nett wrote: ↑Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:43 pm
The narrative continues to shift. Now the possibility of a Russian victory in The Ukraine is being discussed in the mainstream. What a wild shift from a few weeks when "Russian was almost out of supplies, and was a week away from being unable to continue the operation"
Correction: the Guardian’s headline is “Russia is suffering ‘colossal losses’, says Kiev”
They’re just quoting what Ukrainian government is saying. This is good journalism. The Guardian isn’t saying their reporters have personally witnessed colossal losses.
nett wrote: ↑Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:43 pm
The narrative continues to shift. Now the possibility of a Russian victory in The Ukraine is being discussed in the mainstream. What a wild shift from a few weeks when "Russian was almost out of supplies, and was a week away from being unable to continue the operation"
Correction: the Guardian’s headline is “Russia is suffering ‘colossal losses’, says Kiev”
They’re just quoting what Ukrainian government is saying. This is good journalism. The Guardian isn’t saying their reporters have personally witnessed colossal losses.
We are talking about "narratives" Nett posted up a nearly week-old article that supposedly showed a changing war narrative at the Guardian. I took a look at today's Guardian front page and that is the current "narrative" That the Russians are experiencing "colossal casualties" By some estimates the Russian casualties in Ukraine have now exceeded the combined casualties from 10 years of war in Afghanistan and 2 years of war in Chechnya.
Who knows what the actual truth is because Russia is deliberately obscuring its numbers or outright lying about them.
0 x
A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Correction: the Guardian’s headline is “Russia is suffering ‘colossal losses’, says Kiev”
They’re just quoting what Ukrainian government is saying. This is good journalism. The Guardian isn’t saying their reporters have personally witnessed colossal losses.
We are talking about "narratives" Nett posted up a nearly week-old article that supposedly showed a changing war narrative at the Guardian. I took a look at today's Guardian front page and that is the current "narrative" That the Russians are experiencing "colossal casualties" By some estimates the Russian casualties in Ukraine have now exceeded the combined casualties from 10 years of war in Afghanistan and 2 years of war in Chechnya.
Who knows what the actual truth is because Russia is deliberately obscuring its numbers or outright lying about them.
1) There's a lot of uncertainty in this war and the situation is frequently changing. I think the piece Nett linked to reflects that. There's no guarantee right now about who is going to win.
2) One opinion piece in one newspaper does not mean that the "narrative" has changed. To demonstrate that, one would have to show multiple pieces from multiple sources. I think there's a premature declaration of "the narrative is changing" going on.
3) To believe that it's all "narrative" means that nothing is real, everyone is lying, it's all BS. I can be pretty cynical, but I'm not that cynical.
I mean, Russia continues to take more and more ground, and 25% of Ukrainians have left their homes (according to CNN) in March; 13% are refugees (UNHCR, April) and another 18% are internally displaced (UN, April), so that means it's up to 31% now.
Many Ukrainians got the opportunity to resettle in the EU and be offered much better economic opportunities. Many of them will probably stay, just like how most refugees or economic migrants from Syria and other places ended up staying in (Western) European countries.
I'm just being realistic here. Much like how China is in very deep and can't walk back their "zero covid" stance, despite an absurd lockdown happening in Shanghai right now, Russia can't really walk back this invasion either. And they certainly have the capability to keep doing it. Ukraine government does not.
nett wrote: ↑Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:43 pm
The narrative continues to shift. Now the possibility of a Russian victory in The Ukraine is being discussed in the mainstream. What a wild shift from a few weeks when "Russian was almost out of supplies, and was a week away from being unable to continue the operation"
Weren't you one of the people saying Russia's economy was toast because of sanctions and that they couldn't survive without iPhones McDonalds, and Disney?
Meanwhile, the Ruble is fully recovered, and countries in Europe are either paying for gas in rubles, or their energy costs go up 25% in one day.
