Poll: Freedom Convoy and Related Protests

[ken_sylvania]

So yes, a blip, but possibly not for the many individuals and families who rely on the bridge being open?

And I assume that even though it is a blip for the automakers, you still wouldn't justify the actions of those who shut down the bridge?

It wasn't really a "blip." Or perhaps it was a blip compared to the chip shortage, but it was a costly blip. One report estimates that the auto industry lost $300 million from the Ambassador Bridge protest.

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/ambass ... -in-losses

Protests that shut down the Ambassador Bridge inflicted almost $300 million in financial losses to the auto industry, an analysis of the border disruption found.

According to a study by an East Lansing-based research firm, lost wages in Michigan, Kentucky, Ohio, Alabama, as well as in Ontario added up to a costly week for the automotive sector, following the blockage of one of the busiest border crossings in the country.

From Feb. 7 to Feb. 15, direct wage losses totaled to around $144.9 million - mostly in Michigan and Ontario.

GM, Ford, Stellantis, Honda, and Toyota suffered losses of $155 million.

"Within hours of the trade disruption at the Ambassador and Blue Water bridges, we observed shortages and then slowdowns at assembly plants," said Patrick Anderson, Anderson Economic Group’s Principal and CEO. "Only some of that lost production can be made up given the tightness of the auto industry’s supply chain right now, so these are real losses to the men and women working in this industry."

The trade disruption's timing only worsened an already precarious situation for automakers, which have been hit hard by parts shortages and the pandemic.

When I worked in manufacturing, anything that caused a slowdown or reduced efficiency could be the difference between making money and losing money on a job, especially when it came to tight profit margins.

Here is an article in Fortune Magazine that estimates the impact to the auto industry alone at $988 million or very nearly $1 billion. Of which over $50 million are lost wages to auto workers alone: https://fortune.com/2022/02/14/freedom- ... us-canada/

This whole Canadian trucker protest thing strikes me as very similar to the BLM protests of the summer of 2020 in that they may have started with a peaceful core of protestors who were acting civilly and peacefully and the movement gets hijacked by others who have different objectives and who are causing actual economic damage. The economic damages caused by these trucker protests and border shutdowns has probably already eclipsed all of the monetary damage due to arson and such from all of the BLM protests in 2020. Which was largely caused by anarchist types and other bad actors who hijacked peaceful BLM protests for their own ends.

I don't support the bridge blockade, but that Fortune Magazine article is just begging for someone to point out that the "very nearly $1 billion impact" mentioned is not a $1 billion loss, notwithstanding the implication that it is. The $988 million is apparently just the value of the goods that would normally have been hauled across the bridge every week. The goods aren't lost, they're just "impacted."

As to the extra policing costs - I have no way of knowing if they're necessary, but it is nice to know that at least Canada has plenty of funding and personnel for law enforcement, unlike many cities in the US.

[temporal1]

In manufacturing, if you're not producing, you're losing money. You can't entirely make up lost production after a slowdown or shutdown.

Could you comment, then, on the effect unnecessary covid lockdowns for the last 2 years have had?

The convoy didn’t appear out of a vacuum to irrationally annoy tone deaf libs.

There are a number of answers found in this video, with notes from Robert+appleman:

The first hour is an excellent interview with one of the originators of the Freedom Convoy.
He gives a history and layout of what is going on really well. I have not watched past the first hour yet. I can not speak to anything else on this. It is the first hour that I hope you will watch. Quite informative.

Viva Frei (David Freiholt) is the interviewer. He is the Canadian lawyer I have watched for a long time.

If you want to get a sense of what is really happening in Ottawa this is the guy to watch. Watch his Saturday Feb. 12th to get a sense of how many ordinary people are there.

All I can say is that to classify this as an occupation in the truest sense is simply false.

[Szdfan]

It wasn't really a "blip." Or perhaps it was a blip compared to the chip shortage, but it was a costly blip. One report estimates that the auto industry lost $300 million from the Ambassador Bridge protest.

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/ambass ... -in-losses

When I worked in manufacturing, anything that caused a slowdown or reduced efficiency could be the difference between making money and losing money on a job, especially when it came to tight profit margins.

