Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Ken]

If, as seems possible, we wind up back essentially where we started with Crimea in Russian hands, the Donbass carved out as some sort of quasi-independent region, and the rest of Ukraine an independent west-leaning democracy. Then who is the winner and who is the loser in that result?

Arguably everyone is the loser because that was more or less where things were before the war started. So what even was the point?

Russia wins, since it no longer has a hostile client state of the U.S. next door, and Ukraine's potential as a military aggressor are nullified. And nobody else is going to want to repeat what happened to Ukraine. Thus Russia has the security assurances that it wanted in the first place.

If Russia takes the Donbass (or turns them into Russian client states), I would expect they will take most of the south shore as well (they already hold the land there). Taking over Odessa would be about as difficult as Crimea was 8 years ago. At that point, "Ukraine" is a landlocked "country" of resource-poor, cold, dry, and infertile patches of mountains in the West. I don't think Russia ever had a serious desire to take Kiev and certainly not the western oblasts like where Lvov is.

Nonsense.

After this war is over, Ukraine's military capacity will be hugely amplified relative to before the war. In modern war, the critical element is the human capacity as the equipment is readily and easily available. As we speak, Russia is currently training up the most competent and experienced military force on the European continent in the form of Ukraine. They will be orders of magnitude more competent, experienced, and professional as a result of this war than before. Just like the US trained up the Taliban.

In addition, NATO will have greatly increased its military spending and is adopting a much more forward posture into Central Europe than before. And formerly neutral countries like Finland and Sweden are close to joining NATO. Which will make Russia's position far weaker than before.

As for territorial issues? Russia has no legitimate claim to any of the southern shore of Ukraine and no Ukrainian delegation will negotiate that away. Settlement of the Crimea issue might be possible. And a possible referendum to determine independent status of the Donbass might be negotiable. But not a "land bridge" across to Crimea. If Russia wants to claim the entire Black Sea coastline then the war will never end but drag on for a decade. And the conflict will draw every renegade special ops soldier from around the world who is bored and wants to go to Ukraine to hunt Russians.

[Ken]

One can only imagine the potential for corruption and mismanagement for years on end in this kind of scenario.

One doesn't need to imagine; simply look at how Ukraine has been managed for the last decade to get an idea of the level of corruption and mismanagement possible.

If Ukraine as a whole ends up under Russian control, what has been destroyed likely won't get rebuilt.

Actually, Russia has invested huge amounts in Crimea. Most of what was in the Ukraine was only there because the USSR built it in the first place.

Russia actually ranks as more corrupt than Ukraine on every international ranking of corruption. And Ukraine's trendline is improving while Russia is worsening. For example: https://worldpopulationreview.com/count ... -countries

[Soloist]

After this war is over, Ukraine's military capacity will be hugely amplified relative to before the war. In modern war, the critical element is the human capacity as the equipment is readily and easily available. As we speak, Russia is currently training up the most competent and experienced military force on the European continent in the form of Ukraine. They will be orders of magnitude more competent, experienced, and professional as a result of this war than before. Just like the US trained up the Taliban.

In addition, NATO will have greatly increased its military spending and is adopting a much more forward posture into Central Europe than before. And formerly neutral countries like Finland and Sweden are close to joining NATO. Which will make Russia's position far weaker than before.

I think you have a distorted view of reality. Russia is struggling with their warfare. They are learning and will be more capable of modern warfare during the next war. Ukraine however does not have that flexibility and is primarily learning irregular warfare with decentralized infantry. The helicopter strike on Russia, the base those helicopters launched from likely was targeted by missiles and I doubt they will be used for that again. Helicopters take some serious structure to support and maintain... The Taliban never was able to maintain anything like that due to us destroying every structure identified as military. Also Ukraine learning to fight like the Taliban will lead to more war crimes...

Now in the past you have dismissed the idea of the draft as irrelevant as modern war is with highly trained individuals heavily supported by modern tech, I'm assuming that your views are changing. Also, some equipment is available like rifles, flack armor, helmets and grenades/launchers but your tanks, mobile anti-air, mobile rocket launching systems, any aircraft are not something the Taliban can support. The best trained infantry can be easily destroyed with the right weapons, war is very much a rock, paper, scissors thing... While perhaps the infantry can kick an occluding force out, they would be better served not trying to actually attack Russia in Russia as they do not have the means or capacity to wage effective war outside of their own country.

[Ken]

After this war is over, Ukraine's military capacity will be hugely amplified relative to before the war. In modern war, the critical element is the human capacity as the equipment is readily and easily available. As we speak, Russia is currently training up the most competent and experienced military force on the European continent in the form of Ukraine. They will be orders of magnitude more competent, experienced, and professional as a result of this war than before. Just like the US trained up the Taliban.

