Coronavirus Outbreak

[Ken]

Since there seems to be lot of vaccine skepticism here on mennonet I thought I would do a dive into vaccine rates in various menno-centric counties across the country and see what they look like compared to the national and state averages. It looks like Holmes County OH and LaGrange County IN have by far the lowest vaccination rates of any county with a sizeable Anabaptist population. And they are among the lowest counties in their respective states at 9% and 10%. The heavily Anabaptist counties of Lancaster PA and Elkhart IN come in at 15%. Most of the rest are much closer to the national and state averages.

PERCENT OF POPULATION FULLY VACCINATED (April 9, 2021)
------------------------------------------------------
United States: 21%
Pennsylvania: 19%
Ohio: 20%
Indiana: 19%
Kansas: 20%
Iowa: 23%

Lancaster Co. PA: 15%
Mifflin Co. PA: 18%
Bucks Co. PA: 19%
Holmes Co. OH: 9%
Fulton Co. OH: 22%
Wayne Co. OH: 15%
Geauga Co. OH: 22%
Elkhart Co. IN: 15%
LaGrange Co. IN: 10%
Adams Co. IN: 15%
McPherson Co. KS: 23%
Harvey Co. KS: 20%
Washington Co. IA: 22%

[Josh]

Since there seems to be lot of vaccine skepticism here on mennonet I thought I would do a dive into vaccine rates in various menno-centric counties across the country and see what they look like compared to the national and state averages. It looks like Holmes County OH and LaGrange County IN have by far the lowest vaccination rates of any county with a sizeable Anabaptist population. And they are among the lowest counties in their respective states at 9% and 10%. The heavily Anabaptist counties of Lancaster PA and Elkhart IN come in at 15%. Most of the rest are much closer to the national and state averages.

PERCENT OF POPULATION FULLY VACCINATED (April 9, 2021)
------------------------------------------------------
United States: 21%
Pennsylvania: 19%
Ohio: 20%
Indiana: 19%
Kansas: 20%
Iowa: 23%

Lancaster Co. PA: 15%
Mifflin Co. PA: 18%
Bucks Co. PA: 19%
Holmes Co. OH: 9%
Fulton Co. OH: 22%
Wayne Co. OH: 15%
Geauga Co. OH: 22%
Elkhart Co. IN: 15%
LaGrange Co. IN: 10%
Adams Co. IN: 15%
McPherson Co. KS: 23%
Harvey Co. KS: 20%
Washington Co. IA: 22%

In Holmes Co., there's no need to get a vaccine, because people are healthy, the hospital is nice and empty (I had reason to be in a hospital facility a few weeks ago in that region and most of rooms were empty), and most people gained immunity to COVID the best way: using your body's natural immune system, just like works well with colds and flus, which, incidentally, don't have any vaccine at all, or don't have a very effective vaccine.

If the rest of the world could be like Holmes Co., a lot of people would be a lot happier and more well-off. I'm not saying correlation is causation, but it does seem interesting the a place with very low vaccination, not much mask wearing, and no social distancing is doing so well when other places like New York City or NJ are a disaster and continue to be a disaster.

[Ken]

Since there seems to be lot of vaccine skepticism here on mennonet I thought I would do a dive into vaccine rates in various menno-centric counties across the country and see what they look like compared to the national and state averages. It looks like Holmes County OH and LaGrange County IN have by far the lowest vaccination rates of any county with a sizeable Anabaptist population. And they are among the lowest counties in their respective states at 9% and 10%. The heavily Anabaptist counties of Lancaster PA and Elkhart IN come in at 15%. Most of the rest are much closer to the national and state averages.

PERCENT OF POPULATION FULLY VACCINATED (April 9, 2021)
------------------------------------------------------
United States: 21%
Pennsylvania: 19%
Ohio: 20%
Indiana: 19%
Kansas: 20%
Iowa: 23%

Lancaster Co. PA: 15%
Mifflin Co. PA: 18%
Bucks Co. PA: 19%
Holmes Co. OH: 9%
Fulton Co. OH: 22%
Wayne Co. OH: 15%
Geauga Co. OH: 22%
Elkhart Co. IN: 15%
LaGrange Co. IN: 10%
Adams Co. IN: 15%
McPherson Co. KS: 23%
Harvey Co. KS: 20%
Washington Co. IA: 22%

In Holmes Co., there's no need to get a vaccine, because people are healthy, the hospital is nice and empty (I had reason to be in a hospital facility a few weeks ago in that region and most of rooms were empty), and most people gained immunity to COVID the best way: using your body's natural immune system, just like works well with colds and flus, which, incidentally, don't have any vaccine at all, or don't have a very effective vaccine.

If the rest of the world could be like Holmes Co., a lot of people would be a lot happier and more well-off. I'm not saying correlation is causation, but it does seem interesting the a place with very low vaccination, not much mask wearing, and no social distancing is doing so well when other places like New York City or NJ are a disaster and continue to be a disaster.