Szdfan wrote: ↑Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:59 pm
1) There's a lot of uncertainty in this war and the situation is frequently changing. I think the piece Nett linked to reflects that. There's no guarantee right now about who is going to win.
2) One opinion piece in one newspaper does not mean that the "narrative" has changed. To demonstrate that, one would have to show multiple pieces from multiple sources. I think there's a premature declaration of "the narrative is changing" going on.
3) To believe that it's all "narrative" means that nothing is real, everyone is lying, it's all BS. I can be pretty cynical, but I'm not that cynical.
That's not necessarily true. The best propaganda laces truth in with the fiction.
Even accepting uncertainty about who is going to win is a narrative shift. It seems like the west had solemnly predicted a Russian failure "within x days" pretty reliably up until 2 weeks ago. Yes you can find more reality based articles, but the what was pushed through the various propaganda channels was all very Ukraine positive, but that seems to have shifted.
I don't think everything is BS, or everyone is lying about everything, but I believe the narrative is 100% controlled at this point. and the stories that majority of people see are carefully curated based on their political preference. If you don't agree with that, I can provide some sources.
nett wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:58 am
That's not necessarily true. The best propaganda laces truth in with the fiction.
Even accepting uncertainty about who is going to win is a narrative shift. It seems like the west had solemnly predicted a Russian failure "within x days" pretty reliably up until 2 weeks ago. Yes you can find more reality based articles, but the what was pushed through the various propaganda channels was all very Ukraine positive, but that seems to have shifted.
I don't think everything is BS, or everyone is lying about everything, but I believe the narrative is 100% controlled at this point.
and the stories that majority of people see are carefully curated based on their political preference.
If you don't agree with that, I can provide some sources.
even a loose review of this topic supports your observation.
the mainstream is so effective in grooming consumers to have no memories, they then have no impediment to changing narratives, nor moral restraint for accountability (of any description or application).
possibly like dog training, it’s all about “now-now-now!” no tomorrow, no yesterday.
A simple fact is that Russia did not accomplish their stated goals within the original planned amount of time. Obviously they are less successful then they were thought to be capable of. At the same time, looking at the continued increase in aid of heavy weapons, training, money, supplies... it suggests that the west is taking advantage of this and seeking to drag it out or to bring Russia down through it. Its tactical, and it makes sense if you are the enemy of Russia.
Soloist wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:20 am
A simple fact is that Russia did not accomplish their stated goals within the original planned amount of time. Obviously they are less successful then they were thought to be capable of. At the same time, looking at the continued increase in aid of heavy weapons, training, money, supplies... it suggests that the west is taking advantage of this and seeking to drag it out or to bring Russia down through it. Its tactical, and it makes sense if you are the enemy of Russia.
War is always unstable. Confident predictions often turn out to be false. Major powers often find themselves unable to quickly conquer much smaller countries.
Regardless, I don't see any way for this to turn out well for either Ukraine or Russia. And I think there are real dangers of this war spilling over into something bigger. Will Russia attack ships or facilities that are shipping weapons to Ukraine outside of the borders of Ukraine? Will the war spill over into Ukraine's neighbors? Or will supply lines in Russia be attacked? There are so many ways this could escalate.
Bootstrap wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:36 am
War is always unstable. Confident predictions often turn out to be false. Major powers often find themselves unable to quickly conquer much smaller countries.
Regardless, I don't see any way for this to turn out well for either Ukraine or Russia. And I think there are real dangers of this war spilling over into something bigger. Will Russia attack ships or facilities that are shipping weapons to Ukraine outside of the borders of Ukraine? Will the war spill over into Ukraine's neighbors? Or will supply lines in Russia be attacked? There are so many ways this could escalate.
Well World war one the US used the sinking of the Lusitania as a major propaganda point... and years later... turns out the Germans were right that weapons were on the ship. It would be very surprising though if Russia engaged in anything on the sea... The US has far greater sea superiority. Now striking at ground or air based shipments? it would be logical.