Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[mike]

Won’t hurt Russia. Plenty of other people want to buy oil - particularly when it’s this expensive, they’ll be glad to buy Russian oil.

Sure, maybe so.

From a WSJ interview yesterday:

Well, I don't think it's really going to hurt Mr. Putin much. US consumption or Russian oil only makes up about 3% of US consumption, less than 10% of Russia's oil exports. Overall, oil and gas make up 50% of Russia's budget, which is huge. Putin cannot finance his war on Ukraine without the oil and gas sales. That said, US again, is just a drop in the bucket. What you really need is larger, broader sanctions on Russian energy sales, and that would involve not just Europe, but also Asia. Because as Blinken said, oil and gas, it's a global market. And without a global response, you're not going to get... Energy or oil prices are going to continue to be high, which is going to continue to benefit Putin's budget.

At the same time, Finely said later in the interview,

I think that's right. As you said, some of it, it's already baked into the price, about 70% and probably now more of Russian crude exports are quote unquote self sanctioned, of traders just are['nt] buying it because of the risk of sanctions or other insurance costs or difficulties or logistics in getting it delivered because of other sanctions. So a lot of it's already off limits right now.

So no, a US embargo won't break Russia's back. But I would argue that it does put increased pressure on them. Some people that normally would buy Russian crude aren't buying it now, with or without the sanctions.

I think that the reasons for a US embargo are not entirely economic, but also moralistic, to condemn the Russian invasion. I think public opinion in the US is largely against the invasion, to the extent that many US consumers are willing to pay more at the pump if they have to. Maybe the administration welcomes this situation as a scapegoat on which they can blame rising energy prices, where before the blame has frequently been placed on Biden's energy policy.

[temporal1]

Russia's demands

Only one of those would be a change of how things are in practicality and perfectly fitting with the goal of a buffer against NATO.

That's hopeful...on Russia's part, the war would have been a personally and monitarily expensive way to get these concessions.

How should Russia have tried to get these concessions?

nett’s question is valid.

i think, and hope, these “demands” will be an effective starting place to workable agreement.
if+when agreed, it will take time to build mutual respect+trust, but i hope that will be the goal of both sides.

it should have been from the 1990’s.

as long as it’s “he made me do it!” on both sides, it will be circular.
an important question is, why would anyone want “circular?” (follow the money. don’t overlook hidden motivations.)

people LOVE to get their way - even better when they can do it under the radar while blaming others. $$$$

[Jazman]

I don't know if this, They made desert and called it peace is behind a paywall... if you can read it, I suspect they're largely correct. To my mind it's bewildering that Putin seems to have not considered recent history... (Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam... to name a few) Maybe he's like a wannabe-acolyte we're all familiar with... he doesn't read anything, except his own output...

[nett]

Russia basically is trying to make itself great again

And they are trying to do it with a GDP that is less than Canada's or Italy's. On a per-capita basis, their GDP is below Turkey, Khazakhstan, Croatia or Romania.

Yes, Russia is basically on par with Mexico in terms of both population and GDP.

Both Texas and Canada have higher GDPs than Russia. The UK is about double. And the US is maybe 10x larger.

We are no longer in the days of the Warsaw Pact when the USSR plus its Eastern European allies was over 350 million and had immense armies and economies. Russia alone is about 140 million people compared to more like 700 million for NATO. And the GDP of the NATO countries is maybe 30x that of Russia. It is no wonder that they are feeling like a declining power. Because it is entirely true. But on the other hand, they are running a corrupt klepto-state in which trillions of dollars of wealth are extracted by oligarchs and hidden in the west rather than being invested productively within Russia. So it is partly or mostly their fault that they are not keeping up with the west.

This is how NATO and Russia currently compare in terms of military strength. And when we are comparing apples to apples, the NATO stuff (warplanes, ships, submarines, etc. are mostly better than what Russia has). And the comparison of economic strength is far more lopsided. The only thing they have more of is nuclear weapons. It isn’t an exact equivalent because much of the US military force is located in the Pacific and geared towards Asia. So the portion that is in Europe balanced against Russia is only a portion of what is in that table. But still, it is pretty unequal. Especially compared to the Warsaw Pact days of the 1970s and 1980s when the balance of forces was much more equal and often tilted in favor of the USSR.

