Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan

[Ken]

No “magic fairy dust.” ^^^
Robert does a nice job of describing how leaders function differently, and response to different approaches varies:

I think that if President Trump was still in office, the transition would have been slower, but the same end result.

I also think he would have put pressure on some other Middle East states through his work on the Abraham Accords.
I actually think he would have brought more states into that and it would have been able to put more pressure on the Taliban.
He would have also used air power to slow the speed of advance, but I also think that the end would have been close to the same.

People in the Middle East and other countries knew President Trump would hit back.
This would have slowed the process.

I disagree with the first half of Robert's post too. Trump was pushing for a FASTER withdrawal from Afghanistan, not slower.

And I don't think Trump would have "used air power to slow the Taliban advance" because his own military would have told him that to do so would have been ineffective and counterproductive. This was not Wehrmacht or Red Army tank columns rolling across open plains that could be targeted by air. This was small groups of Taliban rolling through crowded civilian cities on foot and with pickup trucks. How do you use air power from 30,000 ft. to stop these guys in their pickup truck without blowing up the whole city? How can you even tell they are Taliban from 30,000 ft. in the air and not some innocent family on the way to the market?



And Afghanistan isn't really part of the Middle East. It is part of Central Asia. The relevant countries involved with Afghanistan are Pakistan, Iran, China, and the former Soviet Republics to the north. Which are either allies of the Taliban or opponents of US policy. Not the Gulf and Mediterranean states of Bahrain, UAE, and Morocco that were involved in the Abraham Accords. The only Gulf State involved with the Taliban is Saudi Arabia and the Taliban is their creation and a weapon in their geopolitical struggle with Iran.

I agree with Robert's second point that US intervention in Afghanistan was a 20-year mistake. But I disagree with his idea that air power and bombing could have any effect on political developments on the ground. Air strikes didn't work in Vietnam, Cambodia, Yugoslavia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Pakistan, or Yemen. And they didn't work for the past 20 years in Afghanistan. I don't think there is any reason to think things would have been any different in Afghanistan now.

[temporal1]

I disagree with the first half of Robert's post too.
Trump was pushing for a FASTER withdrawal from Afghanistan, not slower. ..

This continues to do nothing more than presume.
It’s odd how DJT’s words are so often dismissed as nonsense - when wanted;
then treated as tho they are permanently etched in stone - when wanted.

DJT indulged in colorful language.
There is a reality, that when things are, say, “sluggish,” a well-aimed threat of loss of the status quo, often stimulates action.
Parents, and teachers, routinely use this tactic with students, children. It’s used in business and court rooms.

“Hurry up, or else!”

All the copy+pastes in google cannot determine “what if?” But everyone is free to try their hand at it.

God knows. He’s the only one who knows.

btw.
i have nothing to say about timing, or extension, air power, bombing, or any of it. please don’t presume.

i agree with soloist about career politicians kicking cans. for DECADES. it works for THEM. they love it.

i’m just saying, no one knows, “what if?”

[Robert]

I disagree with the first half of Robert's post too. Trump was pushing for a FASTER withdrawal from Afghanistan, not slower.

Poor wording on my part. The total withdrawal may have happened about the same time or before, but the transition would not have been as abrupt. I hope that clarifies.

[RZehr]

The Taliban transition was smoother that the American Presidential transition.

[Ken]

The Taliban transition was smoother that the American Presidential transition.

Less violent too apparently.

[Ken]

As we watched the news this evening I told my daughter that this is the first moment in her life that she is living in a country that is not engaged in war.

She was born on March 20, 2003 which was the day that the Iraq war started. I remember watching CNN and seeing the tanks roll across the border from Kuwait that morning when we were in my wife's hospital room waiting for her scheduled C-section.

My daughter is now 18 and leaving for college next month.

[nett]

No “magic fairy dust.” ^^^
Robert does a nice job of describing how leaders function differently, and response to different approaches varies:

I disagree with the first half of Robert's post too. Trump was pushing for a FASTER withdrawal from Afghanistan, not slower.

And I don't think Trump would have "used air power to slow the Taliban advance" because his own military would have told him that to do so would have been ineffective and counterproductive. This was not Wehrmacht or Red Army tank columns rolling across open plains that could be targeted by air. This was small groups of Taliban rolling through crowded civilian cities on foot and with pickup trucks. How do you use air power from 30,000 ft. to stop these guys in their pickup truck without blowing up the whole city? How can you even tell they are Taliban from 30,000 ft. in the air and not some innocent family on the way to the market?



And Afghanistan isn't really part of the Middle East. It is part of Central Asia. The relevant countries involved with Afghanistan are Pakistan, Iran, China, and the former Soviet Republics to the north. Which are either allies of the Taliban or opponents of US policy. Not the Gulf and Mediterranean states of Bahrain, UAE, and Morocco that were involved in the Abraham Accords. The only Gulf State involved with the Taliban is Saudi Arabia and the Taliban is their creation and a weapon in their geopolitical struggle with Iran.

I agree with Robert's second point that US intervention in Afghanistan was a 20-year mistake. But I disagree with his idea that air power and bombing could have any effect on political developments on the ground. Air strikes didn't work in Vietnam, Cambodia, Yugoslavia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Pakistan, or Yemen. And they didn't work for the past 20 years in Afghanistan. I don't think there is any reason to think things would have been any different in Afghanistan now.

The Taliban would definitely be more restrained with Trump in office, Trump was wild card, but he was not a paper tiger. They know Biden will do exactly nothing.

It's definitely going to be odd living through a transition away from the US as the police of the world, and away from even being a relevant super power.

[RZehr]

As we watched the news this evening I told my daughter that this is the first moment in her life that she is living in a country that is not engaged in war.

She was born on March 20, 2003 which was the day that the Iraq war started. I remember watching CNN and seeing the tanks roll across the border from Kuwait that morning when we were in my wife's hospital room waiting for her scheduled C-section.

My daughter is now 18 and leaving for college next month.

Wow. I guess I assumed America still has troops fighting somewhere. If not, this is great.

[Ken]

As we watched the news this evening I told my daughter that this is the first moment in her life that she is living in a country that is not engaged in war.

She was born on March 20, 2003 which was the day that the Iraq war started. I remember watching CNN and seeing the tanks roll across the border from Kuwait that morning when we were in my wife's hospital room waiting for her scheduled C-section.

My daughter is now 18 and leaving for college next month.

Wow. I guess I assumed America still has troops fighting somewhere. If not, this is great.

There are troops all over the globe. Technically we are still at war in Korea. But I think this was the last place we were actually engaged in direct combat against a declared enemy in something that was actually labeled a war.

[JimFoxvog]

There are troops all over the globe. Technically we are still at war in Korea. But I think this was the last place we were actually engaged in direct combat against a declared enemy in something that was actually labeled a war.

I don't think war was ever legally declared in Afghanistan (or Korea, or Vietnam, or Laos, or Cambodia, or Iraq, or Kosovo...).