Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[temporal1]

A simple fact is that Russia did not accomplish their stated goals within the original planned amount of time.
Obviously they are less successful then they were thought to be capable of.

At the same time, looking at the continued increase in aid of heavy weapons, training, money, supplies...
it suggests that the west is taking advantage of this and seeking to drag it out or to bring Russia down through it.

Its tactical, and it makes sense if you are the enemy of Russia.

i’m not sure there was much thought put into Russia ..
the Left-West is so preoccupied with self-adoration.

the underlined deserves sober contemplation.

[Josh]

A simple fact is that Russia did not accomplish their stated goals within the original planned amount of time. Obviously they are less successful then they were thought to be capable of. At the same time, looking at the continued increase in aid of heavy weapons, training, money, supplies... it suggests that the west is taking advantage of this and seeking to drag it out or to bring Russia down through it. Its tactical, and it makes sense if you are the enemy of Russia.

I definitely agree. Two enemies are about to lock themselves into total war.

[Josh]

A simple fact is that Russia did not accomplish their stated goals within the original planned amount of time. Obviously they are less successful then they were thought to be capable of. At the same time, looking at the continued increase in aid of heavy weapons, training, money, supplies... it suggests that the west is taking advantage of this and seeking to drag it out or to bring Russia down through it. Its tactical, and it makes sense if you are the enemy of Russia.

War is always unstable. Confident predictions often turn out to be false. Major powers often find themselves unable to quickly conquer much smaller countries.

Regardless, I don't see any way for this to turn out well for either Ukraine or Russia. And I think there are real dangers of this war spilling over into something bigger. Will Russia attack ships or facilities that are shipping weapons to Ukraine outside of the borders of Ukraine? Will the war spill over into Ukraine's neighbors? Or will supply lines in Russia be attacked? There are so many ways this could escalate.

This won’t turn out well for the West either.

Places like China and the non aligned world (Syria, Iran, India, the entirety of Africa, etc.) will be the winners.

[temporal1]

A simple fact is that Russia did not accomplish their stated goals within the original planned amount of time. Obviously they are less successful then they were thought to be capable of. At the same time, looking at the continued increase in aid of heavy weapons, training, money, supplies... it suggests that the west is taking advantage of this and seeking to drag it out or to bring Russia down through it.

Its tactical, and it makes sense if you are the enemy of Russia.

I definitely agree. Two enemies are about to lock themselves into total war.

In my view, the Left-West are bumbling fools outfitted with bull horns.
They are convinced their noisy flamboyant propaganda will prevail. (Lots of foolish voters have encouraged it.)

‘Way too influenced by hollywood.

[temporal1]

Biden’s asking for another $33 billion for Ukraine! Every arms dump deepens this thing. Discouraging
https://apple.news/A5ALY2AydQemPdVvMk7TVYw

Not a peace making mission.

US Speaker Pelosi meets Ukraine's Zelensky on unannounced visit to Kyiv
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2022 ... it-to-kyiv

[Szdfan]

One of the western pro-Kremlin apologists I read is Gilbert Doctorow. I think a lot of what Doctorow writes is ridiculous propaganda, but I think he accurately reflects what is being said in Russian media.

This report about Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russian External Intelligence (SVR), scares me:

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/04/28/ ... pril-2022/

According to SVR, Poland is coordinating this issue with the United States. The idea is to establish military and political control by Warsaw over the “its historic territories” which today fall within the boundaries of Ukraine. Poland would introduce its troops into the Western regions of the country under cover of a mission to “protect the territory from Russian aggression.” Eventually this would be expected to lead to a partition of Ukraine. The Poles would install a friendly government in the territory they control, ousting the Ukrainian nationalists.

We may take the possibility of a Polish move of its forces into the Western Ukraine as the kind of intervention that Vladimir Putin had in mind when he said yesterday to legislators gathered in St Petersburg that it would provoke a lightning fast counter blow by Russia. Meanwhile, a similar possible intervention by Romania in swallowing up Moldova and threatening to overrun the Russian separatist territory of Transnistria which is sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine, could also spark a powerful military response from Moscow.