Some trust in chariots, and some in horses: but we will remember the name of the LORD our God.

[temporal1]

I don't know if this, They made desert and called it peace is behind a paywall... if you can read it, I suspect they're largely correct. To my mind it's bewildering that Putin seems to have not considered recent history... (Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam... to name a few) Maybe he's like a wannabe-acolyte we're all familiar with... he doesn't read anything, except his own output...

i could read it. it ends with:

.. but not as expensive as controlling a zone of internal rebellion, armed to the teeth by its many foreign partners and on the lookout for any Russian vulnerability. Such an effort would drain Russia’s treasury.

in honesty, Ukraine is being exploited by both sides. its location tempts it.
“with friends like these, who needs enemies?”

“nationalism is bad” seems to have been traded for, “Ukrainian nationalism is the best.”

i’m not sure this is about Ukraine, at all. it’s East meets West - Ukraine is the unfortunate venue.

[Josh]

“nationalism is bad” seems to have been traded for, “Ukrainian nationalism is the best.”

i’m not sure this is about Ukraine, at all. it’s East meets West - Ukraine is the unfortunate venue.

Particularly concerning is how Ukrainian nationalism is being so widely accepted, neo-Nazis and all. I don't think formal neo-Nazis in the formal military is a particularly good thing, with neo-Nazi.

Overall, I'm not sure I'd agree with Bootstrap that "Americans are willing to accept $6/gal gas because we are taking a strong moral stance". How high should it go? $12? $20? Prices are shooting up and have no end in sight. This is going to crash our economy.

[Bootstrap]

Ukrainians believe they have a right to exist, in their country, with their language and culture. They seem to be willing to sacrifice a lot for that.

Ukraine is a country where people live, not merely some pawn in a global chess match.

[Bootstrap]

Particularly concerning is how Ukrainian nationalism is being so widely accepted, neo-Nazis and all. I don't think formal neo-Nazis in the formal military is a particularly good thing, with neo-Nazi.

Wait, believing they have a right to live in their own country is now called "nationalism" and it's related to being a neo-Nazi? Seriously?

You seem to believe Ukranians have no right to exist unless Putin gives them permission. That's not how they see it. Seems like a strange position for a Mennonite to take. Do Mennonites now defend warmongers against those who sympathize with their victims?

Overall, I'm not sure I'd agree with Bootstrap that "Americans are willing to accept $6/gal gas because we are taking a strong moral stance".

Josh, I have no idea what Americans are willing to accept, and I didn't say that. But I don't think gas prices are the most important moral concern here.

To me, the atrocities that Russia is committing in Ukraine are morally unacceptable. You seem to find them OK because you do not believe Ukranians have a right to their language, culture, or country. We disagree strongly about that.

[Josh]

Ukrainians believe they have a right to exist, in their country, with their language and culture. They seem to be willing to sacrifice a lot for that.

Ukraine is a country where people live, not merely some pawn in a global chess match.

So do the people in Donetsk, Crimea, and Luhansk.

As kingdom Christians, how exactly are we supposed to solve such conflicts? Do we have to decide who is the "right" side?

[nett]

Particularly concerning is how Ukrainian nationalism is being so widely accepted, neo-Nazis and all. I don't think formal neo-Nazis in the formal military is a particularly good thing, with neo-Nazi.

Wait, believing they have a right to live in their own country is now called "nationalism" and it's related to being a neo-Nazi? Seriously?

You seem to believe Ukranians have no right to exist unless Putin gives them permission. That's not how they see it. Seems like a strange position for a Mennonite to take. Do Mennonites now defend warmongers against those who sympathize with their victims?

Overall, I'm not sure I'd agree with Bootstrap that "Americans are willing to accept $6/gal gas because we are taking a strong moral stance".

Josh, I have no idea what Americans are willing to accept, and I didn't say that. But I don't think gas prices are the most important moral concern here.

To me, the atrocities that Russia is committing in Ukraine are morally unacceptable. You seem to find them OK because you do not believe Ukranians have a right to their language, culture, or country. We disagree strongly about that.

Boot, does the Asov Battalion deserve to have their own neo-nazi country too?