Global Warning/Climate Change

[nett]

That may be so. But the fact is that the horse was essentially regulated out of existence in most cities by the 1920s through land use regulations and other indirect prohibitions. If there are no longer any stables within 10 miles of your home you effectively can't own a horse for transportation because where are you going to put it at night? Obviously rural areas and farms are different as the Amish still use horses. But they don't live in NYC. Or if they do they don't keep horses in Manhattan.

More or less the same as how gasoline cars will eventually be mostly regulated out of existence. If not directly then through things like the lack of available gas stations in many areas. Already gas stations are closing in many large cities like NYC because they are a low margin business with high costs and property owners can make so much more money developing the land for other uses. If you have to drive half an hour out of your way to get gas that gasoline powered car suddenly looks less appealing than an electric car you can charge in your driveway or parking space.

Sounds nice in theory, but horses eat grass, which is grown by the sun. Electric cars are powered by 1000 year old trees. They're already telling people in Cali not to charge their cars, and in Europe you won't be able to afford to charge your phone, let alone an EV.

[Sliceitup]

Actually that's not exactly true either. Sale of horse-drawn carriages were not banned. That is true. But once automobiles became a viable alternative many cities quickly imposed a variety of restrictions on the use of horses for sanitation and congestion reasons. In the 1890s and early 1900s horse manure was an enormous problem in American cities, piling up knee-deep in places and causing the spread of smell, filth, and disease (from flies). Cities quickly started regulating horses out of existence by doing things like banning stables in middle class and wealthy neighborhoods, restricting their use on certain roads, etc. By the 1920s it was virtually impossible to keep a horse drawn carriage in many cities because all the stables had been regulated out of existence and/or converted into car garages. You can't keep a horse in the city if there is no place to keep it.

Of course rural areas were different. But the country was rapidly urbanizing by the early 1900s.

https://99percentinvisible.org/article/ ... isis-1894/

This was not necessary either. How to design cities to prevent these issues has been understood since the medieval time. As usual, American cities, towns and villages were poorly planned, with almost the entire emphasis being on speed of construction and efficiency in terms of dollars, rather than long term viability, ecology, sanitation etc.

That may be so. But the fact is that the horse was essentially regulated out of existence in most cities by the 1920s through land use regulations and other indirect prohibitions. If there are no longer any stables within 10 miles of your home you effectively can't own a horse for transportation because where are you going to put it at night? Obviously rural areas and farms are different as the Amish still use horses. But they don't live in NYC. Or if they do they don't keep horses in Manhattan.

More or less the same as how gasoline cars will eventually be mostly regulated out of existence. If not directly then through things like the lack of available gas stations in many areas. Already gas stations are closing in many large cities like NYC because they are a low margin business with high costs and property owners can make so much more money developing the land for other uses. If you have to drive half an hour out of your way to get gas that gasoline powered car suddenly looks less appealing than an electric car you can charge in your driveway or parking space.

I’m curious how electric cars will be charged in the city. Will there be charging stations similar to parking meters? I have a sibling that lives in Philly and parking is a mess to begin with.

[Ken]

This was not necessary either. How to design cities to prevent these issues has been understood since the medieval time. As usual, American cities, towns and villages were poorly planned, with almost the entire emphasis being on speed of construction and efficiency in terms of dollars, rather than long term viability, ecology, sanitation etc.

That may be so. But the fact is that the horse was essentially regulated out of existence in most cities by the 1920s through land use regulations and other indirect prohibitions. If there are no longer any stables within 10 miles of your home you effectively can't own a horse for transportation because where are you going to put it at night? Obviously rural areas and farms are different as the Amish still use horses. But they don't live in NYC. Or if they do they don't keep horses in Manhattan.

More or less the same as how gasoline cars will eventually be mostly regulated out of existence. If not directly then through things like the lack of available gas stations in many areas. Already gas stations are closing in many large cities like NYC because they are a low margin business with high costs and property owners can make so much more money developing the land for other uses. If you have to drive half an hour out of your way to get gas that gasoline powered car suddenly looks less appealing than an electric car you can charge in your driveway or parking space.

I’m curious how electric cars will be charged in the city. Will there be charging stations similar to parking meters? I have a sibling that lives in Philly and parking is a mess to begin with.

Long term?

People with homes that have garages or driveways will find it easy. Just install a level 2 charger in the garage or outside the house.

People with fancier apartments and condos will start having charging stations installed in their parking spaces as a amenity that they pay for. Already higher-end apartments are starting to provide charging in many cities. There will be a transition period as apartment and condo complexes start to install charging stations in their parking areas until eventually years from now most or all of them will have it. Probably metered so you pay it with your utility bill.

People in big cities who don't have parking at their apartment will find reserved parking spots in parking garages that will start to provide charging. So you pay for monthly parking at the garage down the street and it will start coming with a charging station which you will of course pay a fee for.

The last people who will get charging are those who park on the street and don't have a reserved spot. They will likely have to go to public charging stations just like gas stations and it will be a hassle. I expect for those who live in big cities and have no place to park their car will probably start questioning how much they actually NEED to own a car. Versus just picking one up when they want to use it like a ZipCar.

Pretty much everyone who lives outside major cities has private parking at their home so it won't be an issue. Just the cost of installing the charger.

[Sliceitup]

Long term?

People with homes that have garages or driveways will find it easy. Just install a level 2 charger in the garage or outside the house.

People with fancier apartments and condos will start having charging stations installed in their parking spaces as a amenity that they pay for. Already higher-end apartments are starting to provide charging in many cities. There will be a transition period as apartment and condo complexes start to install charging stations in their parking areas until eventually years from now most or all of them will have it. Probably metered so you pay it with your utility bill.

