Coronavirus Outbreak

[Josh]

My wife who has been coordinating outpatient Covid care for this region for her clinic network (supervising dozens of doctors) says they are all so burnt out with Covid that woe to those who still walk into the hospital with Covid in late 2021 after the disease becomes completely preventable. They will not get the most sympathetic reception. People are exhausted and sick to death of dealing with Covid.

So, they aren’t practicing the most basic medical ethics or following established public health guidelines?

People I know who are EMTs are tired of dealing with drug overdoses and administering narcan (way worse than covid by the way and more common). Yet they don’t provide an “unsympathetic reception”. Sounds more like you just want to force your opinion that everyone should get an experimental, untested vaccine under some threat of... no medical care for a disease that rarely needs it anyway.

[mike]

The fourth wave of the virus has peaked, and ends up looking similar in some ways to wave #2 from last summer. Like #2, it peaked around 70,000 new cases per day. However, it is different in that the drop in cases following the peak has been a steeper curve. But it is most notably different in that there has not yet been any rise in daily new deaths at all 4 weeks out from the peak in cases. Instead of deaths beginning to rise 3-4 weeks after the cases started to rise, like we saw with each previous wave of the virus, deaths are actually starting to drop slightly after hanging between 700-800/day for the past month or so.





In my opinion, this appears to finally be decent evidence that the vaccine may be keeping the most vulnerable populations from getting Covid, and that the cases in the fourth wave have been happening among populations that are less vulnerable, and so have a lower mortality rate from the virus.

[Robert]

the cases in the fourth wave have been happening among populations that are less vulnerable, and so have a lower mortality rate from the virus.

If we would have protected the vulnerable and let everyone else go about normal life, we would have seen this much earlier and reached herd immunity much earlier. If only someone would have said that last year. Oh, wait. There was.

When a child lies, they seldom own up. They just keep lying on top of lies to cover up the fact that they lied to start with. Then they rationalize and justify their lying, often making the situation sound much worse to help justify their original lie. They will recruit others to support their lie and soon have several people agreeing to it. Once they build up so much structure around the original lie, they get trapped and can not own up to the truth because it will uncover the depth they went just to cover one little lie.

[Josh]

the cases in the fourth wave have been happening among populations that are less vulnerable, and so have a lower mortality rate from the virus.

If we would have protected the vulnerable and let everyone else go about normal life, we would have seen this much earlier and reached herd immunity much earlier. If only someone would have said that last year. Oh, wait. There was.

When a child lies, they seldom own up. They just keep lying on top of lies to cover up the fact that they lied to start with. Then they rationalize and justify their lying, often making the situation sound much worse to help justify their original lie. They will recruit others to support their lie and soon have several people agreeing to it. Once they build up so much structure around the original lie, they get trapped and can not own up to the truth because it will uncover the depth they went just to cover one little lie.

The plain community basically did this, and got herd immunity in summer of last year (against my own protests that young people shouldn’t be running around to so many weddings and ballgames). By late June, it had been possible to hold 100-500 person gatherings with no consequences.

[mike]

the cases in the fourth wave have been happening among populations that are less vulnerable, and so have a lower mortality rate from the virus.

If we would have protected the vulnerable and let everyone else go about normal life, we would have seen this much earlier and reached herd immunity much earlier. If only someone would have said that last year. Oh, wait. There was.

When a child lies, they seldom own up. They just keep lying on top of lies to cover up the fact that they lied to start with. Then they rationalize and justify their lying, often making the situation sound much worse to help justify their original lie. They will recruit others to support their lie and soon have several people agreeing to it. Once they build up so much structure around the original lie, they get trapped and can not own up to the truth because it will uncover the depth they went just to cover one little lie.

For better or for worse, you and I didn't get to determine the government's course of action, nor will we ever be in such a position. Of course we would have done a lot of things differently. I don't have the interest or energy to play the coulda woulda shoulda game. Just observing is all.

[RZehr]

I estimate that 99.5 to 110 million have had the virus in this country. And maybe the people who died of Covid instead of with Covid, is right about 175,000 - 188,000.
So the death rate would be somewhere between .16% and .19%.

I should add that I completely pulled these figures from thin air.

[ken_sylvania]

I estimate that 99.5 to 110 million have had the virus in this country. And maybe the people who died of Covid instead of with Covid, is right about 175,000 - 188,000.
So the death rate would be somewhere between .16% and .19%.

I should add that I completely pulled these figures from thin air.

Are you running for governor, or what?

[Ken]

My wife who has been coordinating outpatient Covid care for this region for her clinic network (supervising dozens of doctors) says they are all so burnt out with Covid that woe to those who still walk into the hospital with Covid in late 2021 after the disease becomes completely preventable. They will not get the most sympathetic reception. People are exhausted and sick to death of dealing with Covid.

So, they aren’t practicing the most basic medical ethics or following established public health guidelines?

People I know who are EMTs are tired of dealing with drug overdoses and administering narcan (way worse than covid by the way and more common). Yet they don’t provide an “unsympathetic reception”. Sounds more like you just want to force your opinion that everyone should get an experimental, untested vaccine under some threat of... no medical care for a disease that rarely needs it anyway.

People will do their jobs like they always have. But the endless overtime and volunteerism and sacrifice that they have been doing to help bring us through this pandemic is going to eventually end. Especially now that the disease is mostly preventable.

[Szdfan]

the cases in the fourth wave have been happening among populations that are less vulnerable, and so have a lower mortality rate from the virus.

If we would have protected the vulnerable and let everyone else go about normal life, we would have seen this much earlier and reached herd immunity much earlier. If only someone would have said that last year. Oh, wait. There was.

You mean like Wayne, who was unaware that he had cancer and could have attended the “Anabaptist Identity Conference” where there apparently was an outbreak. Like that?

[RZehr]

I estimate that 99.5 to 110 million have had the virus in this country. And maybe the people who died of Covid instead of with Covid, is right about 175,000 - 188,000.
So the death rate would be somewhere between .16% and .19%.

I should add that I completely pulled these figures from thin air.

Are you running for governor, or what?

Hmmmm....Lets see. I'm in a blue state. So let me double check my number. Ehem.
I now estimate that prior to the November election, there was upwards 20-500 million people who have, or are at risk of getting the virus in this country. Up to 600-700 may die from it. Since the end of January, we are looking at about 50,000,000 people who have had Covid with a pre-2021 death rate of up to 25%, and post-2020 death rate of 1%.

We are looking currently at death rate possibilities of up to 45% in Red states where they are permitting freedom and fewer masks and lower vaccination rates.
And in Blue states where social distancing and lockdowns and masks are the norm, and strong support for vaccinations, the death rate could soon be down as low as .0006% as soon as 2029.