Doctorow is correct that this part of Eastern Europe has historically been marked by war and conflict. Poland itself disappeared for 125 years until it was re-established by the Treaty of Versailles in 1919. I might be proven wrong but the idea that modern-day Poland and Romania wanting to take over Western Ukraine and Moldova is absurd.

What I find scary about this is that this may be an indicator that Russian media is laying the groundwork as dubious as it’s “denazification” claims for further military aggression in Western Ukraine and expanding it to Moldova. Both Poland and Romania are part of NATO — and moving NATO troops into Ukraine and Moldova would explode this escalating situation.

We’re in a very dangerous moment and things seem to be getting worse.

[Szdfan]

Here’s Reuters reporting on the allegations from Naryshkn. The piece points out that the allegations may be Russian misinformation intended to sow distrust between Warsaw and Kyiv.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-s ... 022-04-28/

[temporal1]

^^ Where you say “scary” i would use the word “dismal.” On all sides.
i hold the Left West, and esp the U.S., more accountable, because, you know, we’re just so much better-than.

NYT:
April 30, 2022, 1:33 p.m. ETApril 30, 2022
Matina Stevis-GridneffReporting from Brussels

”The E.U. is weighing a lengthy phase-out for Russian oil.”

The European Union will likely give its members until the end of 2022 to completely ban Russian oil imports, officials involved in the talks said Saturday.

The bloc has been mulling how to ban Russian oil without unleashing carnage on either the E.U. economies that depend on it or the global oil market. Such a move would send global oil prices up and affect not only European and American consumers, but also the most vulnerable people in the developing world.

The objective, said officials who are participating in intensified talks to finalize the measure by the end of next week, is to permit the global oil price to adjust to the new reality. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because negotiations were ongoing and they did not have clearance to brief journalists on the record.

Hungary and Slovakia are nearly entirely dependent on Russian oil imports and they will likely be given even longer than other members — past the end of the year — to phase out the fuel, according to the officials.

The E.U. on average gets a quarter of its oil every year from Russia, amounting to half of Russia’s oil exports. Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy, was getting more than a third of its oil from Russia at the start of the war, but has in the past few weeks cut that to 12 percent, its economy minister said this week.

Giving E.U. countries until the end of the year to completely cut off Russian oil will disappoint countries that want to see immediate, harsher measures against Russia, aimed at stopping the flow of E.U. money to Moscow’s war machine. A further delay for Hungary and Slovakia, however, is unlikely to have a large impact, given that the two countries are small and their imports of Russian oil — while important for them — make up a tiny part of Russia’s oil production.

European Commission officials leading the drafting of the new package of E.U. sanctions against Russia — the sixth since the invasion of Ukraine began on Feb. 24 — have been in talks with ambassadors from the bloc, relaying their governments’ preferences in Brussels since Friday afternoon.

Commission officials are expected to propose more specific contours for the oil embargo and other measures that will be included in the package, such as the sanctioning of Russia’s biggest bank, Sberbank, by midweek. Ambassadors will then meet on Wednesday and should have the new sanctions finalized by the end of the week, officials said.

No hint of anything outside fully protracted war in all aspects, military, economic, you name it.

Diplomacy: Unwanted.

March 2022 / “Russia to expel US diplomats in tit-for-tat move”
TASS news agency reports that the move comes after the US expelled 12 Russian diplomats from the UN mission in New York.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/2 ... r-tat-move

Dismal.

October 2021 / Congress moves toward requiring women to register for the draft
Democrats appear united in wanting the change, while Republicans are split
https://www.rollcall.com/2021/10/05/con ... the-draft/

.. But with Congress now entirely in Democratic hands, the likelihood that women will have to register has increased.

[Szdfan]

^^ Where you say “scary” i would use the word “dismal.” On all sides.
i hold the Left West, and esp the U.S., more accountable, because, you know, we’re just so much better-than.

NYT:
April 30, 2022, 1:33 p.m. ETApril 30, 2022
Matina Stevis-GridneffReporting from Brussels

”The E.U. is weighing a lengthy phase-out for Russian oil.”