In addition, NATO will have greatly increased its military spending and is adopting a much more forward posture into Central Europe than before. And formerly neutral countries like Finland and Sweden are close to joining NATO. Which will make Russia's position far weaker than before.

I think you have a distorted view of reality. Russia is struggling with their warfare. They are learning and will be more capable of modern warfare during the next war. Ukraine however does not have that flexibility and is primarily learning irregular warfare with decentralized infantry. The helicopter strike on Russia, the base those helicopters launched from likely was targeted by missiles and I doubt they will be used for that again. Helicopters take some serious structure to support and maintain... The Taliban never was able to maintain anything like that due to us destroying every structure identified as military. Also Ukraine learning to fight like the Taliban will lead to more war crimes...

Now in the past you have dismissed the idea of the draft as irrelevant as modern war is with highly trained individuals heavily supported by modern tech, I'm assuming that your views are changing. Also, some equipment is available like rifles, flack armor, helmets and grenades/launchers but your tanks, mobile anti-air, mobile rocket launching systems, any aircraft are not something the Taliban can support. The best trained infantry can be easily destroyed with the right weapons, war is very much a rock, paper, scissors thing... While perhaps the infantry can kick an occluding force out, they would be better served not trying to actually attack Russia in Russia as they do not have the means or capacity to wage effective war outside of their own country.

You miss my point.

Assuming an independent Ukraine is still standing after this war and that seems exceedingly likely today. Then that independent Ukraine will have a far more professional army than before, will likely have far higher military spending than before, and will likely have a far better sense of what it needs to defend the country than before. They may or may not also have a military draft. But they will certainly have no more illusions about Russia or the need for a robust military. They may not ever actually join NATO. And if they don't (as seems likely) then they will probably wind up with far higher military spending than if they had. Sort of like Israel. There will certainly be plenty of arms suppliers from around the world willing and ready to sell them whatever arms they want. And there will probably be lots of western aid available for purchasing said arms.

Sure, Russia is also learning from this war. But not as much as Ukraine is.

[Soloist]

You miss my point.

Assuming an independent Ukraine is still standing after this war and that seems exceedingly likely today. Then that independent Ukraine will have a far more professional army than before, will likely have far higher military spending than before, and will likely have a far better sense of what it needs to defend the country than before. They may or may not also have a military draft. But they will certainly have no more illusions about Russia or the need for a robust military. They may not ever actually join NATO. And if they don't (as seems likely) then they will probably wind up with far higher military spending than if they had. Sort of like Israel. There will certainly be plenty of arms suppliers from around the world willing and ready to sell them whatever arms they want. And there will probably be lots of western aid available for purchasing said arms.

Sure, Russia is also learning from this war. But not as much as Ukraine is.

If Ukraine remains independent, they will increase their military spending unless somehow the treaty they eventually end up signing caps that. They already have a draft, I suspect highly mandatory military will be in place following this war. NATO likely is a deal breaker, it will be interesting how the politics of the Ukrainian political system ends up working, if he signs a treaty that makes him look weak, he will likely lose in the next election. At the same time, if Russia walks away without something I would be even more surprised. Russia will only back down if they can save face in someway and walk away with a political win.

Your last sentence is naive. Russia and Ukraine are both learning. Russia is learning massive amounts of information about extended supply lines, defending critical routes, effective use of armor, effective missile tactics, counter infantry tactics and on and on.
Ukraine is learning how to conceal military assets, utilize robust dispersed communication grids, guerrilla warfare, supporting irregular infantry forces, hit and run tactics and so on. Both sides are learning different things but to say one force is learning more is a very bias and western propaganda way of thinking.

[temporal1]

Switzerland
https://www.ch.ch/en/safety-and-justice ... y-service/

Military service
Every Swiss man is required to serve in the military or in the alternative civilian service.
In most cases, the military service obligation applies from age 18 to 30.

“The Swabian War of 1499: 500 Years Since Switzerland's Last War of Independence”
https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/cgi/vie ... ext=facpub

We visited friends in Switzerland in the late 1980’s.
One of the first unexpected things we noticed was a lot of gunfire. We didn’t see guns. We heard them.

Our friends were nonchalant, “o. that’s just the military practicing.” all-the-time.

Personally, i don’t care much about how much is spent on militaries. The least used is best.
It becomes part of the economy.

Switzerland offers alternative civilian service.

For Ukraine to be neutral, i expect they will need a significant military, well trained, for deterrence purposes.
“Neutral” does not mean unarmed, unprepared.

[Ken]

Your last sentence is naive. Russia and Ukraine are both learning. Russia is learning massive amounts of information about extended supply lines, defending critical routes, effective use of armor, effective missile tactics, counter infantry tactics and on and on. Ukraine is learning how to conceal military assets, utilize robust dispersed communication grids, guerrilla warfare, supporting irregular infantry forces, hit and run tactics and so on. Both sides are learning different things but to say one force is learning more is a very bias and western propaganda way of thinking.