Here is an article in Fortune Magazine that estimates the impact to the auto industry alone at $988 million or very nearly $1 billion. Of which over $50 million are lost wages to auto workers alone: https://fortune.com/2022/02/14/freedom- ... us-canada/

This whole Canadian trucker protest thing strikes me as very similar to the BLM protests of the summer of 2020 in that they may have started with a peaceful core of protestors who were acting civilly and peacefully and the movement gets hijacked by others who have different objectives and who are causing actual economic damage. The economic damages caused by these trucker protests and border shutdowns has probably already eclipsed all of the monetary damage due to arson and such from all of the BLM protests in 2020. Which was largely caused by anarchist types and other bad actors who hijacked peaceful BLM protests for their own ends.

I don't support the bridge blockade, but that Fortune Magazine article is just begging for someone to point out that the "very nearly $1 billion impact" mentioned is not a $1 billion loss, notwithstanding the implication that it is. The $988 million is apparently just the value of the goods that would normally have been hauled across the bridge every week. The goods aren't lost, they're just "impacted."

As to the extra policing costs - I have no way of knowing if they're necessary, but it is nice to know that at least Canada has plenty of funding and personnel for law enforcement, unlike many cities in the US.

One of the issues is manufacturing capacity. You can only produce as much product as the factory is able to produce. If the factory shuts or slows down because of supply issues, it's very difficult to "catch up" and produce more than capacity to make up for the lost time. So I'm skeptical of the $1 billion number, but I don't think its unreasonable to think that the amount of lost production time could be in the hundreds of millions.

[Szdfan]

A wise person once wrote: "Because what matters most is capitalism."

Also, I assume you're being sarcastic, but being called "wise" (even sarcastically) made my day.

It was a tongue-in-cheek comment to be sure. I do think though that you have a quite a bit of wisdom and have benefited from reading it over the years.

That means a lot coming from you. Thank you.

[temporal1]

Driving north of Toledo on I-75 Friday morning, before I had heard anything about the Ambassador Bridge blockade, the road signs gave detour instructions:

So yes, Port Huron is out of the way for most traffic and had long wait times because of the overflow, but did remain open. The economic activity was rerouted and delayed, but not cancelled.
As for the automakers, this was a minor blip compared to the chip shortage.

So yes, a blip, but possibly not for the many individuals and families who rely on the bridge being open?

And I assume that even though it is a blip for the automakers, you still wouldn't justify the actions of those who shut down the bridge?

It's only truckers who rely on the bridge being open. Cars, light trucks, vans, and buses can use the tunnel, which during the bridge shutdown had 20-minute wait times and traffic that was twice the recent average but only 2/3 of pre-pandemic levels. Source.

I'm not in support of the bridge shutdown. But let's not jump to the conclusion that it closed the Detroit-Windsor border entirely.

(in my dreams) . . .
appleman for POTUS.
oj to direct the mainstream news industry, so we can all learn to respect it. remove sensationalism, exaggerations, speculation, opinion, gossip, hyperbole, propaganda.

[ken_sylvania]

Here is an article in Fortune Magazine that estimates the impact to the auto industry alone at $988 million or very nearly $1 billion. Of which over $50 million are lost wages to auto workers alone: https://fortune.com/2022/02/14/freedom- ... us-canada/

This whole Canadian trucker protest thing strikes me as very similar to the BLM protests of the summer of 2020 in that they may have started with a peaceful core of protestors who were acting civilly and peacefully and the movement gets hijacked by others who have different objectives and who are causing actual economic damage. The economic damages caused by these trucker protests and border shutdowns has probably already eclipsed all of the monetary damage due to arson and such from all of the BLM protests in 2020. Which was largely caused by anarchist types and other bad actors who hijacked peaceful BLM protests for their own ends.

I don't support the bridge blockade, but that Fortune Magazine article is just begging for someone to point out that the "very nearly $1 billion impact" mentioned is not a $1 billion loss, notwithstanding the implication that it is. The $988 million is apparently just the value of the goods that would normally have been hauled across the bridge every week. The goods aren't lost, they're just "impacted."

As to the extra policing costs - I have no way of knowing if they're necessary, but it is nice to know that at least Canada has plenty of funding and personnel for law enforcement, unlike many cities in the US.

