Ken wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:47 pm
For example, the science tells us that we could have stopped Covid in it's tracks by a simple global 14 day lockdown of the entire planet back in January 2020. Let it die out in the few individuals who had it at that time and it is erased. But that wasn't politically or practically viable so we did half-measures instead. Which obviously didn't work. Scientifically lockdowns would work perfectly, but in terms of practice they don't because they are never implemented perfectly.
True science tells us that such a lockdown would have resulted in horrendous misery and death.
New Zealand did a pretty universal lockdown. I'm not sure they had horrendous misery and death. But their lockdown was more at the national level rather than individual house or city block. And they are realizing you can't maintain it forever so eventually you have to open back up if you want to rejoin the rest of the world.
By that reasoning a global lockdown would mean nobody could enter or leave the globe - I don't think a global lockdown of that sort would have done any good other than make sure nobody in the ISS would have gotten COVI-19.
If New Zealand had instituted a complete lockdown there would have been no way to get food to people, no way to distribute life-saving medicine, no fire fighters working, etc. There would have absolutely been horrendous misery and death.
Very few people keep a 14-day supply of food, heating, and water, and have the ability to go without electricity for 14 days. Not to mention no way to dispose of sewage.
Perhaps it would be good for public health authorities and governments to start mandating that. Everyone has to be ready to be unplugged for 14 days.
From the start, all measures, large+small, were intended to “flatten the curve,” to prevent hospital overloads, etc.,
there was never a promise or suggestion the “genie would be returned to her bottle.”
Some reports have stated, “everyone will get it,” it’s a matter of time.
What wasn’t certain early on was the possibility of reinfection, and infection after vaccines; required boosters, infection after boosters.
Josh wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:16 pm
Very few people keep a 14-day supply of food, heating, and water, and have the ability to go without electricity for 14 days. Not to mention no way to dispose of sewage.
Perhaps it would be good for public health authorities and governments to start mandating that. Everyone has to be ready to be unplugged for 14 days.
I'm not advocating that. Just pointing out that we rarely ever follow pure science whatever the topic. Public policy is always a compromise in the face of competing objectives and realities. And often half-way measures are worse than nothing because they impose costs without gaining the benefits
0 x
A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Josh wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:16 pm
Very few people keep a 14-day supply of food, heating, and water, and have the ability to go without electricity for 14 days. Not to mention no way to dispose of sewage.
Perhaps it would be good for public health authorities and governments to start mandating that. Everyone has to be ready to be unplugged for 14 days.
I'm not advocating that. Just pointing out that we rarely ever follow pure science whatever the topic. Public policy is always a compromise in the face of competing objectives and realities. And often half-way measures are worse than nothing because they impose costs without gaining the benefits
There is zero pure science on a complete lockdown. Such an experiment hasn’t been done, although a few places like the ISS and Antarctica got close - strangely enough covid spread to the Antarctic base.
A 14 day, universal lock-down would result in most people dying. i guess that would reduce COVID spread...
In other news, Israel (with one of the highest target vaccinated rates in the world) now has the highest COVID death rate, while Africa has...none. South Africa is also looking pretty good since they gave up on vaccination campaigns and lockdowns.
Can't wait to hear about how this is proof the "VACCINES ARE WORKING!!!"
nett wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:58 am
A 14 day, universal lock-down would result in most people dying. i guess that would reduce COVID spread...
In other news, Israel (with one of the highest target vaccinated rates in the world) now has the highest COVID death rate, while Africa has...none. South Africa is also looking pretty good since they gave up on vaccination campaigns and lockdowns.
Can't wait to hear about how this is proof the "VACCINES ARE WORKING!!!"
Israel isn't one of the most vaccinated countries in the world. It actually ranks 54th in terms of percentage of the population "fully vaccinated" which is below the US and below most of the other countries on your chart outside of Africa where the numbers are unreliable.
nett wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:58 am
A 14 day, universal lock-down would result in most people dying. i guess that would reduce COVID spread...
In other news, Israel (with one of the highest target vaccinated rates in the world) now has the highest COVID death rate, while Africa has...none. South Africa is also looking pretty good since they gave up on vaccination campaigns and lockdowns.
Can't wait to hear about how this is proof the "VACCINES ARE WORKING!!!"
Israel isn't one of the most vaccinated countries in the world. It actually ranks 54th in terms of percentage of the population "fully vaccinated" which is below the US and below most of the other countries on your chart outside of Africa where the numbers are unreliable.
Given how badly things are going in Israel, hopefully they can make some use of this new research that shows that vitamin D are the single most important factor in predicting how severe a COVID infection will be.
