Roe and Guns

Things that are not part of politics happening presently and how we approach or address it as Anabaptists.
Ken
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Re: Roe and Guns

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Josh wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:51 pm Ken’s confidence in American military preparedness shows a kind of naïveté of someone who still thinks we have the greatness of the nation in 1969 or 1990 or whenever; in reality, we are a country right now missing its military recruitment goals by a rather long shot, whose military active and reserves are missing their PT targets, who just burned up most of their strategic energy stockpile, who can’t even empower an ally like Ukraine to actually win against Russia, and where a country occupied for decades like Afghanistan is now enthusiastically forging ties with China.

This is the same country which issues press releases about shipping Javelins to Ukraine but is mysteriously mute about its lack of capacity to ramp up production. (For reference, Ukraine is going through 500 a day and America produces a few thousand a year.) Before you tell me we can ramp up production, no, we can’t - we have a serious supply chain crisis which is getting worse, not better.

Wars run on energy, food, and credit. America has destroyed its energy production infrastructure, exports 25% of its oil gas (up from 5% a few years ago); food is more expensive than ever; and America is ruining its ability to raise cheap debt in global credit markets. In short, you don’t want to be depending on America to win a war right now.
Military might is always relative. It is always relative to whatever threats a country faces.

The US should not be engaging in ridiculous nation-building imperialist projects around the world. That was a mistake in Vietnam. It was a mistake in Iraq. It was a mistake in Somalia. It was a mistake in Afghanistan. And it will be a mistake the next time US troops are deployed to intervene in some international conflict.

That doesn't mean the US isn't supremely defended militarily. In addition to two oceans, it has enormous military resources. There are simply no other countries in the world that have anything close to the ability to invade and defeat the US in any sort of conventional war. Sure, China and Russia could blow up the world with their nuclear arsenals. But conduct a conventional invasion of the US mainland? Russia has no meaningful sealift and amphibious capacity. Their navy isn't designed for that and Russia has never fought a sea war and never conducted amphibious operations in any war. They barely know how to cross a river. Every war they have fought in the past century was basically a railroad war. China is more or less the same but presumably with more competence and resources. They are a massive continental power. But they don't have the infrastructure to project massive force across oceans. Which requires both naval and air superiority. By contrast, every war the US has fought in the past century was entirely amphibious. Virtually every bit of equipment used in WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. made at least part of its journey to the battlefield by sea or air. And they have been doing it more or less constantly for the past 80 years because we have more or less been in constant war somewhere in the world for the past 80 years. So the US navy does know what it is doing. The only countries with comparable naval traditions are the UK and Japan and they are both allies.

So yes, I don't think we are going to need to depend on a bunch of rednecks with their ARs to defend the American homeland any time soon.
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Only an Anz
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Re: Roe and Guns

Post by Only an Anz »

Ken wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 1:00 am
Only an Anz wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:19 pm
I still think you may find said podcast interesting:)
I subscribed to it. I'll listen on my next ride.
The first 3 episodes (from 2019) is mostly what I'm referring to. Episode 4 onward gets into more direct political action ideas which are probably beyond the scope of MN
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Re: Roe and Guns

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Ken wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 9:36 pm
Only an Anz wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 9:11 pm
Ken wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 9:04 pm

Oh sure. In some alternative universe if there was actually some sort of guerrilla resistance to foreign occupiers happening in the US they would be armed to the teeth with every sort of high-tech military weaponry because the immense stockpiles of military weapons at bases around the country would get opened up. We have enormous warehouses of stockpiled military arms spread all around the country.

It’s not going to be a bunch of random rednecks holding the line against a modern military using assorted civilian stuff they bought at Cabala’s. In other words, the safety and freedom of this country doesn’t depend in the slightest on a bunch of gun enthusiasts with their random collections of firearms.

I don't think an uprising is completely implausible. Unwise, yes. Don't know if you're a podcast person, but there's a couple fascinating ones on "It Could Happen Here" which talk about this.

Edit: there's some profanity in the podcast
Well they are two separate questions.

