Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[mike]

I'm not Ken, but I think that Russia is trying to limit civilian casualties. I think the West is doing their best to magnify the "collateral damage". To what extent will they avoid certain operations because of civilian casualties is yet to be determined. I expect their restraint will decline as time goes on.

I would tend to agree. But if this is the case, then the international community should be pushing for Ukraine to do what it needs to do to end the fighting, instead of basically cheering them on from the sidelines. That is, if the international community actually cares about civilians lives.

If Russia decides to go for air superiority, a lot more lives will be lost, I really hope it doesn't come to that.

A lot really depends on who wins the war. And there was never much doubt that it would be Russia. But what will they actually have once they have gained control over Ukraine? What will eastern Europe look like with a Russian victory here?

[nett]

A lot really depends on who wins the war. And there was never much doubt that it would be Russia. But what will they actually have once they have gained control over Ukraine? What will eastern Europe look like with a Russian victory here?

If everyone knows it's going to be Russia, what is the point in continuing to fight?

[mike]

A lot really depends on who wins the war. And there was never much doubt that it would be Russia. But what will they actually have once they have gained control over Ukraine? What will eastern Europe look like with a Russian victory here?

If everyone knows it's going to be Russia, what is the point in continuing to fight?

A couple of possibilities:

Ukraine thinks it actually has a chance of changing the outcome.
What Ukraine would become with a Russian victory is so unconscionable that Ukrainians feel it is worth dying in the effort.
Like Putin, the Ukrainian leadership basically has no honorable offramp. They are all in.

Do you have any thoughts on my questions though? What will eastern Europe look like if/when Russia takes over Ukraine?

[Ken]

A lot really depends on who wins the war. And there was never much doubt that it would be Russia. But what will they actually have once they have gained control over Ukraine? What will eastern Europe look like with a Russian victory here?

If everyone knows it's going to be Russia, what is the point in continuing to fight?

What in your mind does a Russian "win" look like?

The US has actually been at war in some form for most of its history but hasn't actually "won" a major war of any kind since WW2. So I'm curious what you think "winning" is going to look like for the Russians. The last time the Russians engaged in a war of this size was Afghanistan and they lost that one too. Chechnya which they arguably "won" after a brutal 2-years of death and destruction and over 7,500 Russian deaths is about the size of Connecticut and has a population of about 1.5 million so about 30x smaller than Ukraine.

[nett]

A lot really depends on who wins the war. And there was never much doubt that it would be Russia. But what will they actually have once they have gained control over Ukraine? What will eastern Europe look like with a Russian victory here?

If everyone knows it's going to be Russia, what is the point in continuing to fight?

A couple of possibilities:

Ukraine thinks it actually has a chance of changing the outcome.
What Ukraine would become with a Russian victory is so unconscionable that Ukrainians feel it is worth dying in the effort.
Like Putin, the Ukrainian leadership basically has no honorable offramp. They are all in.

Do you have any thoughts on my questions though? What will eastern Europe look like if/when Russia takes over Ukraine?

If Crimea is any indicator, Ukraine would be better off under Russian control. Russia poured a massive amount of resources into mending Crimean infrastructure, despite the Ukraine cutting off their water supply.

I don't know if that's a good indicator for what things in Ukraine would look like.

Generally, I do not believe Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet empire, all available analysis of his ideology suggest otherwise, and this is why he was the preferred candidate by the west when he was installed. He does however seem to be very concerned about where Russia factors in to the global balance power, and he has not been satisfied with that for some time.

I think the last 70 years of relative peace in Europe have been a mirage, the European Union is mostly a fantasy of the elite that is predicated on cheap energy.

Once cheap energy is no longer available, Europe will be back to constant war just like they've always been. Russia is definitely a factor in cheap energy running out, but I'm not 100% sure how the mechanics of that are going to work.

[nett]

A lot really depends on who wins the war. And there was never much doubt that it would be Russia. But what will they actually have once they have gained control over Ukraine? What will eastern Europe look like with a Russian victory here?

If everyone knows it's going to be Russia, what is the point in continuing to fight?

What in your mind does a Russian "win" look like?

The US has actually been at war in some form for most of its history but hasn't actually "won" a major war of any kind since WW2. So I'm curious what you think "winning" is going to look like for the Russians. The last time the Russians engaged in a war of this size was Afghanistan and they lost that one too. Chechnya which they arguably "won" after a brutal 2-years of death and destruction and over 7,500 Russian deaths is about the size of Connecticut and has a population of about 1.5 million so about 30x smaller than Ukraine.

I don't really know. They definitely "won" with Crimea, but I don't think they can spare the resources to repeat that in The Ukraine, unless the majority of Ukrainians support being annexed.

I think there is a real possibility that this entire "operation" was to distract from the COVID policy failures in Russia. Sputnik developed amounted to direct human experimentation, and it was not effective. Russians are not happy about the last two years at all.

[mike]

I guess somebody should tell 2 million Ukrainian refugees that there is no point in their having left the country. Collateral damage is being exaggerated and Russian rule is going to be great.

[nett]

I guess somebody should tell 2 million Ukrainian refugees that there is no point in their having left the country. Collateral damage is being exaggerated and Russian rule is going to be great.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. I said I don't know what the Ukraine would look like under Russian control, but the population of Crimea overwhelming prefers being under Russia vs The Ukraine.

Do you think it's possible that some Ukrainians panicked because of the exaggerations? Ukrainians have been subjected to a massive amount of misinformation. The most obvious one being "The Russians are coming to level your city ANY MINUTE NOW" However, no cities have been leveled yet.

[RZehr]

I guess somebody should tell 2 million Ukrainian refugees that there is no point in their having left the country. Collateral damage is being exaggerated and Russian rule is going to be great.

I would have left about as soon as Russia crossed the border. I’m not saying anyone was dumb for leaving. The danger is very real. I also think the western media is making hay with the damage and danger that is there. They certainly aren’t neutral and nor are they minimizing the damage and danger.

[Dan Z]

I guess somebody should tell 2 million Ukrainian refugees that there is no point in their having left the country. Collateral damage is being exaggerated and Russian rule is going to be great.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. I said I don't know what the Ukraine would look like under Russian control, but the population of Crimea overwhelming prefers being under Russia vs The Ukraine.

Do you think it's possible that some Ukrainians panicked because of the exaggerations? Ukrainians have been subjected to a massive amount of misinformation. The most obvious one being "The Russians are coming to level your city ANY MINUTE NOW" However, no cities have been leveled yet.

I have no way of knowing for sure the extent of the damage thus far...but from the photos and testimonials I've seen and heard, and from the extent of the exodus, things are looking pretty decimated to me in some parts of Ukraine (e.g. Kyiv, Mariupol, Kharkiv).

Actually, I suspect, from your comments and perspectives, that we are looking to different information sources.