Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Jazman]

I really have no idea what the West is thinking here. They can’t win a hot war with Russia, but we can all lose. If they decide to go all in on this - well, China, India, and Brazil have made it very clear they are not aligned with the West.

We have a lot to lose here.

Josh, as I read through your postings here and the obvious counter-narrative you believe and want to propagate here... I'm curious... the only places I've heard this kind of pro Putin rhetoric being reported to have come from, is figures like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, kind-of Trump? or extreme figures like Nick Fuentes... My understanding is you're a much plainer Menno/Anabaptist than myself with obvious boundaries on media content, yet it seems you're watching-listening to their media...a lot. Do you watch Tucker Carlson or listen to Bannon's podcast/radio show? I'm curious... it's odd, isn't it?

(Notes to consider in relation to this: I deliberately chose pro-Putin vs pro-Russian. My heart goes out to the Russian people... I'm pro-them because I believe many and possibly growing numbers are seeing the ill this means for them too...) Secondly, I'll reiterate as I said/implied in an earlier posting... just because I sympathize more with Ukraine or consider Putin to be the worst aggressor here, DOES NOT mean I think the West is blameless... or that I support everything they have done or will do...

[Ken]

I really have no idea what the West is thinking here. They can’t win a hot war with Russia, but we can all lose. If they decide to go all in on this - well, China, India, and Brazil have made it very clear they are not aligned with the West.

We have a lot to lose here.

I've learned a lot of interesting things here on MennoNet.

I've learned that ordinary common-sense public health measures in the face of a deadly pandemic are (1) creeping totalitarianism, (2) the mark of the beast, and (3) to be resisted at all cost. While the largest invading army in Europe since WW2, bent on eradication of an entire culture and assimilation/persecution of an entire people is just "Putin saving face" or "understandable de-Nazification" or "justified regime change" other such nonsense.

I've also learned that Canadian truck drivers throwing a national tantrum about masking and vaccine requirements are "freedom fighters" and national heroes to be cheered. But Ukrainians who are literally defending their right to exist as an independent nation are either Nazis, NATO pawns, or advised to just lay down their arms and decide not to fight.

I've also learned that this war is NATO's fault and NATO is the reason why Russia decided to invade a sovereign non-NATO country. As if Russia and Putin have no agency in the matter. Noting of course that NATO is not some independent state entity like the USSR. It is simply a mutual defense alliance, nothing more.

And apparently the west is helpless against aggression from a declining and utterly corrupt petro-state with a population and economy that is barely larger than Mexico.

[Josh]

Josh, as I read through your postings here and the obvious counter-narrative you believe and want to propagate here... I'm curious... the only places I've heard this kind of pro Putin rhetoric being reported to have come from, is figures like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, kind-of Trump? or extreme figures like Nick Fuentes... My understanding is you're a much plainer Menno/Anabaptist than myself with obvious boundaries on media content, yet it seems you're watching-listening to their media...a lot. Do you watch Tucker Carlson or listen to Bannon's podcast/radio show? I'm curious... it's odd, isn't it?

I don't watch TV news / streaming media news, Fox News, or browse social media news channels on Telegram or places like Facebook.

Chances are that I read some of the same source material that they do, but much of my thinking on this has been shaped from authors like Matt Taibbi, Glenn Greenwald, and magazines like The Intercept.

(Notes to consider in relation to this: I deliberately chose pro-Putin vs pro-Russian. My heart goes out to the Russian people... I'm pro-them because I believe many and possibly growing numbers are seeing the ill this means for them too...) Secondly, I'll reiterate as I said/implied in an earlier posting... just because I sympathize more with Ukraine or consider Putin to be the worst aggressor here, DOES NOT mean I think the West is blameless... or that I support everything they have done or will do...

I find the idea of saying "my heart goes out to the Russian people" combined with being anti-Putin a bit disingenuous when Putin's party wins with very big majorities - indeed, Putin got installed in power because he promised to beat down the oligarchs; Russia's oligarchy was a lot worse in the days of Yeltsin. For a bit of perspective, too, Putin was original a darling of the West and they went to some effort to see to it he was installed.

If I were Russian, I'd probably be beating the anti-war drums over there, but I'm not Russian and not in a place to comment on their internal politics. I feel there is a distinct lack of *any* anti-war witness over here in the West. Nobody has talked at all about the nonstop shelling of Donetsk and Luhansk from Ukrainian partisans, nobody talks much about the clear problems with Ukrainian nationalists (including the neo-Nazi component), instead it's just endless depictions in Western media and the Western consciousness of the inherent "goodness" of Ukraine, the inherent "evilness" of Russia, and inherent noble obligation of the West to do the noble act of shipping massive amounts of arms to a conflict zone.

[Josh]

I've learned that ordinary common-sense public health measures in the face of a deadly pandemic are (1) creeping totalitarianism, (2) the mark of the beast, and (3) to be resisted at all cost.

Yes, and I strongly disagree with Putin's Russia implementing these kind of draconian "public health" measures, alongside promotion of mass vaccination.

While the largest invading army in Europe since WW2, bent on eradication of an entire culture and assimilation/persecution of an entire people is just "Putin saving face" or "understandable de-Nazification" or "justified regime change" other such nonsense.

That is completely ridiculous, Ken. "Ukraine" is not some culture independent of Russia. It is part and parcel a part of Russian culture and people and always has been, going back for millennia.

