The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan

[Ernie]

airlifting 80,000 isn't a cake walk. You need to provide security, vetting and provide the crew for repairs for the plane and an area surrounding it to prevent them from being shot down during take off. Any time a plane flies off from a warzone... its got a chance of destruction.

I understand it is not an easy matter. I did not say it was easy. Rather that the US has the capability.
The point I am making is that there was no plan to even attempt such an evacuation if needed. They had a plan to airlift people gradually over a number of months at the end of the mission, rather than starting a year ago. But they had no plan for doing this in a hurry at the last minute, if it came to that. It was the one contingency they hadn't prepared for - one that Vietnam could have taught them.

[Ken]

airlifting 80,000 isn't a cake walk. You need to provide security, vetting and provide the crew for repairs for the plane and an area surrounding it to prevent them from being shot down during take off. Any time a plane flies off from a warzone... its got a chance of destruction.

Now drafting civilian airliners is a recipe for disaster... one civilian plane goes down, he's toast.

They aren't using civilian planes to fly into Afghanistan. They are contracting them to fly people onwards to the US or Europe from the bases in surrounding countries like Qatar to where the military flights from Kabul are delivering refugees and American evacuees.

[Grace]

Oh, I’m sure Biden is lying through the teeth that he has left. I haven’t heard or read any of his comments on the matter. It’s not that I think he’s doing a great job with Afghanistan. I just don’t think anyone saw if collapsing as suddenly as it did. I don’t recall anyone wanting to drag it out longer.

Most people are not opposed to troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. It was and is the backwards method it is being done. First he reversed dozens of Trump policies concerning the withdrawal method, then he didn’t heed the warnings from knowledgable people, now all he can do is play the blame game and lie.

Biden had ample warning from the C.I.A., State Department intelligence, the military, etc. for a Taliban take over. Surely he was warned that dozens of Afghan districts were falling and Taliban fighters were laying siege to several major cities. He was warned that Afghan government was unprepared for a Taliban assault, according to people familiar with the intelligence.

Early on Intelligence agencies predicted, that should the Taliban seize cities, a cascading collapse could happen rapidly and the Afghan security forces were at high risk of falling apart.

Some of Biden’s whoopers this week.
He said Americans are not having difficulties getting to the airport. Immediately refuted because they were.

He said Al Qaeda isn’t in Afghanistan. A few hours later, same day, in the Pentagon briefing, it was confirmed they still are .

He said foreign leaders are not criticizing his handling of the withdrawal. Also was immediately refuted.

[Bootstrap]

I don't think either Trump or Biden have covered themselves with glory here.

On June 26, 2021, Trump bragged:

I started the process. All the troops are coming back home. They couldn't stop the process. 21 years is enough. Don't we think? 21 years. [The Biden admin] couldn't stop the process. They wanted to, but it was very tough to stop.

Back then, he claimed he had tied Biden's hands. In January, Trump brought the number of American troops down to 2,500. Trump had already signed a treaty with the Taliban, with nothing measurable in return, clearly siding with the Taliban over the Afghan government.

Here's what two Trump-Administration hawks have to say:

John Bolton and H.R. McMaster, two former Trump national security advisers known for their hawkish views, have lambasted both Trump and Biden for the withdrawal — though both have long been critical of the Taliban agreement.

• "Our secretary of state [Mike Pompeo] signed a surrender agreement with the Taliban," McMaster said on Bari Weiss' podcast. "This collapse goes back to the capitulation agreement of 2020. The Taliban didn’t defeat us. We defeated ourselves."
• Bolton told CNN: "Had Trump been re-elected, he’d be doing the same thing. On this question of withdrawal from Afghanistan, Trump and Biden are like Tweedledee and Tweedledum."

Trump had a clear withdrawal date, but I can't find evidence of real planning for how the withdrawal would occur. BIden did not reject a set of existing plans for a withdrawal, there wasn't one. On the other hand, I expected Biden to do better at this than he did.