1. Is there the potential of an armed uprising of some sort happening in this country? Sure, possible. Most likely something like what happened with the Bundy's in Utah a few years ago or in Malheur OR with the son a couple of years later. Some sort of incident or protest sparks a bunch of fellow travelers showing up with their weapons. And then it is simply a question of with how much kid gloves the government is going to treat it. They tend to try to wait those sorts of things out after the experience of Waco, Ruby Ridge, etc. But if something really turns violent there is absolutely no question that the government has the resources to put anything down. But we are talking about a bunch of armed men occupying some sort of remote government installation somewhere and the government just waiting them out after they have shut off the power, water, internet, cellular communications, and food supply. We are not talking about a guerrilla army running amok across the country attacking military installations and such. People attempting that would just get gunned down or captured.

2. Is there the possibility of a foreign occupation of the US followed by some sort of violent partisan guerrilla movement. I think this is the stuff of fantasy and bad pulp fiction. At least in our lifetimes. The US may not be the strongest military everywhere on the the planet in terms of projection of force overseas. In other words, we would have a hard time conquering Beijing. But there is no other military with the long distance force projection capacity to even think about a military invasion of North America. The Chinese are a land army. They don't remotely have the sea lift capacity to sail an invasion fleet across the Pacific and invade California. They would get sunk to the bottom of the Pacific before they even got close. Russia is even weaker. They can't even sustain an invasion against a far weaker foe in their own backyard where they have railroads for supply lines leading directly back to their bases and factories. And neither Mexico nor Canada have even 1/100th of the military capacity it would take to even start to contemplate an invasion of the US.
A potential wild card here: National Guard. Recently, for example, the head of the Oklahoma National Guard basically just said "nope, I don't think so" about the vax mandate. Not trying to open THAT whole can of worms, but it makes one wonder if in scenario #1 some state's Guard would either refuse to shoot at people local to them, or just refuse to fight altogether. After all in 2020, individual members refused to go quell some riots.
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Robert
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Re: Roe and Guns

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Ken wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 1:22 am So yes, I don't think we are going to need to depend on a bunch of rednecks with their ARs to defend the American homeland any time soon.
I agree that is is unlikely, some because of the armed citizenry as a second phase to the massive military. WE would have a second civil war before an invasion.

If times have changed, then the 2nd amendment needs to be modified legally, not because a few think it should. It needs to have a new amendment, not courts doing this.

I would not downplay the rednecks. Look at J6. They were unarmed. I doubt they will be the next time. So is J6 an example of the dangerous rednecks or is it being overhyped? You can't have both.
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Ken
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Re: Roe and Guns

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Robert wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 11:23 am
Ken wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 1:22 am So yes, I don't think we are going to need to depend on a bunch of rednecks with their ARs to defend the American homeland any time soon.
I agree that is is unlikely, some because of the armed citizenry as a second phase to the massive military. WE would have a second civil war before an invasion.

If times have changed, then the 2nd amendment needs to be modified legally, not because a few think it should. It needs to have a new amendment, not courts doing this.

I would not downplay the rednecks. Look at J6. They were unarmed. I doubt they will be the next time. So is J6 an example of the dangerous rednecks or is it being overhyped? You can't have both.
What did I think of J6? I don't think it was remotely organic or spontaneous. think a whole lot of people were wound up tight and turned loose by a relentless campaign to undermine the election results by people at the very top of government. If our leaders choose to try the same thing again some day we could get similar results.

In other words, it wasn't the fact that a bunch of Proud Boys and Oath Keepers and others similar groups were armed or unarmed that caused J6. It was Trump and his associates that caused J6. I do expect that one consequence of J6 is that such groups will be watched much more closely than they might have been before. But take away Trump and none of that happens.

Would they have succeeded had they actually tried to shoot their way into the Capitol? No. But a whole bunch of them would be dead and a whole bunch more would be facing life sentences or even execution right now rather than 2 or 3-year sentences. And accomplices would be facing 20 to life.
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Robert
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Re: Roe and Guns

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Ken wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 11:39 am But take away Trump and none of that happens.
I think you totally misunderstand the culture and the people. Without Trump, a new head will arise. Trump did not create the movement, but became figurehead for it. The political class will ignore this and target Trump. He will fall and will become a martyr for the cause. It will then turn violent. The riots of 2020 will seem small soon. I hope I am wrong. The only thing that may stop it is a reset in 2022. If the right (not Republicans) takes the house and Senate, we may have some time. If not, there will be civil unrest. They will not take another election being stolen.

