? Or would they just destroy Kyiv or Odessa? All that would accomplish is make Russia even more toxic internationally and countries like China and India who are now more or less neutral would come under immense pressure to cut any remaining ties with Russia. And it would absolutely guarantee that whatever fractures might exist within the EU and NATO would all vanish in the face of a Russia using nukes.
I don't think the threat of nuclear weapons use is credible because it makes no sense. The threat of universal mobilization and conscription is a bit different. That is about the only way that Russia can escalate the war. But they are more constrained by logistics and equipment at the moment than troops. And training up new soldiers is not a fast or easy process. Unless they just want to send a bunch of untrained cannon fodder into the meat grinder. When the US ramped up for WW2 it took about 2 years from Pearl Harbor in 1941 to the first major invasion of the European mainland by US troops during the Sicily invasion in 1943 and another year after that until D-Day. And that was with total mobilization of the US economy and a war that was far less technologically advanced than modern 21st century warfare.
And the US doesn't have to put boots on the ground. The US could send a carrier group into the Black Sea and enforce a NATO no-fly zone across all of Ukraine. All without sending a single ground soldier into Ukraine. NATO has more aircraft carriers than the Russians have total warships. And NATO has 5-10 times more of every category of aircraft than Russia and what they do have is more advanced and capable.
Basically Russia is out of good options.