I don't think it is naïve. Ukraine is fighting for its survival. Russia is fighting for...??

Russia has an ossified military bureaucracy. To demonstrate learning they would need to restructure their entire military bureaucracy. Which isn't happening.

Look at the example of the US in Afghanistan. The Taliban certainly learned a lot. But did the US military actually learn anything meaningful? From what I can see they basically kept doing the same thing for 20 years and didn't learn a thing. They poured endless money and arms into the country, propped up a corrupt government, kept trying futilely to prop up a corrupt and listless Afghan army. Which utterly collapsed in days when asked to stand on their own despite 20 years of American open checkbooks and endless support. I expect the next time the US embarks on some sort of "nation building" exercise they will have learned nothing from Afghanistan. Just like they learned nothing from their nation-building attempts in Vietnam and Iraq.

I would submit that the Russians in Ukraine are more like the Americans in Afghanistan. It isn't an existential war for them. Certainly nothing important enough to generate a top-to-bottom reform and restructuring which would disrupt all the corruption. I read an interesting thread recently about Russian logistics and how western militaries are surprised at the lack of containers and pallets for handling materials. Everything is packed into trucks by hand and unloaded by hand compared to the US Army which uses containerized trucks and pallets almost exclusively. So everything takes 5x longer and 5x more labor and is more dangerous. It turns out that isn't just being backwards. It is deliberate. Because loose loads are far easier to skim for the black market than sealed containers and sealed pallets. And everyone up and down the chain of command is apparently skimming.

[ohio jones]

Here is a perspective from an American who until recently lived in Russia:

Understanding the War in Ukraine

[Soloist]

I don't think it is naïve. Ukraine is fighting for its survival. Russia is fighting for...??

Russia has an ossified military bureaucracy. To demonstrate learning they would need to restructure their entire military bureaucracy. Which isn't happening.

Look at the example of the US in Afghanistan. The Taliban certainly learned a lot. But did the US military actually learn anything meaningful? From what I can see they basically kept doing the same thing for 20 years and didn't learn a thing. They poured endless money and arms into the country, propped up a corrupt government, kept trying futilely to prop up a corrupt and listless Afghan army. Which utterly collapsed in days when asked to stand on their own despite 20 years of American open checkbooks and endless support. I expect the next time the US embarks on some sort of "nation building" exercise they will have learned nothing from Afghanistan. Just like they learned nothing from their nation-building attempts in Vietnam and Iraq.

I would submit that the Russians in Ukraine are more like the Americans in Afghanistan. It isn't an existential war for them. Certainly nothing important enough to generate a top-to-bottom reform and restructuring which would disrupt all the corruption. I read an interesting thread recently about Russian logistics and how western militaries are surprised at the lack of containers and pallets for handling materials. Everything is packed into trucks by hand and unloaded by hand compared to the US Army which uses containerized trucks and pallets almost exclusively. So everything takes 5x longer and 5x more labor and is more dangerous. It turns out that isn't just being backwards. It is deliberate. Because loose loads are far easier to skim for the black market than sealed containers and sealed pallets. And everyone up and down the chain of command is apparently skimming.

Always present in a military is corruption and people who fail to learn. The bottom officers, the ones actually running combat learn quite a bit and often end up in the Academies teaching the future military leaders. Russia can't both be being annihilated and losing horribly without having it be an existential war for them. I'm not suggesting any reform is going to happen, but the people actually making the battle field calls are gaining knowledge that cannot be hand waved away. As for America, you would be surprised at the number of tactics we developed for counter terrorism. For example, burner phones are not able to actually conceal the user. I can't really go into it, but its not a way to avoid a bomb dropped on your house.
These tactics came from a long messy war and likewise the Taliban developed some. No longer could they fire 3 shots with the mortar and then move, we can zero in on them after the first shot. I would agree that the political leaders learned nothing from the war in Afghanistan, but the military learned. The problem was that the military had its hands tied by greed through contractors and such... The same critical problem the Russians are having was much much worse for the Afghans. All of their high tech weapon equipment was maintained and ran by contractors who fled when war broke out... Pretty hard to repair a tank if you don't know how.
Just don't conflate the military politics with civilian politics. They both have their problems but the military isn't calling the shots on many structural design flaws of a modern force. You should see how many of our military rates/MOS are being farmed out to contractors and our "great" military training is being consolidated and ran by civilians.

[Szdfan]

Here is a perspective from an American who until recently lived in Russia:

Understanding the War in Ukraine

This is a good piece from Harley that captures some of the complexity between Russian and Ukrainian Christians. What a broken, horrible mess.