Josh wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:20 pm
Looks like Sweden's approach worked - Sweden continues to drop lower and lower in the death-rate rankings - 148 deaths per 100,000 pop. Meanwhile, lockdown-obsessed Chile is 206 and UK 223. (Data from JHU.)
The better comparison is to Norway with which Sweden shares a massively long and relatively open border. Two bordering countries with very similar populations and health systems that differ primarily on their approach to Covid management. How do those two countries compare? Let's take a look:
The best comparison is to compare Sweden with the European countries that did hard lockdowns, like the UK, or Chile - Sweden consistently outperforms them. And Sweden's death rate continues to drop lower and lower with the Omicron situation.
Meanwhile, places like NZ and Australia are about to experiencing their first-ever major wave of COVID, with a population with no natural immunity to it. I don't plan to book any flights to Sydney in the next couple weeks...
That has been my hope, that the pandemic would "flame out" with this highly contagious but milder Omicron variant. We should know by mid-Ferbuary if she is right.
I think a week or so will get the data more up-to-date from the holiday reporting irregularities, but at this point it looks like reported Covid cases almost don't matter at all, because we are seeing an insanely high spike in cases with NO corresponding increase in Covid deaths. I think we can be more sure of that in a week or so after reporting is caught up and we actually see whether there is some wild uptick in deaths. Even if there is only a moderate increase in deaths, based on the number of cases I think we can say the virus is basically running out of steam.
That has been my hope, that the pandemic would "flame out" with this highly contagious but milder Omicron variant. We should know by mid-Ferbuary if she is right.
I think a week or so will get the data more up-to-date from the holiday reporting irregularities, but at this point it looks like reported Covid cases almost don't matter at all, because we are seeing an insanely high spike in cases with NO corresponding increase in Covid deaths. I think we can be more sure of that in a week or so after reporting is caught up and we actually see whether there is some wild uptick in deaths. Even if there is only a moderate increase in deaths, based on the number of cases I think we can say the virus is basically running out of steam.
So far the massive Omicron case spike here in the US has been accompanied by about a 30% increase in hospitalizations but no increase in deaths (according to the latest national data from today). So that is good news so far, but probably too early yet to say for sure.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Josh wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:20 pm
Looks like Sweden's approach worked - Sweden continues to drop lower and lower in the death-rate rankings - 148 deaths per 100,000 pop. Meanwhile, lockdown-obsessed Chile is 206 and UK 223. (Data from JHU.)
The better comparison is to Norway with which Sweden shares a massively long and relatively open border. Two bordering countries with very similar populations and health systems that differ primarily on their approach to Covid management. Or Finland, with which it also shares a border. How do those three countries compare? Let's take a look:
Wait what, you've been telling us about Chile's perfection in handling COVID for a long time. Why are you suddenly changing the goal posts?
Josh wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:20 pm
Looks like Sweden's approach worked - Sweden continues to drop lower and lower in the death-rate rankings - 148 deaths per 100,000 pop. Meanwhile, lockdown-obsessed Chile is 206 and UK 223. (Data from JHU.)
The better comparison is to Norway with which Sweden shares a massively long and relatively open border. Two bordering countries with very similar populations and health systems that differ primarily on their approach to Covid management. Or Finland, with which it also shares a border. How do those three countries compare? Let's take a look:
Wait what, you've been telling us about Chile's perfection in handling COVID for a long time. Why are you suddenly changing the goal posts?
Who is changing goal posts? If you want to compare countries at least use countries with reasonably similar populations, cultures, climate, health care systems, and so forth. So that what you are actually comparing are differences in Covid responses and not other factors. For example, the US should probably be compared to Canada with which it shares a massive border and similar populations, and not say China or Japan. Chile should be compared to the other countries in the region with which it shares borders and similar populations like Argentina, Peru, and Brazil. Although Chile doesn't share a border with Brazil it has lots of connections as lots of wealthy Chileans have vacation homes in Brazil and move back and forth just like Americans do with Mexico. Also remember that seasons are opposite in the southern hemisphere so Chile is in the middle of summer and the waves happen differently than they do in the northern hemisphere. They haven't seen omicron yet, at least not much.
Here are all of those countries. Chile is doing better than all of its South American peers and better than the US but not as good as Canada.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
President Biden is yet again facing backlash over the FDA’s booster approval process, which recommended boosters for children this week without convening a panel of advisors to weigh in on the matter.
"Dear President Biden, FDA is bypassing it's scientific advisors to authorize boosters for all kids 12-15 next week. This is unconscionable – undermines the integrity of the FDA's standard process! Please require FDA to put this authoriz [sic] before the VRBPAC advisory comm for a vote!" Dr. Marty Makary, chief of the Johns Hopkins Islet Transplant Center and Fox News contributor, tweeted Saturday.
The Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee voted against giving the Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 booster shots to most people back in September. It instead voted to limit boosters to those aged 65 and older, as well as to people at risk of severe illness, citing the lack of evidence showing the boosters are safe for younger people.
"We’re being asked to approve this as a three-dose vaccine for people 16 years of age and older, without any clear evidence if the third dose for a younger person when compared to an elderly person is of value," committee member Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said at the time.
The controversy over boosters in the early fall was compounded when two FDA officials - the director of the FDA’s Office of Vaccines Research & Review, Marion Gruber, and its deputy director Phil Krause - resigned from the agency.
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Try hard not to offend. Try harder not to be offended.
I think I am funnier than I really am.
New large-scale study out of the UK on Omicron. The UK Health Security Agency that just released a very comprehensive first look at Omicron last Friday. The agency analyzed 528,176 Omicron cases and 573,012 Delta cases between Nov. 22 and Dec. 26 to assess the risk of hospitalization in England. The researchers included all cases diagnosed in the community and then assessed the risk of general admission to the hospital or admission through emergency care:
An update on the analysis published last week finds the risk of presentation to emergency care or hospital admission with Omicron was approximately half of that for Delta (Hazard Ratio 0.53, 95% CI: 0.50 to 0.57). The risk of hospital admission from emergency departments with Omicron was approximately one-third of that for Delta (Hazard Ratio 0.33, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.37).
. . .
In this analysis, the risk of hospitalisation is lower for Omicron cases after 2 and 3 doses of vaccine, with an 81% (77 to 85%) reduction in the risk of hospitalisation after 3 doses compared to unvaccinated Omicron cases.
. . .
After 3 doses of vaccine, the risk of hospitalisation for a symptomatic case identified with Omicron through community testing was estimated to be reduced by 68% (42 to 82%) when compared to similar individuals with Omicron who were not vaccinated (after adjusting for age, gender, previous positive test, region, ethnicity, clinically extremely vulnerable status, risk group status and period). Combined with the protection against becoming a symptomatic case, this gives a vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of 88% (78 to 93%) for Omicron after 3 doses of vaccine.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Ken wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:11 pm
New large-scale study out of the UK on Omicron. The UK Health Security Agency that just released a very comprehensive first look at Omicron last Friday. The agency analyzed 528,176 Omicron cases and 573,012 Delta cases between Nov. 22 and Dec. 26 to assess the risk of hospitalization in England. The researchers included all cases diagnosed in the community and then assessed the risk of general admission to the hospital or admission through emergency care:
An update on the analysis published last week finds the risk of presentation to emergency care or hospital admission with Omicron was approximately half of that for Delta (Hazard Ratio 0.53, 95% CI: 0.50 to 0.57). The risk of hospital admission from emergency departments with Omicron was approximately one-third of that for Delta (Hazard Ratio 0.33, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.37).
. . .
In this analysis, the risk of hospitalisation is lower for Omicron cases after 2 and 3 doses of vaccine, with an 81% (77 to 85%) reduction in the risk of hospitalisation after 3 doses compared to unvaccinated Omicron cases.
. . .
After 3 doses of vaccine, the risk of hospitalisation for a symptomatic case identified with Omicron through community testing was estimated to be reduced by 68% (42 to 82%) when compared to similar individuals with Omicron who were not vaccinated (after adjusting for age, gender, previous positive test, region, ethnicity, clinically extremely vulnerable status, risk group status and period). Combined with the protection against becoming a symptomatic case, this gives a vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of 88% (78 to 93%) for Omicron after 3 doses of vaccine.
Robert wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:12 am
Masking and social distancing 6 feet do nothing with an airborne virus. I have been saying this for over 6 months. Ernie, you list is outdated and will be ineffective.
I started the discussion by saying that my list is now outdated. You are agreeing. What we don't agree on was whether it was outdated for Delta. I think I have evidence that it was still useful for Delta in some cases and you think you have evidence that it was not. Now that Delta is no longer the major concern, we can let the debate die a natural death.
Ernie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:15 pm
I think I have evidence that it was still useful for Delta in some cases and you think you have evidence that it was not.
Delta is a airborne virus the same as Omicron. Cloth masks do nothing for airborne virus infections. Only N95 masks will reduce viral spread for airborne, aerosolized virii. All variants of Covid are aerosolized virus infections. UV kills the virus, this is why outside one is quite safe in daylight hours.
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Try hard not to offend. Try harder not to be offended.
I think I am funnier than I really am.
Now that Delta is no longer the major concern, we can let the debate die a natural death. 