I've also learned that Canadian truck drivers throwing a national tantrum about masking and vaccine requirements are "freedom fighters" and national heroes to be cheered.

Yes, just as I think anti-war protesters in Russia should have been allowed to protest and not be rounded up and arrested. (The same way I would feel about the 1/6 protesters.)

But Ukrainians who are literally defending their right to exist as an independent nation are either Nazis, NATO pawns, or advised to just lay down their arms and decide not to fight.

No, Ukraine is not defending that. Russia is defending its right not to have NATO install client states right on its borders. That should be a pretty obvious one. And Russia is defending the rights of the Luhansk and Donetsk people to self-determination.

They are literally defending their right to exist as independent nations. Tell me, Ken, do you think the people of Transnistria, Abkhazia, Artsakh, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Palestine should have a right to exist as independent nations and retain their peoplehood? Or should they just be swallowed up into whatever the nearest Western-aligned neighbour is?

I've also learned that this war is NATO's fault and NATO is the reason why Russia decided to invade a sovereign non-NATO country. As if Russia and Putin have no agency in the matter. Noting of course that NATO is not some independent state entity like the USSR. It is simply a mutual defense alliance, nothing more.

NATO exists in order to be a threat to Russia and "contain" Russia from a military perspective. Tell me, if you were in charge of Russia, what would your response be? How would you deal with an existential threat on your borders?

[Ken]

It seems that the EU is fast-tracking EU membership for Ukraine which will mostly have effect for the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees pouring into EU countries. As a junior member of the EU that means all Ukrainian refugees will have the right to live and work in any EU nation, enroll their children in public schools, take advantage of social services like the public health systems, and so forth. That seems a pretty big deal and is different from how most refugees are treated around the world, including here in the US generally.

It is frankly utterly obvious why Ukrainians are more interested in casting their fate with the west rather than Russia. As should be their right as a free and independent people since 1991. They are not a colony of Imperial Russia. And the days of imperial conquest should be long behind us.

A comparison of the economic performance of two neighboring states is instructive. Poland and Belarus are similar-sized central/eastern European states that share a long border. Both emerged from the fall of communism and the Soviet Union in 1990 with their economies in tatters and per-capita GDPs below $2,000. Poland was actually in worse shape than Belarus and had a lower per-capita GDP in 1990. Since then the fates of both countries have dramatically diverged. Poland joined the EU and has seen its per-capita GDP rise to around $15,700 which makes it a solidly middle income country. Belarus has stayed wedded to the corrupt authoritarian petro-state that is Russia and has seen its economy stagnate and grow only about 1/3 as fast as Poland to about $6,400. With these two diverging examples literally on its borders, it is a no-brainer for Ukrainians to decide which economic path they want to take. This isn't really about NATO. It is about which economic path the nation wishes to take.

POLAND: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/P ... per-capita



BELARUS: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/B ... per-capita

[Soloist]

Is it possible to understand why someone does something without actually endorsing the person and what they do? Or is this deemed impossible?

[mike]

A comparison of the economic performance of two neighboring states is instructive.

I checked your linked sources and am I seeing correctly that Ukraine's GDP per capita is $3,727, which is 58% of Belarus and 23% of Poland?

[Ken]

They are literally defending their right to exist as independent nations. Tell me, Ken, do you think the people of Transnistria, Abkhazia, Artsakh, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Palestine should have a right to exist as independent nations and retain their peoplehood? Or should they just be swallowed up into whatever the nearest Western-aligned neighbour is?

Responding to just this one point. It is a fundamental principal of the post-WW2 international order that we do not tolerate the changing of international borders by force. Most of the wars of the past were about territorial expansion and fights over territory. As principal of maintaining peace the world has decided it will no longer tolerate such aggression. Virtually every country in the world outside of a few ethnically insular place like Japan has large ethnic minorities within its borders. That is the rule, not the exception.

In any event, since the end of WW2, only four countries on the planet have sought to expand their territory through military force and annexation. Iraq tried it in 1990 when they invaded Kuwait. Israel is doing it today with it's de-facto annexation of Palestinian territories. China did it with Tibet. And Russia has done it all across the former Soviet Union in Georgia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Armenia, and other places that I'm sure I'm forgetting.

I'm not sure I would treat any of those as good examples to be followed.

Why is it that Russia has to constantly resort to force and military invasion to keep territories under its thumb? When the EU and NATO do not? NATO troops, for example, aren't invading Lithuania to keep them from returning to the Soviet fold.

[Josh]

Ukraine is one of the poorest countries in its domain, and it's instructive to consider why. They started with immense resources including Russian aerospace and vast natural resources, and yet they've ended up being one of the poorest countries in Europe and poorest satellite states.

Ken,

It is frankly utterly obvious why Ukrainians are more interested in casting their fate with the west rather than Russia. As should be their right as a free and independent people since 1991. They are not a colony of Imperial Russia. And the days of imperial conquest should be long behind us.

Could you explain why Ukrainians in Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk have all expressed a desire to be part of Russia? If you need reminding, I can pull up the electoral results of the referendum in Crimea.

[Ken]

A comparison of the economic performance of two neighboring states is instructive.

I checked your linked sources and am I seeing correctly that Ukraine's GDP per capita is $3,727, which is 58% of Belarus and 23% of Poland?

Yes, wars and life under an utterly-corrupt Russian puppet state through 2014 will do that to an economy. It's not surprising the Ukrainians want a change.