Are you going to lock down Holmes Co. and prevent any visitors or tourists from coming from places like NYC or NJ this summer?

[RZehr]

Why? Most people in those counties already had it, so it’s not like they are going to catch Covid from the tourist from NYC and NJ.

[Soloist]

Since it seems evident that CM's and Amish likely on a large scale are going to refuse the vaccine, what route forward do you think is the most equitable and science based approach to this Ken?

With that question, there remains two main points... 1: how long does vaccine immunity last? and 2: how long does natural immunity last? Both have not had enough time to adequately determine but scientific research has shown that generally natural immunity lasts longer.

Edit: two relevant studies...
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2103916
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-res ... y-covid-19

[Ken]

Since it seems evident that CM's and Amish likely on a large scale are going to refuse the vaccine, what route forward do you think is the most equitable and science based approach to this Ken?

With that question, there remains two main points... 1: how long does vaccine immunity last? and 2: how long does natural immunity last? Both have not had enough time to adequately determine but scientific research has shown that generally natural immunity lasts longer.

I think the choice is get vaccinated or get Covid. If not this year then next year or the next. This disease is far too infectious to be able to hide out from it forever. But now that vaccines are available it is actually a choice. So that is an enormous improvement over 2020.

I do expect certain jobs and activities to require the vaccine as a condition of participating. That is nothing new. So schools and universities are likely to require vaccinations, not just of Covid but other communicable diseases as well. And certain professions are likely to require it such as health care, which already requires other vaccines.

I also expect in the next month or so that vaccination efforts will suddenly switch from managing access via tiers and signups and such to promoting vaccination for the reluctant. So lots of public service announcements by celebrities, athletes, politicians, etc. trying to convince people to get vaccinated. In some areas of the country we are already reaching the point where there is more supply than demand.

As for places like Holmes County? I expect there will be infrequent outbreaks from time to time in the future if vaccination rates remain low. Perhaps some vulnerable people will die unnecessarily and it will be their own fault. But that happens now all the time too. Smokers who die of lung cancer, reckless drivers who die in car wrecks. Just like we have measles outbreaks from time to time in places where vaccinations are low. But life will move on and no one will pay much attention if a few extra old people die in places with low vaccination rates. My wife is a physician and most of the deaths she sees are to some extent preventable. That's life.

I don't think Covid will ever be eradicated like polio or smallpox. It is too infectious and too widespread across the planet. I think we will eventually beat it back to low background levels and it will only crop up from time to time in outbreaks within populations that are insufficiently vaccinated. I expect most Americans will end up getting annual Covid boosters just like annual flu shots and those who don't want to do it will mostly be left alone unless they are attending public schools or universities or in certain professions that require it.

The science-based approach would be to encourage everyone to get vaccinated. Including those who have already had Covid as the most recent studies show that a follow-up vaccination for people who have recovered does boost immunity.

As for equity? I'm not sure what the equity issues are if vaccines are universally available. That isn't going to be so much of a national policy issue as one for local communities. Are they going to protect the most vulnerable individuals among them or not?

[Soloist]

I think the choice is get vaccinated or get Covid. If not this year then next year or the next. This disease is far too infectious to be able to hide out from it forever. But now that vaccines are available it is actually a choice. So that is an enormous improvement over 2020.

I do expect certain jobs and activities to require the vaccine as a condition of participating. That is nothing new. So schools and universities are likely to require vaccinations, not just of Covid but other communicable diseases as well. And certain professions are likely to require it such as health care, which already requires other vaccines.

I also expect in the next month or so that vaccination efforts will suddenly switch from managing access via tiers and signups and such to promoting vaccination for the reluctant. So lots of public service announcements by celebrities, athletes, politicians, etc. trying to convince people to get vaccinated. In some areas of the country we are already reaching the point where there is more supply than demand.

I would tend to agree with your thoughts as the likely outcome. It will be interesting to see how many states remove religious exemptions following this. Right now though at the federal level, we are all protected from vaccines by reason of religious choices. Now if that lasts... thats another story.

That being said, your joke is a gross distortion of reality.

[Robert]

Row v Wade dictates that someone's medical history is no one else's business. It will block any vaccine passports as soon as they are challenged.

SO how will anyone know if I had it or not because I can't be asked if I have had it. HIPAA and ADA laws.

[Soloist]

Row v Wade dictates that someone's medical history is no one else's business. It will block any vaccine passports as soon as they are challenged.

SO how will anyone know if I had it or not because I can't be asked if I have had it. HIPPA laws.

Well... in terms of business you work for... its a little different.

[KrisKramer]

Row v Wade dictates that someone's medical history is no one else's business. It will block any vaccine passports as soon as they are challenged.

SO how will anyone know if I had it or not because I can't be asked if I have had it. HIPAA and ADA laws.

How does that work when it comes to other shots then? Schools are allowed to demand children's vaccination records every year. How is this different then that?