Can anyone think of examples where we lost a war but handled the withdrawal well? Saigon and the Bay of Pigs were both disasters. When and where did we do better?

[RZehr]

Seems like Trump should be given some credit for at least strategically planning the departure. And Biden should bear the blame for his tactical shortcomings.

[Ken]

I don't think either Trump or Biden have covered themselves with glory here.

On June 26, 2021, Trump bragged:

I started the process. All the troops are coming back home. They couldn't stop the process. 21 years is enough. Don't we think? 21 years. [The Biden admin] couldn't stop the process. They wanted to, but it was very tough to stop.

Back then, he claimed he had tied Biden's hands. In January, Trump brought the number of American troops down to 2,500. Trump had already signed a treaty with the Taliban, with nothing measurable in return, clearly siding with the Taliban over the Afghan government.

Here's what two Trump-Administration hawks have to say:

John Bolton and H.R. McMaster, two former Trump national security advisers known for their hawkish views, have lambasted both Trump and Biden for the withdrawal — though both have long been critical of the Taliban agreement.

• "Our secretary of state [Mike Pompeo] signed a surrender agreement with the Taliban," McMaster said on Bari Weiss' podcast. "This collapse goes back to the capitulation agreement of 2020. The Taliban didn’t defeat us. We defeated ourselves."
• Bolton told CNN: "Had Trump been re-elected, he’d be doing the same thing. On this question of withdrawal from Afghanistan, Trump and Biden are like Tweedledee and Tweedledum."

Trump had a clear withdrawal date, but I can't find evidence of real planning for how the withdrawal would occur. BIden did not reject a set of existing plans for a withdrawal, there wasn't one. On the other hand, I expected Biden to do better at this than he did.

Can anyone think of examples where we lost a war but handled the withdrawal well? Saigon and the Bay of Pigs were both disasters. When and where did we do better?

There are none. There is no way to lose a war gracefully and on your own terms. No US examples, and probably no foreign examples. Withdrawing in defeat (or just giving up) is always going to be messy. And it is always going to be a kinetic situation with events cascading out of your control. It’s like a giant pile of Jenna blocks. Pulling the last blocks out is always going to cause the pile to collapse.

The cognitive dissonance for Americans is that we were never actually defeated militarily. We just decided that it was no longer worth the effort and the initial objectives were flawed.

[Bootstrap]

Seems like Trump should be given some credit for at least strategically planning the departure. And Biden should bear the blame for his tactical shortcomings.

Did Trump have a strategic plan for that? Where can I learn about it?

[Ken]

Seems like Trump should be given some credit for at least strategically planning the departure. And Biden should bear the blame for his tactical shortcomings.

Did Trump have a strategic plan for that? Where can I learn about it?

Trump and Pompeo signed a deal with the Taliban and accomplished 80% of the troop withdrawals prior to Biden taking office.

Whether you consider that a STRATEGIC plan or not depends I guess on what your strategy is. But it was certainly a plan.

[RZehr]

Seems like Trump should be given some credit for at least strategically planning the departure. And Biden should bear the blame for his tactical shortcomings.

Did Trump have a strategic plan for that? Where can I learn about it?

Trump and Pompeo signed a deal with the Taliban and accomplished 80% of the troop withdrawals prior to Biden taking office.

Whether you consider that a STRATEGIC plan or not depends I guess on what your strategy is. But it was certainly a plan.

Yes. Particularly considering Trumps propensity to just seemingly winging it on many things he marginally cared about.
It seems he actually was interested in leaving Afghanistan, and actually took the time and political power to put it into effect. He seemingly did have a plan.

Where can you learn about it? Try Google. I’m not interested in it.

[Humble Disciple]

It’s not just women and Christians who will suffer under the Taliban. Islamic mystics, known as Sufis, are at risk of persecution under the Taliban as well.