The European Union will likely give its members until the end of 2022 to completely ban Russian oil imports, officials involved in the talks said Saturday.

The bloc has been mulling how to ban Russian oil without unleashing carnage on either the E.U. economies that depend on it or the global oil market. Such a move would send global oil prices up and affect not only European and American consumers, but also the most vulnerable people in the developing world.

The objective, said officials who are participating in intensified talks to finalize the measure by the end of next week, is to permit the global oil price to adjust to the new reality. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because negotiations were ongoing and they did not have clearance to brief journalists on the record.

Hungary and Slovakia are nearly entirely dependent on Russian oil imports and they will likely be given even longer than other members — past the end of the year — to phase out the fuel, according to the officials.

The E.U. on average gets a quarter of its oil every year from Russia, amounting to half of Russia’s oil exports. Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy, was getting more than a third of its oil from Russia at the start of the war, but has in the past few weeks cut that to 12 percent, its economy minister said this week.

Giving E.U. countries until the end of the year to completely cut off Russian oil will disappoint countries that want to see immediate, harsher measures against Russia, aimed at stopping the flow of E.U. money to Moscow’s war machine. A further delay for Hungary and Slovakia, however, is unlikely to have a large impact, given that the two countries are small and their imports of Russian oil — while important for them — make up a tiny part of Russia’s oil production.

European Commission officials leading the drafting of the new package of E.U. sanctions against Russia — the sixth since the invasion of Ukraine began on Feb. 24 — have been in talks with ambassadors from the bloc, relaying their governments’ preferences in Brussels since Friday afternoon.

Commission officials are expected to propose more specific contours for the oil embargo and other measures that will be included in the package, such as the sanctioning of Russia’s biggest bank, Sberbank, by midweek. Ambassadors will then meet on Wednesday and should have the new sanctions finalized by the end of the week, officials said.

No hint of anything outside fully protracted war in all aspects, military, economic, you name it.

Diplomacy: Unwanted.

March 2022 / “Russia to expel US diplomats in tit-for-tat move”
TASS news agency reports that the move comes after the US expelled 12 Russian diplomats from the UN mission in New York.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/2 ... r-tat-move

Dismal.

October 2021 / Congress moves toward requiring women to register for the draft
Democrats appear united in wanting the change, while Republicans are split
https://www.rollcall.com/2021/10/05/con ... the-draft/

.. But with Congress now entirely in Democratic hands, the likelihood that women will have to register has increased.

As I’ve said over and over, I think a negotiated peace (i.e. diplomacy) will largely be determined by the conditions on the ground. As long as both sides think they can win, there isn’t going to be a peace deal.

The possibility that this war move outside Ukraine and provoke WWIII is scary.

[temporal1]

As I’ve said over and over, I think a negotiated peace (i.e. diplomacy) will largely be determined by the conditions on the ground. As long as both sides think they can win, there isn’t going to be a peace deal.

The possibility that this war move outside Ukraine and provoke WWIII is scary.

Outside divine intervention, i could not use the word “peace” in this situation, i would be glad for tentative resolution.
The rhetoric and history on all sides prevents dreams of immediate peace.

WWIII is really up to the U.S.; biden-harris-pelosi are up for it. from their armchairs, anyway.
i don’t find it scary as much as dismal. and infuriating. my fears+prayers are replaced with growing disgust/anger.

The more talk ramps up, the more likely military volunteers will decline, then increased push for draft talk, females to register.

i hope Z is getting a good first-hand look at what he’s dealing with here. aged+incompetent legacy politicians.
are we destined to see this vibrant enthusiastic man become a grey haired depressed 80 year old championing a destroyed peoples+land, pawns between big boys? that’s what becomes of protracted wars/military conflicts.

DJT counseled Z to find a way to get along with Russia. wise counsel.

to pretend that Z is in control of anything is a stretch. he is in an untenable situation. he has no control, no way out.
he+Ukraine just happen to be in the wrong place. the Japanese resort to Seppuku.

Z could walk away and turn to God. God always offers His way, in every situation. As you know.