Coronavirus Outbreak

[mike]

The current spike of cases is up there close to the highest spike we've ever seen in the US.



However, deaths are still flat, despite the fact that case numbers have been increasing for almost two months now. This isn't like last winter's surge at all, so far. That's a good thing.

[Dan Z]

That's happening worldwide Mike - each wave of cases has a lower corresponding death peak. I attribute it to improved treatments and vaccines, and quite possibly a viral tendency to become less lethal with each significant variant. In terms of death rate - while COVID is still lethal, it does not seem to be what it once was.

[mike]

That's happening worldwide Mike - each wave of cases has a lower corresponding death peak. I attribute it to improved treatments and vaccines, and quite possibly a viral tendency to become less lethal with each significant variant. In terms of death rate - while COVID is still lethal, it does not seem to be what it once was.

I agree except for one addition - natural immunity. An absolutely HUGE percentage of the world's population has already had Covid. So, to list what I think are the contributing factors, in no particular order.

Natural immunity
Vaccination
Improved treatments
Less lethal mutations of the virus

[Josh]

That's happening worldwide Mike - each wave of cases has a lower corresponding death peak. I attribute it to improved treatments and vaccines, and quite possibly a viral tendency to become less lethal with each significant variant. In terms of death rate - while COVID is still lethal, it does not seem to be what it once was.

What? This has nothing to do with vaccines. The current vaccines do not make any difference with the Omicron variant.

It also has nothing to do with "improved treatments". Exactly what treatment has mainstream medicine been doing for COVID, besides sticking people in hospitals on ventilators, 60% of whom die?

You can say "COVID is still lethal", but so are the flu and common colds - indeed, the New York Times now is claiming that COVID and the flu are no different in terms of mortality.

[Sudsy]

Just to throw some stats into the topic that I found interesting -

Todate estimated deaths worldwide due to Coronavirus - roughly speaking just under 5.5 million.

Between 1346-1353 some estimate up to 200 million died of the 'Black Death'. Then there were only 400 million people in the world.

Today, confirmed Covid-19 deaths account for not even close to 1 % of the world’s population. World population now around 7.8 billion.

1918-1919 flu outbreak known in the US as the Spanish flu resulted in 50 million deaths worldwide.

Smallpox in the 1500s killed an estimated 56 million people, the majority children. Approximately 30% died of those infected.

HIV/AIDS has killed 25 to 35 million people. 1 million every year.

When looked at from a world's population point of view humans have gone through some much rougher periods. We should really be thankful that we live in such a time where life expectancy is still growing.

Worldwide in my lifetime the life expectancy has grown from 45 to almost 73. Wow, I am living on borrowed time.

[Dan Z]

That's happening worldwide Mike - each wave of cases has a lower corresponding death peak. I attribute it to improved treatments and vaccines, and quite possibly a viral tendency to become less lethal with each significant variant. In terms of death rate - while COVID is still lethal, it does not seem to be what it once was.

I agree except for one addition - natural immunity. An absolutely HUGE percentage of the world's population has already had Covid. So, to list what I think are the contributing factors, in no particular order.

Natural immunity
Vaccination
Improved treatments
Less lethal mutations of the virus

Agreed - I think Natural Immunity certainly has played a role here in limiting spread and mortality...although up to this point reinfections and breakthrough cases have not been a huge factor in caseloads - and thus not a big factor in the death rates of the infected either. From all I have read, up to this point COVID has mainly been infecting those without natural or vaccine-derived immunity. Sounds like the Omicron variant might very well change that though.

[mike]

Taking a look at the CDC's Covid excess deaths chart, which goes back to 2018 and shows the tail-end of the unusually severe 2017-2018 flu season. In 2020, I expected that 2021 would see a drop in deaths to below expected levels, due to the number of elderly and vulnerable who passed away prematurely due to Covid in 2020.



This didn't happen. From March to July, we did see an extended period where deaths were closed to expected levels. But in early 2021, excess deaths numbers were very high coming off the worst surge of the virus, and then in the fall, deaths rose again to a high of 36% higher than expected deaths in September.

I still think the pandemic surely must be followed by a period of time when deaths fall below expected rates. We'll see what happens.

[silentreader]

Well it didn't take as long as I expected....
Province of Ontario today new case rates: Fully vaccinated 32.39 per 100,000 -- 77.5% of daily total
Unvaccinated 31.93 per 100,000 -- 16% of daily total
Partially vaccinated 29.43 per 100,000

Hospitalization rates are not fully up to date but appear to be relatively stable, fully vaccinated people make up just over 50% of "hospitalizations but not in ICU" but only 24% of ICU cases.

[RZehr]

Well it didn't take as long as I expected....
Province of Ontario today new case rates: Fully vaccinated 32.39 per 100,000 -- 77.5% of daily total
Unvaccinated 31.93 per 100,000 -- 16% of daily total
Partially vaccinated 29.43 per 100,000

Hospitalization rates are not fully up to date but appear to be relatively stable, fully vaccinated people make up just over 50% of "hospitalizations but not in ICU" but only 24% of ICU cases.

Is it the Omicron variant there?

[ken_sylvania]

England said this week that it was reducing the number of days that people must isolate for after showing Covid-19 symptoms to seven days from 10 days, a change that officials said could help alleviate the shortages. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made a similar move on Thursday, though that change applies only to health workers.

That seems really brilliant. I mean, who would argue against the idea that a health-care worker should be allowed to go back to work for three days while they might still be contagious. It's not like they're in close contact with other people all day long or anything....