Many are not looking at the rage brewing. I see it daily. You all may not see it, but Trump may have stopped the civil war by helping to primary a lot of politicians out and help some real conservatives get elected. I hope he does not run in 2024. I think he will. I think he cares about his ego more than the country. I think most politicians in DC do also.

Trump did not cause the dissidence. He is a result of it. Remove him and it stays, but gets worse. It gets violent.
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Re: Roe and Guns

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Robert wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 11:56 am
Ken wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 11:39 am But take away Trump and none of that happens.
I think you totally misunderstand the culture and the people. Without Trump, a new head will arise. Trump did not create the movement, but became figurehead for it. The political class will ignore this and target Trump. He will fall and will become a martyr for the cause. It will then turn violent. The riots of 2020 will seem small soon. I hope I am wrong. The only thing that may stop it is a reset in 2022. If the right (not Republicans) takes the house and Senate, we may have some time. If not, there will be civil unrest. They will not take another election being stolen.

Many are not looking at the rage brewing. I see it daily. You all may not see it, but Trump may have stopped the civil war by helping to primary a lot of politicians out and help some real conservatives get elected. I hope he does not run in 2024. I think he will. I think he cares about his ego more than the country. I think most politicians in DC do also.

Trump did not cause the dissidence. He is a result of it. Remove him and it stays, but gets worse. It gets violent.
What makes you think that?
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Ken
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Re: Roe and Guns

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Robert wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 11:56 am
Ken wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 11:39 am But take away Trump and none of that happens.
I think you totally misunderstand the culture and the people. Without Trump, a new head will arise. Trump did not create the movement, but became figurehead for it. The political class will ignore this and target Trump. He will fall and will become a martyr for the cause. It will then turn violent. The riots of 2020 will seem small soon. I hope I am wrong. The only thing that may stop it is a reset in 2022. If the right (not Republicans) takes the house and Senate, we may have some time. If not, there will be civil unrest. They will not take another election being stolen.

Many are not looking at the rage brewing. I see it daily. You all may not see it, but Trump may have stopped the civil war by helping to primary a lot of politicians out and help some real conservatives get elected. I hope he does not run in 2024. I think he will. I think he cares about his ego more than the country. I think most politicians in DC do also.

Trump did not cause the dissidence. He is a result of it. Remove him and it stays, but gets worse. It gets violent.
Oh I see it. Here in my neck of the woods we have a big primary heating up to challenge Jaime Herrera Beutler, our local GOP Congresswoman who was one of the Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after 1/6. There are three Republicans running to her right. One is an well-known evangelical homeschooling advocate Heidi St. John: https://www.heidistjohnforcongress.com/. One is a former special forces soldier who basically carpet-bagged into the district from Oregon a few months ago and who has Trump's endorsement: https://joekentforcongress.com/ and one is a local mainstream Republican state representative who is looking to move up to Congress: https://vickikraft.com/ I don't think any of them will beat Jaime and her more threatening challenge will be from the local young Democratic woman who is gaining traction. I guess we will find out soon. The primary is coming up on August 2nd.

But I reject the notion that violence is the solution for those who don't get their way at the ballot box. Or that we in any way need to pander to those who threaten violence because they fail using democratic methods. Or that we are even looking at a civil war. What does that even mean? Who are they going to fight? Are they going to form militias to invade blue states? Attack the Federal government? Attack their neighbors? I don't see it. It looks more like a lot of hot air. And firearms aren't going to make such a movement more successful. It will make them less successful.

In any event, I really don't understand what they are enraged about.
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Re: Roe and Guns

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Ken wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 12:31 pm I really don't understand what they are enraged about.
No representation by either party.
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Re: Roe and Guns

Post by MaxPC »

Robert wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:54 am
No representation by either party.
Rage and gun violence is also found in the Left.
Street preacher encounters different level of rage
"The only reason we left," he explains, "is because the police officers heard something in the crowd and they said 'I suggest you guys leave. It's about to pop off.'"

Evidently, he explains, there were three "antifa-types" with guns who were ready to take shots at them.

Penkoski says in the years he's been doing street preaching it's never been this bad.

"They were threatening – you know, 'You're going to find out there's murders real soon.' They made gestures with her hands like guns, threatening violence, threatening to kill us … just some of the most disgusting, filthy things you can say to a person," he recalls.
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