People in big cities who don't have parking at their apartment will find reserved parking spots in parking garages that will start to provide charging. So you pay for monthly parking at the garage down the street and it will start coming with a charging station which you will of course pay a fee for.

The last people who will get charging are those who park on the street and don't have a reserved spot. They will likely have to go to public charging stations just like gas stations and it will be a hassle. I expect for those who live in big cities and have no place to park their car will probably start questioning how much they actually NEED to own a car. Versus just picking one up when they want to use it like a ZipCar.

Pretty much everyone who lives outside major cities has private parking at their home so it won't be an issue. Just the cost of installing the charger.

This doesn’t seem to be an assessment that is very aware of inter city parking issues. Fully 10% of the state’s population lives in Philadelphia. And there’s many other much smaller cities in the state where the majority of the people have only on street parking.

People in big cities who don't have parking at their apartment

That’s basically all of Philly. And paying for a dedicated parking spot in a garage is expensive. We’re talking $200-500 per month. A garage or off street parking can add $20,000 to the price of a home in Philly. And quadruple that if you’re talking about Center City. It’s not an expense that middle class Philadelphians will pay for.

I think the infrastructure required for on street charging is going to be very problematic.

All that said, I’m a huge fan of EV.

[Ken]

Long term?

People with homes that have garages or driveways will find it easy. Just install a level 2 charger in the garage or outside the house.

People with fancier apartments and condos will start having charging stations installed in their parking spaces as a amenity that they pay for. Already higher-end apartments are starting to provide charging in many cities. There will be a transition period as apartment and condo complexes start to install charging stations in their parking areas until eventually years from now most or all of them will have it. Probably metered so you pay it with your utility bill.

People in big cities who don't have parking at their apartment will find reserved parking spots in parking garages that will start to provide charging. So you pay for monthly parking at the garage down the street and it will start coming with a charging station which you will of course pay a fee for.

The last people who will get charging are those who park on the street and don't have a reserved spot. They will likely have to go to public charging stations just like gas stations and it will be a hassle. I expect for those who live in big cities and have no place to park their car will probably start questioning how much they actually NEED to own a car. Versus just picking one up when they want to use it like a ZipCar.

Pretty much everyone who lives outside major cities has private parking at their home so it won't be an issue. Just the cost of installing the charger.

This doesn’t seem to be an assessment that is very aware of inter city parking issues. Fully 10% of the state’s population lives in Philadelphia. And there’s many other much smaller cities in the state where the majority of the people have only on street parking.

People in big cities who don't have parking at their apartment

That’s basically all of Philly. And paying for a dedicated parking spot in a garage is expensive. We’re talking $200-500 per month. A garage or off street parking can add $20,000 to the price of a home in Philly. And quadruple that if you’re talking about Center City. It’s not an expense that middle class Philadelphians will pay for.

I think the infrastructure required for on street charging is going to be very problematic.

All that said, I’m a huge fan of EV.

I don't disagree. Owning a vehicle while living in the center of a major city has always been an expensive hassle. I doubt anything will change about that.

[nett]

Given that our electric grid is already dated and at capacity, how do you see the switch to home charging of electric vehicles turning out? Germany is already predicting grid issues because of the people buying heat pumps for the winter, and the utility companies are openly saying it's not going to work.

it takes around 100 kwh to fully charge a model 3, if you figure everyone is charging half that every night, that's a MASSIVE load on the electrical grid, and delivery is already incredibly inefficient. It would make a lot more sense to charge somewhere closer to generation.

[Sliceitup]

Given that our electric grid is already dated and at capacity, how do you see the switch to home charging of electric vehicles turning out? Germany is already predicting grid issues because of the people buying heat pumps for the winter, and the utility companies are openly saying it's not going to work.

it takes around 100 kwh to fully charge a model 3, if you figure everyone is charging half that every night, that's a MASSIVE load on the electrical grid, and delivery is already incredibly inefficient. It would make a lot more sense to charge somewhere closer to generation.

My guess is more people will add solar panels to their roofs, and bypass the grid.

[temporal1]

Given that our electric grid is already dated and at capacity, how do you see the switch to home charging of electric vehicles turning out? Germany is already predicting grid issues because of the people buying heat pumps for the winter, and the utility companies are openly saying it's not going to work.

it takes around 100 kwh to fully charge a model 3, if you figure everyone is charging half that every night, that's a MASSIVE load on the electrical grid, and delivery is already incredibly inefficient. It would make a lot more sense to charge somewhere closer to generation.

there should be no presumption life will morph and carry on in recognizable ways.
when historically busy commuting highways were abruptly quieted due to political pandemic response, this was a hint at how quickly drastic change can happen. a test run for ideologues??

what hasn’t changed due to (ongoing) political pandemic response? are we to believe, this is nothing? temporary?

now that low approval rating Congress has given itself access to multiple trillions, “temporary” is a word on its path to obsolescence.
Congress has not shown any concern about its low approval ratings. Spectacularly so.

Worse is on its way. This is the mild stuff.

There was a time when most would laugh at the thought of railroad tracks being removed, to be replaced with mostly unused bike paths, and/or nothing.

[Robert]

My guess is more people will add solar panels to their roofs, and bypass the grid.

Solar panels create a very toxic waste. One also has to have some kind of storage since the sun shines elsewhere at night so direct charging of cars would not work. These are very expensive presently. The technology is not here yet. Nuclear is a clear benefit and can be done safely and cheaply.

[nett]

It would make a lot more sense to just accede to Russia than do this.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... llets.html