One of the issues is manufacturing capacity. You can only produce as much product as the factory is able to produce. If the factory shuts or slows down because of supply issues, it's very difficult to "catch up" and produce more than capacity to make up for the lost time. So I'm skeptical of the $1 billion number, but I don't think its unreasonable to think that the amount of lost production time could be in the hundreds of millions.

I suppose it could be. I have absolutely no way of knowing what the lost profit from the production time would have been, but if a particular factory slows down and produces $5 million less in product, that's not a $5 million loss. At least, if profit margins are as razor-thin as some claim it's likely less than a $1million loss. Still not good, but the bigger numbers make it sound so much more impressive!

As far as the economic damage from the trucker protests and "border closures" eclipsing all of the monetary damage from all of the BLM protests in 2020 - I'm skeptical. Insurance companies estimate they are on the hook for as much as $2 billion and possibly more, for claims for insured damages during the two week period from 5/26/2020 through 6/8/2020. Not just $2 billion dollars of goods impacted - but $2 billion worth of property destroyed/stolen etc. This of course is just insured losses - not all the other costs like additional police costs, lost business revenue, etc. In fact, it was quite fascinating to read Paul Krugman's opinion article in which he breezily says that "it's not hard to come up with numbers like $300 million or more per day [for the cost of the blockade]" (never mind explaining in any rational way where he gets that number), then concludes the trucker protests "may have" inflicted a couple billion dollars in economic damage, and compares it to the insurance claims number for the BLM protests for that two week period and pretends that the insurance claims number represents the total economic toll of the riots (he calls them remarkably nonviolent demonstrations). Equally fascinating is the idea that there were only "a few cases" of vandalism, "relatively rare," causing a "small" amount of damage. And the insurance bill for this was $1 billion to $2 billion? Can I get a $225k annual salary to peddle this kind of nonsense, or is that a privilege reserved for the intellectual elite?

[Ken]

I don't support the bridge blockade, but that Fortune Magazine article is just begging for someone to point out that the "very nearly $1 billion impact" mentioned is not a $1 billion loss, notwithstanding the implication that it is. The $988 million is apparently just the value of the goods that would normally have been hauled across the bridge every week. The goods aren't lost, they're just "impacted."

As to the extra policing costs - I have no way of knowing if they're necessary, but it is nice to know that at least Canada has plenty of funding and personnel for law enforcement, unlike many cities in the US.

One of the issues is manufacturing capacity. You can only produce as much product as the factory is able to produce. If the factory shuts or slows down because of supply issues, it's very difficult to "catch up" and produce more than capacity to make up for the lost time. So I'm skeptical of the $1 billion number, but I don't think its unreasonable to think that the amount of lost production time could be in the hundreds of millions.

I suppose it could be. I have absolutely no way of knowing what the lost profit from the production time would have been, but if a particular factory slows down and produces $5 million less in product, that's not a $5 million loss. At least, if profit margins are as razor-thin as some claim it's likely less than a $1million loss. Still not good, but the bigger numbers make it sound so much more impressive!

As far as the economic damage from the trucker protests and "border closures" eclipsing all of the monetary damage from all of the BLM protests in 2020 - I'm skeptical. Insurance companies estimate they are on the hook for as much as $2 billion and possibly more, for claims for insured damages during the two week period from 5/26/2020 through 6/8/2020. Not just $2 billion dollars of goods impacted - but $2 billion worth of property destroyed/stolen etc. This of course is just insured losses - not all the other costs like additional police costs, lost business revenue, etc. In fact, it was quite fascinating to read Paul Krugman's opinion article in which he breezily says that "it's not hard to come up with numbers like $300 million or more per day [for the cost of the blockade]" (never mind explaining in any rational way where he gets that number), then concludes the trucker protests "may have" inflicted a couple billion dollars in economic damage, and compares it to the insurance claims number for the BLM protests for that two week period and pretends that the insurance claims number represents the total economic toll of the riots (he calls them remarkably nonviolent demonstrations). Equally fascinating is the idea that there were only "a few cases" of vandalism, "relatively rare," causing a "small" amount of damage. And the insurance bill for this was $1 billion to $2 billion? Can I get a $225k annual salary to peddle this kind of nonsense, or is that a privilege reserved for the intellectual elite?

I'm frankly less worried about companies like GM and Ford than I am about the little guys. If you are a trucker and just spent 2 weeks stuck at the Canadian border unable to cross because a few other truckers are blockading the border than those are 2 weeks of income that you are NEVER going to get back. You can't just drive overtime to make up for the loss. The law prevents that. Same thing for factory shift workers. If you are laid off for 2 weeks those are 2 weeks that you might never get back. There is no guarantee of future overtime work to make up for that loss.

[ken_sylvania]

One of the issues is manufacturing capacity. You can only produce as much product as the factory is able to produce. If the factory shuts or slows down because of supply issues, it's very difficult to "catch up" and produce more than capacity to make up for the lost time. So I'm skeptical of the $1 billion number, but I don't think its unreasonable to think that the amount of lost production time could be in the hundreds of millions.

I suppose it could be. I have absolutely no way of knowing what the lost profit from the production time would have been, but if a particular factory slows down and produces $5 million less in product, that's not a $5 million loss. At least, if profit margins are as razor-thin as some claim it's likely less than a $1million loss. Still not good, but the bigger numbers make it sound so much more impressive!

As far as the economic damage from the trucker protests and "border closures" eclipsing all of the monetary damage from all of the BLM protests in 2020 - I'm skeptical. Insurance companies estimate they are on the hook for as much as $2 billion and possibly more, for claims for insured damages during the two week period from 5/26/2020 through 6/8/2020. Not just $2 billion dollars of goods impacted - but $2 billion worth of property destroyed/stolen etc. This of course is just insured losses - not all the other costs like additional police costs, lost business revenue, etc. In fact, it was quite fascinating to read Paul Krugman's opinion article in which he breezily says that "it's not hard to come up with numbers like $300 million or more per day [for the cost of the blockade]" (never mind explaining in any rational way where he gets that number), then concludes the trucker protests "may have" inflicted a couple billion dollars in economic damage, and compares it to the insurance claims number for the BLM protests for that two week period and pretends that the insurance claims number represents the total economic toll of the riots (he calls them remarkably nonviolent demonstrations). Equally fascinating is the idea that there were only "a few cases" of vandalism, "relatively rare," causing a "small" amount of damage. And the insurance bill for this was $1 billion to $2 billion? Can I get a $225k annual salary to peddle this kind of nonsense, or is that a privilege reserved for the intellectual elite?

I'm frankly less worried about companies like GM and Ford than I am about the little guys. If you are a trucker and just spent 2 weeks stuck at the Canadian border unable to cross because a few other truckers are blockading the border than those are 2 weeks of income that you are NEVER going to get back. You can't just drive overtime to make up for the loss. The law prevents that. Same thing for factory shift workers. If you are laid off for 2 weeks those are 2 weeks that you might never get back. There is no guarantee of future overtime work to make up for that loss.

Right. 'Course the last time I was up in Oakland County, MI it didn't look like taking two weeks off of work without pay bothered the auto industry workers that much.
But there are people caught up in the border blockades who did nothing wrong and are doing nothing wrong - they're just trying to provide for their families. I think the border blockade in particular is misguided.

[Ernie]

I'm not in support of the bridge shutdown. But let's not jump to the conclusion that it closed the Detroit-Windsor border entirely.

I was not under that illusion or conclusion. I was referring to the truckers and those who lost work because of the truckers delayed shipments.

[Signtist]

I'm frankly less worried about companies like GM and Ford than I am about the little guys. If you are a trucker and just spent 2 weeks stuck at the Canadian border unable to cross because a few other truckers are blockading the border than those are 2 weeks of income that you are NEVER going to get back. You can't just drive overtime to make up for the loss. The law prevents that. Same thing for factory shift workers. If you are laid off for 2 weeks those are 2 weeks that you might never get back. There is no guarantee of future overtime work to make up for that loss.

well your truck driver friend needs to study geography a bit. He has options, maybe not as expeditious as the Ambassador bridge, but if someone wanted to cross they were absolutely not stuck for even a week, much less 2.